Theory 09/Polar & Sea Ice/Permafrost carbon
Permafrost Loss Is a Depth Ratio
The claim
Carbon release from thawing permafrost is set by the ratio of thaw depth to active layer depth, not by the absolute area thawed.
01Mechanism
Only carbon within the newly thawed zone becomes available; the ratio determines what fraction of the profile is exposed.
02Prediction
Release should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Release tracking thawed area would remove the depth term.