Theory 48/Deep Time/Mass extinctions
Recovery Is Speciation Against Return
The claim
Recovery time after a mass extinction is set by the ratio of speciation rate to the interval between disturbances, so repeated events prevent recovery entirely.
01Mechanism
Diversity rebuilds through speciation; if the next crisis arrives before speciation restores richness, the system stays depauperate.
02Prediction
Recovery should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Recovery tracking extinction severity would remove the interval.