Incoprea Research

Original Theories Volume IX · science index

38 retained entries from the original 44. Original entry numbers are preserved. These are working hypotheses, not findings or proofs.

Life, Medicine & Mind

• Theory 19 · Addiction Is a Competition
  Compulsive use emerges when the value of the drug exceeds the value of alternatives by a threshold, so interventions that raise alternative value should reduce use more than interventions that lower drug value.
• Theory 12 · Affinity Follows Dwell Time
  Antibody affinity maturation is set by the dwell time of B cells in the germinal centre rather than by antigen dose, so more dwell cycles per unit time, not more antigen, produce higher affinity.
• Theory 15 · Axons Fail at a Cargo Threshold
  Neurodegeneration timing is set by the cargo load on axonal transport rather than by the accumulation of a specific protein, so long axons fail first because they carry more cargo over a longer route.
• Theory 20 · Cycling Follows Circadian Amplitude
  The period of bipolar cycling is set by the amplitude of the circadian oscillator rather than by mood regulation, so rhythm-stabilising interventions should lengthen cycle time and reduce episode frequency.
• Theory 18 · Depression Is a Coupling Threshold
  Depression is a network state that becomes self-sustaining when coupling between mood-related regions exceeds a threshold, so treatment response depends on reducing coupling rather than on raising a neurotransmitter.
• Theory 16 · Durability Is a Cell Ratio
  Vaccine durability is set by the ratio of long-lived plasma cells to memory B cells at a threshold, so a vaccine that generates many memory cells but few plasma cells will lose protection quickly despite strong initial titres.
• Theory 17 · Aura Is a Potassium Threshold
  Migraine aura occurs when extracellular potassium crosses a threshold that sustains spreading depression, so susceptibility is set by potassium buffering capacity rather than by cortical excitability alone.
• Theory 14 · Persisters Tune to Treatment
  The persister fraction in a bacterial population is tuned to the duration of antibiotic exposure rather than being a fixed bet-hedging fraction, so longer courses select for higher persistence.
• Theory 22 · Reconsolidation Needs Surprise
  A memory reconsolidates only when the prediction error at retrieval exceeds a threshold, so retrieval that confirms expectations leaves the memory stable and cannot be modified.
• Theory 21 · Sham Effects Track Invasiveness
  Placebo responses to surgical intervention scale with the invasiveness of the sham procedure rather than with patient expectation, so trials with more invasive shams show larger placebo effects and understate the treatment.
• Theory 13 · Symbiosis Begins at a Distance
  Metabolic symbiosis in tumours begins at a threshold distance from the vasculature, so the fraction of the tumour in symbiosis is set by vessel spacing rather than by oxygen tension alone.

Society, Computation & Engineering

• Theory 36 · Autonomy Is a Tail Problem
  Autonomous vehicle safety is set by the frequency of rare scenarios rather than by average disengagement, so a system with better averages can be less safe if its failure tail is heavier.
• Theory 38 · Water Use Is a Wet-Bulb Ratio
  Data centre water consumption is set by the ratio of cooling load to ambient wet-bulb depression rather than by the cooling technology, so a site with a favourable climate can use less water with a worse system.
• Theory 44 · Rotation Follows a Detection Ratio
  The optimal interval for cryptographic key rotation is set by the ratio of exposure time to breach detection time rather than by a fixed schedule, so a system that detects compromise quickly can safely rotate less often.
• Theory 37 · Depth Beats Count
  System availability is set by the depth of the dependency chain rather than by the number of services, so a shallow system with many services can be more reliable than a deep one with few.
• Theory 39 · Resilience Lives at the Bottleneck
  Supply chain resilience is set by inventory held at the bottleneck tier rather than by total inventory, so a chain with large total stock but none at the constraint is fragile.

Physics, Cosmos & Matter

• Theory 10 · Casimir Forces Feel Patchiness
  Deviations from the ideal Casimir force are set by the correlation length of surface patches rather than by the materials, so two surfaces of identical composition can differ in force if their patch structure differs.
• Theory 04 · Cosmic Rays See a Horizon
  The anisotropy of PeV cosmic rays is set by a magnetic horizon imposed by the local void rather than by source distribution, so the arrival direction should track the void boundary.
• Theory 05 · Dark Photon Lines Are Broadened
  The width of a dark photon absorption line is set by plasma broadening along the line of sight rather than by the dark photon mass, so line width measures the electron column and can separate a detection from a noise feature.
• Theory 02 · Dispersion Measures Count Filaments
  Excess dispersion in fast radio bursts measures the filling factor of the cosmic web's filaments rather than the host galaxy's contribution, so bursts at the same redshift should show a spread set by sightline filament crossing.
• Theory 07 · Glitches Are Avalanches
  Pulsar glitches are avalanche events in a pinned vortex lattice rather than sudden unpinning of a whole region, so their size distribution should follow a power law and their waiting times a characteristic scaling.
• Theory 01 · Echoes Mark a Stiffening Point
  Post-merger gravitational-wave echoes appear only when the remnant's equation of state stiffens above a threshold density, so the presence of echoes is a composition test rather than a test of exotic compact objects.
• Theory 03 · The Mass Gap Is a Helium Fraction
  The pair-instability mass gap in black hole masses is set by the helium core mass fraction rather than by total mass, so stars with unusual envelopes can produce remnants inside the gap.
• Theory 08 · The Muon Anomaly Has an Onset
  A new light state contributing to the muon anomaly must produce an energy threshold, so the discrepancy should appear in low-energy measurements and vanish in high-energy ones rather than persisting uniformly.
• Theory 11 · Blinking Is a Percolation
  Quantum dot blinking is set by percolation of charge traps around the dot rather than by single-trap events, so blinking statistics should change with trap density in a threshold manner.
• Theory 06 · Neutrino Flavour Follows Turbulence
  Collective neutrino flavour conversion in a supernova is set by the turbulence spectrum rather than by the mean matter profile, so conversion should vary between otherwise similar explosions.
• Theory 09 · Vacuum Energy Depends on Topology
  The sign of the vacuum energy contribution is set by the topology of the compact dimensions rather than by the field content, so two theories with identical particles can predict opposite cosmological constants.

Earth, Climate & Energy

• Theory 31 · Geothermal Fades by Permeability
  Geothermal output declines because permeability falls as the reservoir cools and minerals precipitate, so sustainable extraction rate is set by a critical flow above which permeability damage outpaces heat extraction.
• Theory 30 · Heat Waves Need Dry Soil
  Heat waves require a soil moisture deficit threshold before they can amplify, so the same atmospheric setup produces a heat wave over dry ground and a mild spell over wet ground.
• Theory 26 · Seeps Follow Permeability
  Seafloor methane seepage occurs where sediment permeability crosses a threshold rather than where gas hydrate is dissociating, so seeps should be predicted from permeability structure rather than from bottom-water warming.
• Theory 24 · Monsoon Onset Is a Soil Gradient
  Monsoon onset is set by the soil moisture gradient between land and ocean rather than by sea surface temperature, so a dry spring can advance onset and a wet one can delay it at the same ocean temperature.
• Theory 25 · Ozone Recovery Is a Partitioning Problem
  Ozone recovery is limited by the partitioning of chlorine between reservoir and active forms rather than by total chlorine loading, so recovery can stall while emissions fall if partitioning shifts toward active chlorine.
• Theory 23 · Rapid Intensification Needs an Eddy
  Rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone requires an ocean eddy of a critical size relative to the storm, so the event should be predicted from eddy diameter rather than from sea surface temperature.
• Theory 32 · Reserves Are Sized by the Worst Loss
  Frequency containment reserve is sized by the largest credible loss rather than by the variance of imbalance, so two systems with the same variability can need very different reserves depending on their single largest contingency.
• Theory 33 · Salt Caverns Creep at Pressure
  Hydrogen storage capacity in salt caverns is limited by creep at a threshold pressure rather than by the cavern's geometric volume, so operating pressure sets the deliverable capacity more than the cavity size does.
• Theory 28 · Sea Level Hides a Groundwater Term
  A substantial part of recent sea level rise comes from groundwater depletion reaching a threshold at which aquifers compact irreversibly, so the rise should accelerate as aquifers cross it rather than tracking thermal expansion alone.
• Theory 27 · Volcanic Winter Is an Altitude
  The climate impact of an eruption is set by whether its sulfate reaches the stratosphere rather than by the mass erupted, so a moderate eruption that penetrates the tropopause can cool more than a larger one that does not.
• Theory 29 · Wind Droughts Follow Blocking
  Wind droughts are set by the persistence of atmospheric blocking rather than by mean wind speed, so the risk to a wind fleet should be predicted from blocking statistics rather than from average resource.

Index narrowed to the focused science collection. Biological and ecological population dynamics, genetics, physiology and engineering are retained. Source numbering remains historical; no remaining hypothesis has been promoted to a finding.