Theory 75/River & Floodplain/Flood risk
Flood Risk Tips on Connection
The claim
Flood risk downstream increases above a threshold in floodplain disconnection, because floodplains that no longer store water pass the peak downstream.
01Mechanism
Storage attenuates the hydrograph; disconnection removes storage and raises the peak, so risk rises as connection falls.
02Prediction
Peak flow should track disconnection.
03Refutation
Peak tracking rainfall would remove storage.