Theory 25/Earth, Climate & Energy /Atmospheric chemistry
Ozone Recovery Is a Partitioning Problem
Recovery is tracked against chlorine loading. The chemistry may matter more than the total.
Ozone recovery is limited by the partitioning of chlorine between reservoir and active forms rather than by total chlorine loading, so recovery can stall while emissions fall if partitioning shifts toward active chlorine.
01The evidence
Recovery has been uneven across altitudes and seasons, with some regions lagging despite declining chlorine.
02The tension
Models track total chlorine and predict proportional recovery. The unevenness is attributed to dynamics rather than to partitioning.
03The mechanism
Chlorine is active only when it is not bound in reservoirs. Temperature and aerosol surface area shift the balance, so the same loading can yield different active concentrations.
That makes partitioning the determinant, and predicts recovery should track the active fraction rather than the total.
04What this is not
Those models track the total. This tracks the active fraction, which explains stalls.
05Predictions
- P1Recovery should track active chlorine.
- P2Stalls should coincide with partitioning shifts.
- P3Aerosol changes should modulate recovery.
06Refutation
Recovery tracking total chlorine would restore the loading model.
07What it changes
It would change how recovery is assessed.