Theory 14/Boreal Forest/Reindeer lichen
Lichen Needs a Rest
The claim
Lichen recovery after fire requires a threshold in the ratio of recovery time to grazing pressure, so heavy grazing can prevent recovery entirely.
01Mechanism
Lichens grow slowly and are grazed; recovery requires growth to outpace removal over years, and the ratio determines whether that is possible.
02Prediction
Recovery should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Recovery tracking time since fire would remove grazing.