Theory 68/Freshwater & Wetland/Amphibians
Pond Persistence Is a Time Ratio
The claim
Amphibian population persistence is set by the ratio of hydroperiod to larval development time, so a pond that dries a week earlier can eliminate a species.
01Mechanism
Larvae must metamorphose before the pond dries; the ratio determines whether any cohort succeeds, and failures compound.
02Prediction
Persistence should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Persistence tracking pond area would remove timing.