Theory 06/Existing data/Aviation
Punctuality Is a Buffer
The claim
Airline on-time performance is set by scheduled turnaround buffer relative to actual turnaround variance, not by fleet age.
01Mechanism
Delays propagate when buffer is smaller than variance; older fleets with adequate buffers still depart on time.
02Prediction
Punctuality should track the buffer-to-variance ratio.
03Refutation
Punctuality tracking fleet age would remove the buffer.