Theory 98/New facility/Epidemiology
Lifelong Cohorts
The claim
Diseases with long latency require cohorts that measure exposure from before onset, because reverse causation and recall cannot be excluded otherwise.
01Mechanism
Latency means exposure precedes diagnosis by decades; retrospective measures are contaminated.
02Prediction
Prospective and retrospective estimates should diverge.
03Refutation
Agreement would remove the contamination.