Theory 01/Polar & Sea Ice/Sea ice albedo
Albedo Tips on Ponds
The claim
The ice-albedo feedback tips at a critical melt-pond fraction, not at a critical temperature, so the same warming produces very different ice loss depending on pond coverage.
01Mechanism
Ponds absorb where bare ice reflects; once the pond fraction exceeds the percolation threshold, absorbed energy sustains further melting without additional warming.
02Prediction
Late-summer ice loss should track pond fraction rather than temperature.
03Refutation
Loss tracking temperature at controlled pond fraction would remove the threshold.