Theory 41/Millennia/Sea level
Sea Level Lags Its Forcing
The claim
Sea level rise is set by the ratio of ice sheet response time to the duration of forcing, so a short warm period produces less rise than its temperature implies.
01Mechanism
Ice responds with a lag set by its thickness and flow; the ratio determines how much of the forcing is realised in the record.
02Prediction
Rise should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Rise tracking temperature would remove the response time.