Incoprea Research

Original Theories Volume XXIX · science index

77 retained entries from the original 109. Original entry numbers are preserved. These are working hypotheses, not findings or proofs.

Field programme

• Theory 69 · Calcification Has a Threshold
  Calcification declines sharply below a threshold in carbonate saturation, rather than linearly with pH.
• Theory 74 · Adherence Mediates
  Most of the variance in diet trial outcomes is explained by adherence rather than by assignment, so intention-to-treat analyses understate effects.
• Theory 75 · Alliance Predicts
  Therapeutic alliance predicts outcome more strongly than treatment modality across trials.
• Theory 78 · Acclimatisation Has a Rate
  Acclimatisation is limited by the rate of ventilatory and haematological change, so ascent profiles differing in rate produce different failure at the same altitude.
• Theory 67 · Cascades Need Range Overlap
  Trophic cascade strength in exclusion experiments is set by the ratio of predator range to prey range, so wide-ranging predators produce weak cascades.
• Theory 66 · Drought Legacies Last Years
  Drought legacies in ecosystems persist for years after the event, set by the ratio of recovery rate to the frequency of recurrence.
• Theory 79 · Acclimation Tracks Plasma Volume
  Heat acclimation gains are set by the rate of plasma volume expansion rather than by total heat exposure.
• Theory 72 · Response Is Non-Monotonic
  Immunotherapy response is a non-monotonic function of tumour mutation burden, peaking at intermediate burden because very high burden produces immune exhaustion.
• Theory 70 · Mixing Can Be Forced
  Artificial mixing changes turnover timing but not the annual heat budget, so mixing alters biology without altering the energy balance.
• Theory 68 · Addition Saturates
  Nutrient addition experiments show saturation above a threshold in the ratio of added to native supply, beyond which further addition changes little.
• Theory 81 · Variability Improves Transfer
  Practice variability improves transfer at the cost of immediate performance, so retention and acquisition rank conditions differently.
• Theory 83 · Testing Beats Reviewing
  Retrieval practice produces more durable memory than equivalent study time, because retrieval strengthens differently from re-exposure.
• Theory 71 · Seeding Needs a Threshold
  Cloud seeding increases precipitation only when the ratio of supercooled water to ice nuclei exceeds a threshold, which is why trials disagree.
• Theory 77 · Cost Is Misalignment
  The metabolic cost of shift work is set by circadian misalignment rather than by total sleep loss, so shifting sleep without shifting the clock does not help.
• Theory 76 · Performance Tracks Debt
  Cognitive performance under sleep restriction tracks cumulative sleep debt more than nightly duration, so a stable short sleep is worse than a variable one with the same mean.
• Theory 80 · Load Needs a Threshold
  Muscle strength adaptation requires a threshold in the ratio of load to current capacity, so light loads with many repetitions do not build maximal strength.
• Theory 73 · Training Response Tracks Baseline
  Improvement in aerobic capacity from training is set by the ratio of baseline capacity to trainability, so the least fit improve most in absolute terms.
• Theory 65 · Warming Lowers Carbon Efficiency
  Long-term soil warming lowers microbial carbon-use efficiency, so warmed soils lose carbon faster than their respiration increase alone implies.

New analysis

• Theory 51 · Sound Tracks Function
  Acoustic diversity indices track functional diversity better than species richness, because signal structure reflects ecological role.
• Theory 42 · Selection Acts on Standing Variation
  Most detectable ancient selection acted on standing variation rather than on new mutations, because adaptation from existing alleles is faster.
• Theory 50 · Overlap Predicts Competition
  Temporal activity overlap between species predicts competitive exclusion better than spatial overlap.
• Theory 47 · Charcoal Records Fuel Continuity
  Sedimentary charcoal records fire frequency driven by fuel continuity more than by climate aridity.
• Theory 53 · Comorbidity Clusters Predict
  Readmission is predicted by comorbidity cluster structure better than by the count of diagnoses.
• Theory 55 · Concentration Predicts Propagation
  Supply shock propagation is predicted by input concentration better than by trade volume.
• Theory 58 · Dependency Depth Predicts Vulnerability
  A package's vulnerability rate is predicted by its dependency depth better than by its own code size.
• Theory 44 · Eddy Energy Tracks Wind Work
  Ocean eddy kinetic energy tracks wind work at the same latitudes rather than stored potential energy.
• Theory 49 · Turnover Precedes Loss
  Community turnover detected by eDNA precedes species loss by years, because replacement happens before extinction.
• Theory 40 · Ensembles Predict Allostery
  Whether a protein is allosteric is predicted by the width of its conformational ensemble rather than by its ground-state structure.
• Theory 61 · Errors Grow in Strain
  Forecast error growth is concentrated in deformation zones rather than distributed uniformly over the domain.
• Theory 39 · Expression Noise Predicts Response
  Cellular drug response is predicted better by the noise in target expression than by its mean level.
• Theory 60 · Failures Cluster Spatially
  Infrastructure failures cluster spatially beyond what age and load explain, because shared construction and soil conditions create correlated risk.
• Theory 52 · Selection Depends on Scale
  Measured habitat selection strength depends on the sampling interval, so studies at different intervals disagree without either being wrong.
• Theory 48 · Aerosols Record Wind
  Ice-core aerosol deposition tracks wind speed at the source region more than emission strength.
• Theory 43 · Carbon Tracks Height Variance
  Above-ground carbon is predicted better by the variance of canopy height than by mean height or area.
• Theory 41 · Gradients Explain Heterogeneity
  Intratumoural metabolic gradients explain more of the variation in drug response than genetic heterogeneity does.
• Theory 56 · Novelty Clusters Before Breakthroughs
  Patent novelty clusters in the years before a breakthrough, because recombinance precedes synthesis.
• Theory 45 · Seismic Noise Tracks Water
  Changes in seismic noise velocity track groundwater storage changes, because pore pressure alters wave speed.
• Theory 38 · Strains Turn Over Before Function Changes
  Microbiome strain replacement precedes functional change, so species-level stability hides a community already committed to a new function.
• Theory 46 · Tree Rings Record Dry Air
  Tree-ring isotopes track vapour pressure deficit more than precipitation, because stomatal closure responds to atmospheric demand.

Existing data

• Theory 04 · Aftershocks Follow Slip Heterogeneity
  Aftershock decay constants correlate with the heterogeneity of mainshock slip rather than with mainshock magnitude.
• Theory 33 · Policy Beats Technology
  Air quality improves faster after regulatory intervention than after equivalent technological turnover, because turnover leaves high-emitting outliers.
• Theory 06 · Punctuality Is a Buffer
  Airline on-time performance is set by scheduled turnaround buffer relative to actual turnaround variance, not by fleet age.
• Theory 35 · Bleaching Tracks Accumulated Heat
  Coral bleaching tracks degree-heating weeks better than peak temperature, because thermal stress accumulates.
• Theory 30 · Deterioration Tracks Trucks Per Lane
  Bridge deck deterioration tracks truck volume per lane more than calendar age.
• Theory 29 · Energy Tracks Area Per Occupant
  Building energy use per person tracks floor area per occupant more than building age or certification level.
• Theory 14 · Severity Tracks Treatment Age
  Burn severity in treated forests tracks the age of the fuel treatment more than treatment type, because regrowth restores fuel within a predictable period.
• Theory 37 · Cardiac Events Track Cooling Rate
  Cardiovascular event rates track the rate of temperature drop more than absolute cold, because rapid change stresses thermoregulation.
• Theory 16 · Demand Peaks Follow Humidity
  Electricity demand peaks track dew point rather than dry-bulb temperature, because cooling load depends on latent heat removal.
• Theory 23 · Scores Track Question Order
  Exam scores track the order of questions, because difficult early items consume time and reduce performance on later items.
• Theory 17 · Fatalities Track Speed Variance
  Road fatality rates track the variance of vehicle speeds more than the mean speed, because variance creates the interactions that kill.
• Theory 13 · Retreat Follows Bed Slope
  Glacier retreat rates track bed slope more than regional temperature trend, because slope sets how much thinning reaches the terminus.
• Theory 09 · Heat Islands Follow Sky View
  Urban heat island intensity is set by sky-view factor more than by green cover, because radiative loss dominates sensible cooling at night.
• Theory 03 · Ranges Lag Velocity
  Observed range shifts lag climate velocity by a fraction set by dispersal rate rather than by the magnitude of warming.
• Theory 18 · Resistance Tracks Volume
  Resistance prevalence tracks antibiotic prescription volume per capita more closely than hospital density.
• Theory 11 · Soil Carbon Follows Roots
  Soil carbon stocks correlate with root biomass more strongly than with above-ground litter input across forest plots.
• Theory 12 · Collapse Tracks Recruitment Variance
  Stock collapse probability is set by recruitment variability more than by fishing pressure, because variable recruitment removes the buffer that steady pressure would leave.
• Theory 32 · Delays Amplify Per Station
  Train delays amplify by a roughly constant factor per station stop, set by the ratio of dwell variance to schedule slack.
• Theory 02 · Effects Shrink With Sample Size
  Published effect sizes decline monotonically with registered sample size across a field, because small studies that reach significance are selected draws.
• Theory 31 · Breaks Track Pressure Transients
  Water main break rates track the frequency of pressure transients more than pipe age.
• Theory 15 · Yield Gaps Track Nitrogen Efficiency
  Yield gaps between farms track nitrogen-use efficiency more than total fertiliser application.

New facility

• Theory 96 · Depth Needs an Observatory
  Slow slip and tremor can only be resolved with sensors at depth, because surface records cannot separate source from path effects.
• Theory 92 · Decadal Warming Needed
  Whether warmed soil loses carbon depends on whether the response persists beyond the first years, which only decade-scale warming can establish.
• Theory 93 · Whole Catchments Needed
  Catchment storage responses cannot be inferred from plot experiments, because connectivity and groundwater lag only appear at catchment scale.
• Theory 100 · Fine-Scale Salinity Needs a Mission
  The effect of small-scale salinity fronts on ocean circulation cannot be resolved from existing satellites, because their footprint exceeds the front width.
• Theory 95 · Century Plots
  Forest compositional change cannot be resolved from decades of data when generation times exceed the record, so apparent stability may be lag.
• Theory 109 · Fusion Needs a Pilot
  Whether fusion plasmas can sustain net power cannot be settled by scaling existing devices, because the coupled physics only appears at reactor scale.
• Theory 98 · Lifelong Cohorts
  Diseases with long latency require cohorts that measure exposure from before onset, because reverse causation and recall cannot be excluded otherwise.
• Theory 102 · Mass Ordering Needs Baseline
  The ordering of neutrino masses requires a long baseline because the matter effect that distinguishes the orderings accumulates with distance.
• Theory 103 · Equivalence Needs Ranging
  Tests of the equivalence principle at the required precision need improved lunar laser ranging, because current ranging precision limits the measurement.
• Theory 107 · Whole Connectome
  Wiring principles cannot be inferred from partial connectomes because the cost-benefit trade-off is global, so a whole-brain map is required.
• Theory 108 · Minimal Cell
  The set of genes required for independent life can only be established by building a cell from a reduced genome, because knockout studies cannot distinguish essential from redundant.
• Theory 105 · Neutrino Floor
  Direct detection of weakly interacting dark matter below the neutrino floor requires a directional detector, because the neutrino background is otherwise irreducible.
• Theory 104 · Old Ice Needs a Core
  The relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature over earlier glacial cycles can only be tested with ice older than the current record, because the existing core does not reach it.
• Theory 106 · Strong Correlation Needs Quantum Simulation
  Materials with strong electron correlation cannot be predicted classically at useful accuracy, so new superconductors must be searched experimentally or on quantum hardware.
• Theory 101 · Slow Slip Needs Density
  Slow slip events cannot be resolved with sparse arrays because their signal is below noise at typical station spacing.
• Theory 97 · Lake Replication
  Whole-lake experiments require replication across lakes because lake identity explains more variance than treatment.
• Theory 94 · Multi-Generation Selection
  Selection responses measured over one generation mispredict multi-generation change, because correlated traits and density feedback accumulate.

Index narrowed to the focused science collection. Biological and ecological population dynamics, genetics, physiology and engineering are retained. Source numbering remains historical; no remaining hypothesis has been promoted to a finding.