Theory 32/Existing data/Railways
Delays Amplify Per Station
The claim
Train delays amplify by a roughly constant factor per station stop, set by the ratio of dwell variance to schedule slack.
01Mechanism
A late train meets more waiting passengers, lengthening dwell, which makes it later.
02Prediction
Amplification should be constant along a line.
03Refutation
Amplification varying without pattern would remove the mechanism.