Theory 04/Polar & Sea Ice/Polynyas
Polynyas Need Heat
The claim
Coastal polynyas remain open only while the ratio of ocean heat flux to atmospheric cooling exceeds a threshold, so they close abruptly when cooling intensifies.
01Mechanism
Open water loses heat rapidly; the polynya persists only if advection resupplies heat faster than it is removed.
02Prediction
Closure should occur at a heat-flux ratio.
03Refutation
Closure tracking air temperature alone would remove the ocean term.