Theory 35/Decades/Antibiotic resistance
Resistance Spreads on a Generation Ratio
The claim
The population-level spread of resistance is set by the ratio of bacterial generation time to the rate of change in prescribing, so fast-changing practice outruns resistance even at high use.
01Mechanism
Resistance spreads by selection each generation; if prescribing changes faster than selection can fix, the advantage is transient.
02Prediction
Spread should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Spread tracking total consumption would remove the generation term.