Theory 02/Polar & Sea Ice/Polar bears
Body Condition Is a Season Ratio
The claim
Polar bear body condition is set by the ratio of ice-free days to hunting days rather than by total ice extent.
01Mechanism
Bears fast when ice is absent and gain when it is present; the ratio of the two periods sets the annual energy balance regardless of the absolute area lost.
02Prediction
Condition should track the ratio across regions.
03Refutation
Condition tracking ice extent would remove the timing term.