Incoprea Theory
Volume XVIII · 30 October 2026

Eleven biomes · nine claims each · not peer reviewed

Ninety-nine theories, sorted by habitat

Eleven biomes, nine claims each. The earlier volumes treated ecology as one discipline; this one treats each habitat as its own laboratory, because the constraints that organise a bog are not the constraints that organise a savanna.

99theories
11biomes
99predictions
99refutations

Polar & Sea Ice

9
01

Albedo Tips on PondsSea ice albedo

The ice-albedo feedback tips at a critical melt-pond fraction, not at a critical temperature, so the same warming produces very different ice loss depending on pond coverage.

02

Body Condition Is a Season RatioPolar bears

Polar bear body condition is set by the ratio of ice-free days to hunting days rather than by total ice extent.

03

Thickness Is a BalanceIce thickness

The thickness distribution of sea ice is set by the ratio of deformation to thermal growth, so a thinner pack can be more variable without being warmer.

04

Polynyas Need HeatPolynyas

Coastal polynyas remain open only while the ratio of ocean heat flux to atmospheric cooling exceeds a threshold, so they close abruptly when cooling intensifies.

05

Bottom Water Is a Salinity RatioAntarctic bottom water

Antarctic bottom water formation is set by the ratio of brine rejection to meltwater input rather than by surface temperature.

06

Blooms Need LightUnder-ice blooms

Under-ice phytoplankton blooms occur only above a threshold in light transmission, set by snow depth relative to ice thickness.

07

Ice Algae Follow the SnowIce algae

Ice algal production is set by the ratio of snow depth to ice thickness, with an optimum where light reaches the bottom of the ice without melting it.

08

Stratification Follows DischargeArctic shelves

Coastal stratification in the Arctic is set by the ratio of river discharge to wind mixing, so a windy year can erase a large freshwater input.

09

Permafrost Loss Is a Depth RatioPermafrost carbon

Carbon release from thawing permafrost is set by the ratio of thaw depth to active layer depth, not by the absolute area thawed.

Boreal Forest

9
10

Treeline Is a Degree-to-Frost RatioTreeline

The boreal treeline is set by the ratio of growing degree days to frost damage rather than by temperature alone.

11

Fire Interval Is a Fuel RatioFire regime

The boreal fire return interval is set by the ratio of fuel accumulation rate to decomposition rate rather than by climate alone.

12

Peat Is an ImbalancePeatlands

Peat accumulation occurs only where the ratio of plant production to decay exceeds one by a margin set by waterlogging.

13

Outbreaks Need Stressed HostsInsect outbreaks

Boreal insect outbreaks occur when the ratio of drought stress to host defence exceeds a threshold, not when insect populations are large.

14

Lichen Needs a RestReindeer lichen

Lichen recovery after fire requires a threshold in the ratio of recovery time to grazing pressure, so heavy grazing can prevent recovery entirely.

15

Boreal Carbon Tips in WinterForest carbon

The boreal forest carbon balance tips from sink to source above a winter warming threshold, because soil respiration responds while photosynthesis does not.

16

Moss Follows Light and WaterForest floor

Moss dominance on the boreal forest floor is set by the ratio of light transmission to moisture, so a thinned canopy can reduce moss despite more light.

17

Lakes Emit What They Cannot ProcessBoreal lakes

Boreal lake carbon emission is set by the ratio of terrestrial carbon import to in-lake processing rather than by import alone.

18

Advance Needs SurvivorsTreeline advance

Treeline advance is set by the ratio of seedling establishment to herbivory, so a warmer climate without reduced browsing produces no advance.

Temperate Forest

9
19

Diversity Peaks in the MiddleDiversity

Temperate forest diversity peaks at an intermediate disturbance frequency because both competition and mortality limit diversity at the extremes.

20

Masting Needs ReservesMast seeding

Mast seeding occurs only when stored resources exceed a threshold, so masting years follow years of high photosynthesis rather than years of warm weather.

21

Regeneration Tips on BrowseDeer browsing

Forest regeneration collapses above a threshold in browse pressure, and the threshold depends on light availability rather than on deer density alone.

22

Soil Carbon Balances Roots and MicrobesSoil carbon

Temperate forest soil carbon is set by the ratio of root input to microbial turnover rather than by litter input.

23

Leaf-Out Needs Both CuesPhenology

Spring leaf-out occurs when the ratio of accumulated forcing to remaining chilling requirement exceeds a threshold, so warm winters delay rather than advance leaf-out.

24

Edges Penetrate by GeometryEdge effects

The depth of forest edge effects is set by the ratio of canopy height to the fetch of the opening, so a small clearing has a shallower edge than a wide one.

25

Old Growth Needs GapsOld growth

Old-growth structure develops only above a threshold in gap formation rate, because large trees and deadwood require repeated small disturbances.

26

Invasion Tips on LightUnderstory invasion

Invasive shrub dominance occurs above a threshold in canopy openness, so a thinned forest can be invaded without any change in propagule pressure.

27

Drought Death Is Depth Against RiskDrought mortality

Temperate forest drought mortality is set by the ratio of rooting depth to hydraulic risk, so deep-rooted species survive droughts that kill shallow-rooted ones at the same site.

Grassland & Savanna

9
28

Savanna Is Fire Against RainTree-grass balance

The tree-grass balance in savanna is set by the ratio of fire frequency to rainfall, so a wet savanna with frequent fire has the same cover as a dry one without.

29

Productivity Is Season Against GrazingProductivity

Grassland productivity is set by the ratio of growing season length to grazing pressure rather than by rainfall.

30

Migration Follows Quality Against RiskMigration

Migratory herds move when the ratio of grass quality to predation risk falls below a threshold, not when grass is exhausted.

31

Grassland Carbon Is Root Against FireSoil carbon

Grassland soil carbon is set by the ratio of root turnover to fire loss, so frequent burning can offset a productive system.

32

Encroachment Follows GrazingShrub encroachment

Shrub encroachment occurs above a threshold in grazing removal, because grass competition is what keeps shrubs from establishing.

33

Tree Cover Is Rooting DepthTree cover

Savanna tree cover is set by the ratio of rooting depth to rainfall seasonality, so deep-rooted trees persist where rainfall is strongly seasonal.

34

Recovery Needs ReservesDrought recovery

Grassland recovery after drought is set by the ratio of seed bank to surviving tillers, so a system with few tillers and no seed bank recovers slowly.

35

Grazing Needs PatchinessGrazing diversity

Grazing maintains grassland diversity only above a threshold in grazing patchiness, so uniform heavy grazing reduces diversity despite high pressure.

36

Fire Emissions Balance DecompositionCarbon emissions

Savanna carbon emissions are set by the ratio of fire to decomposition, so fire-prone systems emit more than decomposition alone would predict.

Desert & Dryland

9
37

Stripes Need a Slope RatioVegetation bands

Desert vegetation stripes form only within a range of slope-to-infiltration ratios, appearing where runoff concentrates without eroding.

38

Pulses Follow Event SizeProductivity pulses

Dryland productivity pulses occur above a threshold in rain event size relative to infiltration capacity, so many small events add nothing.

39

Dust Needs Wind Over CrustDust emission

Dust emission is set by the ratio of wind shear to surface crust strength rather than by wind speed alone.

40

Shrubs Take Grazing GapsWoody encroachment

Woody encroachment in drylands follows a threshold in grazing removal, because grass roots are what exclude shrub seedlings from surface water.

41

Crusts Need a Disturbance IntervalBiological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts recover only when the disturbance interval exceeds the time needed to rebuild the community, so frequent trampling keeps them in an early state.

42

Dryland Carbon Is a Pulse BalanceCarbon exchange

Dryland carbon exchange is set by the ratio of respiration to assimilation in the days after rain, not by annual rainfall.

43

Oases Need FlowOases

Oasis persistence requires groundwater flow above a threshold, set by the ratio of recharge to evaporation from the water table.

44

Seedlings Need Big EventsEstablishment

Desert plant establishment is gated by the ratio of rain event size to seed mass, so large-seeded species need larger events to germinate.

45

Dryland Fire Needs ConnectivityFire regime

Fire in drylands spreads only above a threshold in grass connectivity between shrubs, so fuel amount matters less than its arrangement.

Tropical Rainforest

9
46

Rainforest Drought Is Depth Against SeasonDrought sensitivity

Tropical rainforest drought sensitivity is set by the ratio of rooting depth to dry-season length, so deep-rooted forests tolerate seasons that kill shallow-rooted ones.

47

The Sink Tips on Dry AirCarbon sink

The tropical forest carbon sink turns to a source above a vapour pressure deficit threshold, even at high soil moisture.

48

Regeneration Needs DispersersRegeneration

Rainforest regeneration requires a threshold in seed dispersal, so a forest that has lost its frugivores cannot recover its composition even if the soil and climate are intact.

49

Diversity Balances Niche and DriftTree diversity

Tropical tree diversity is set by the ratio of niche differentiation to neutral drift, so a forest with weak niches can still be diverse if drift is strong enough to delay competitive exclusion.

50

Lianas Follow DisturbanceLianas

Liana dominance increases above a threshold in canopy disturbance, because lianas exploit gaps faster than trees can close them.

51

Fragments Fail on EdgeFragmentation

Forest fragmentation causes biodiversity collapse above a threshold in edge-to-area ratio, independent of total area lost.

52

Leaf Flush Follows IrradiancePhenology

Tropical forest leaf flush is gated by the ratio of irradiance to soil moisture, so flush occurs at the dry-season peak of light if moisture permits.

53

Peat Needs WaterloggingTropical peat

Tropical peat accumulation requires a threshold in waterlogging, below which decomposition outpaces accumulation regardless of productivity.

54

Rainforest Fire Is Drought Against FuelFire

Fire enters tropical rainforest when the ratio of drought severity to fuel connectivity exceeds a threshold, so a dry year with fragmented fuel still does not burn.

Mountain & Alpine

9
55

Alpine Treeline Is a Season RatioAlpine treeline

The alpine treeline is set by the ratio of growing season length to frost frequency, not by mean temperature.

56

Diversity Peaks Mid-SlopeElevation gradients

Mountain diversity peaks at intermediate elevation because both area and climatic favourability are maximised there rather than at the base.

57

Phenology Is Gated by SnowmeltAlpine phenology

Alpine plant phenology is gated by snowmelt date rather than by temperature, so a warm spring under deep snow produces no advance.

58

Streamflow Is Snow Against IceMountain water

Mountain streamflow is set by the ratio of snowpack storage to glacier storage, so two catchments with the same precipitation have different seasonal timing.

59

Alpine Carbon Balances Season and GrazingAlpine grassland

Alpine grassland carbon is set by the ratio of growing season to grazing pressure rather than by temperature.

60

Rock Glaciers Need IceRock glaciers

Rock glacier creep occurs above a threshold in ice content, below which the debris behaves as a rigid mass.

61

Regeneration Needs a SourcePost-fire regeneration

Post-fire regeneration in mountain forest requires a threshold in surviving seed source, so a large severe burn can remain unforested for decades.

62

Soil Depth Balances Weathering and ErosionAlpine soils

Alpine soil depth is set by the ratio of weathering rate to erosion rate, so steep warm slopes can have thinner soils than gentle cold ones.

63

Avalanche Return Is a Load RatioAvalanche regime

Avalanche return interval is set by the ratio of snowpack accumulation rate to slope stability, not by snowfall alone.

Freshwater & Wetland

9
64

Methane Is a Microbial BalanceMethane

Wetland methane emission is set by the ratio of methanogenesis to methanotrophy rather than by water table position alone.

65

Bogs Need AccumulationBog formation

Bog formation requires a threshold in peat accumulation rate that exceeds the rate at which groundwater delivers nutrients.

66

Turbidity Is Nutrients Against GrazersShallow lakes

A shallow lake becomes turbid when the ratio of nutrient load to grazing pressure exceeds a threshold, so nutrient reduction without grazing recovery can fail.

67

Retention Is a Loading RatioNutrient retention

Wetland nutrient retention is set by the ratio of hydraulic load to wetland area, so a small wetland receiving high flow retains little regardless of its vegetation.

68

Pond Persistence Is a Time RatioAmphibians

Amphibian population persistence is set by the ratio of hydroperiod to larval development time, so a pond that dries a week earlier can eliminate a species.

69

Stratification Is a Wind RatioLake mixing

Lake stratification breaks down when the ratio of wind energy to density difference falls below a threshold, so a deep lake can mix in a windy year and stratify in a calm one.

70

Burial Is Deposition Against RespirationCarbon burial

Freshwater carbon burial is set by the ratio of deposition rate to respiration rate, so a productive lake can bury little if respiration is fast.

71

Restoration Needs ConnectivityRestoration

Wetland restoration succeeds only above a threshold in hydrological connectivity, because a disconnected wetland cannot maintain its own water regime.

72

Fish Follow Flow and StructureRiverine fish

Riverine fish assemblage diversity is set by the ratio of flow variability to habitat complexity, so a variable river with simple habitat supports fewer species than a stable one with complex habitat.

River & Floodplain

9
73

Deposition Is Supply Against DurationFloodplain sedimentation

Floodplain sediment deposition is set by the ratio of sediment supply to flood duration, so a sediment-rich river with short floods deposits less than a moderate one with long floods.

74

Channel Form Is Strength Against FlowChannel form

River channel form is set by the ratio of bank strength to flow energy, so a cohesive-bank river is narrow and deep where a sandy one is wide and shallow.

75

Flood Risk Tips on ConnectionFlood risk

Flood risk downstream increases above a threshold in floodplain disconnection, because floodplains that no longer store water pass the peak downstream.

76

Riparian Plants Balance Flood and DroughtRiparian vegetation

Riparian vegetation composition is set by the ratio of flood tolerance to drought tolerance, so flow regulation that removes floods favours upland species.

77

Removal Is Residence Against UptakeNitrogen removal

Riverine nitrogen removal is set by the ratio of residence time to uptake rate, so a slow river with modest uptake removes more than a fast one with high uptake.

78

Migration Is Erodibility Against FlowMeander migration

Meander migration rate is set by the ratio of bank erodibility to flow energy, so a moderate river in weak banks migrates faster than a large one in resistant banks.

79

Carbon Is Deposition Against DecayFloodplain carbon

Floodplain carbon storage is set by the ratio of deposition rate to decomposition rate, so a rapidly accreting floodplain stores carbon even if decomposition is fast.

80

Fragmentation Tips on DamsRiver fragmentation

Riverine fish metapopulations collapse above a threshold in dam density, because barriers fragment the network faster than recolonisation can compensate.

81

Downstream Starvation Is a Trap RatioSediment budget

Sediment starvation downstream of a reservoir is set by the ratio of trap efficiency to sediment supply, so a small reservoir with high trapping can starve a coast more than a large one with low trapping.

Coastal & Estuary

9
82

Turbidity Peaks on a GradientEstuarine turbidity

The estuarine turbidity maximum forms where the ratio of salinity gradient to tidal mixing exceeds a threshold, so a well-mixed estuary has no maximum.

83

Marsh Keeps Pace or DrownsSalt marsh

Salt marsh survival requires the ratio of sediment accretion to sea level rise to exceed one, and the margin depends on tidal range.

84

Mangroves Stop at FrostMangroves

Mangrove range limits are set by the ratio of frost frequency to propagule supply, so a single cold event can set a boundary that propagules cannot cross.

85

Seagrass Needs LightSeagrass

Seagrass meadow persistence requires light above a threshold set by the ratio of water clarity to depth, not by nutrient level.

86

Hypoxia Is Stratification Against DemandHypoxia

Estuarine hypoxia forms when the ratio of stratification to oxygen demand exceeds a threshold, so a well-mixed system can carry a large load without hypoxia.

87

Coastal Carbon Needs AccretionCoastal carbon

Coastal wetland carbon burial is set by the ratio of accretion to subsidence, because a drowning wetland stops accumulating.

88

Reefs Balance Salt and PredationOyster reefs

Oyster reef survival is set by the ratio of salinity to predation pressure, so low-salinity refuges persist where predators cannot.

89

Flats Follow Range and SupplyTidal flats

Tidal flat morphology is set by the ratio of tidal range to sediment supply, so a mesotidal coast with low supply erodes while a macrotidal one with low supply builds.

90

Nurseries Are Habitat Against RiskCoastal fish

Coastal fish recruitment is gated by the ratio of nursery habitat to predation risk, so restoration without predator management can fail.

Urban & Built Environment

9
91

Street Trees Need SoilStreet trees

Urban tree survival is set by the ratio of soil volume to crown size, so a large crown on a small pit dies regardless of watering.

92

Heat Island Tips on Green CoverUrban heat

Urban heat island intensity falls sharply above a threshold in green cover fraction, rather than declining gradually with vegetation.

93

Urban Diversity Is Area and ConnectionUrban wildlife

Urban biodiversity is set by the ratio of habitat area to isolation, so many small connected patches support more species than one large isolated one of the same total area.

94

Runoff Tips on ImperviousnessStormwater

Stormwater retention fails above a threshold in impervious fraction, because infiltration capacity is lost faster than storage is added.

95

Air Quality Is DilutionAir quality

Urban pollutant concentration is set by the ratio of emission flux to mixing height rather than by emissions alone.

96

Urban Carbon Balances Sealing and PlantsUrban carbon

Urban carbon storage is set by the ratio of soil sealing to vegetation cover, so a green city on sealed soil stores less than its canopy suggests.

97

Roadkill Is Traffic Against ContinuityWildlife movement

Wildlife roadkill is set by the ratio of traffic volume to habitat continuity, so a busy road through continuous habitat kills more than the same road through fragmented habitat.

98

Street Noise Is a Canyon RatioUrban noise

Noise propagation along a street canyon is set by the ratio of building height to street width, so a narrow canyon can amplify sound at height.

99

Use Follows AccessGreen space use

Urban green space use is set by the ratio of access distance to population density rather than by the amount of green space provided.

Why sort by mechanism

A field-by-field catalogue tells you what each discipline thinks. A mechanism-by-mechanism catalogue tells you what kind of argument a discipline is making, and lets you check whether the same argument holds somewhere else. Each family here is a distinct causal shape; the eleven instances test whether it generalises.

Entry page: porch.html. There is deliberately no index.html.

Publication records: source hashes · original README · original manifest · additive publication note

Original builder source downloads (not executed)