300 hypotheses

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Long-baseline atom interferometers treat the quadratic Zeeman phase as a term proportional to B² at the cloud centre and remove it by extrapolating the measured phase against bias field.

Mechanism

The interferometer samples ∫B(z)² w(z) dz along the arm-separation trajectory, with w(z) set by the atomic wavefunction and the pulse sequence, not B² at the centre. A field curvature term adds a phase that is not removed by bias-field extrapolation because it does not scale with the applied bias.

Discriminating observation

The residual phase after extrapolation should scale with a deliberately applied field *curvature* (quadrupole trim) at fixed B, and should change sign with the direction of launch.

Test

Existing dual-species apparatus; scan quadrupole trim at fixed bias field, compare ⁸⁵Rb and ⁸⁷Rb residuals whose w(z) differ.

Prior art

Hyperfine-ground-state-exchange evaluation of the quadratic Zeeman term (arXiv:2404.01199).

Refuted if

The extrapolated residual is independent of applied curvature at the 1e-9 rad level.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.ins-det

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Interferometric gravitational-wave detectors calibrate the actuation function by injecting swept sine or broadband lines and assume the response is linear in drive amplitude.

Mechanism

Electrostatic and coil actuators have amplitude-dependent stiffness and eddy-current lag; a calibration derived at large amplitude differs from the small-amplitude response that encodes strain. The bias scales with the ratio of calibration drive to the actual test-mass motion.

Discriminating observation

Reconstructed strain amplitude for a loud event should shift by a measurable fraction when the calibration is repeated at several actuation amplitudes; the shift should be quadratic in the calibration amplitude.

Test

Reanalyse public calibration-line data across amplitude settings in the same run.

Prior art

Detector-calibration uncertainty budgets in ringdown and spectroscopy analyses (arXiv:2610.11052, arXiv:2506.15979).

Refuted if

The reconstructed strain is amplitude-independent to better than 1e-3 across a decade of actuation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.HE

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Pulsar timing separates dispersion measure from achromatic timing residuals by assuming the cold-plasma ν⁻² law across the observing bands.

Mechanism

Multiphase-broadening and scattering delays are chromatic but not exactly ν⁻²; fitting a single DM to two bands moves part of the scattering delay into DM. The residual is temporally correlated with the scattering timescale, producing apparent red noise at the nanohertz level.

Discriminating observation

DM time series should correlate with independently measured scintillation bandwidth, with a sign fixed by the sign of (α_scatt − 2).

Test

Existing pulsar timing archives with simultaneous scintillation measurements.

Prior art

Chromatic noise treatments in pulsar timing arrays.

Refuted if

No correlation between DM residuals and scattering bandwidth at |r| > 0.3 across the array.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.IM

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

2

Baseline

CMB experiments calibrate beam solid angle and window functions on planets treated as point sources.

Mechanism

At frequencies where the planet's angular size is comparable to the beam, the convolution attenuates high-ℓ beam modes but not the total solid angle, so the same calibration produces a frequency-dependent beam *shape* error while leaving the peak correct.

Discriminating observation

The ratio of planet-derived to dipole-derived beam window functions should drift with frequency in a way that tracks planet disc size.

Test

Existing planet and dipole calibration products from a single instrument.

Prior art

Standard beam-calibration systematics in CMB analysis.

Refuted if

Planet- and dipole-derived window functions agree within errors at all bands after point-source correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

selection

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

The distance ladder corrects Cepheid photometry for blending using image-level crowding metrics calibrated on artificial-star tests.

Mechanism

Artificial-star tests inject sources at the detection threshold, so the recovered correction is conditioned on detectability; real blends are correlated with the Cepheid itself, which the injection does not reproduce. The bias is larger in the more crowded host galaxies and therefore correlates with distance.

Discriminating observation

The residual Hubble-diagram scatter should correlate with the local surface brightness at the Cepheid, and the inferred H₀ should shift when the most crowded quartile is removed.

Test

Public Cepheid photometry and crowding maps.

Prior art

Selection-bias corrections for time-delay cosmography and distance ladders (arXiv:2410.16171).

Refuted if

H₀ is stable to <1% under crowding-quartile resampling.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

quant-ph

class

assumption

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Richardson-style zero-noise extrapolation assumes the expected value is an analytic function of the noise scale with a leading linear term.

Mechanism

With 1/f or otherwise correlated noise, the leading correction is non-analytic in the scale factor (a fractional power), so Richardson coefficients amplify rather than cancel the error, and the extrapolated value moves *away* from the true one as more scale points are added.

Discriminating observation

The extrapolated estimate should be non-monotonic in the number of scale factors for hardware with measured 1/f spectra, but monotonic for white-noise-dominated hardware.

Test

Reanalyse published extrapolation datasets paired with device noise spectra.

Prior art

Finite-shot MSE bounds for Richardson extrapolation (arXiv:2605.08251).

Refuted if

Extrapolation error decreases monotonically with added scale factors on devices whose spectra have 1/f slope > 0.5.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

quant-ph

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Randomized benchmarking (RB) fits an exponential decay and reports a per-gate error that is interpreted as an average gate fidelity.

Mechanism

If the error rate drifts during a sequence (T₁ fluctuation, TLS hopping), the decay remains close to exponential but with a rate equal to the *time-averaged* error weighted by sequence length; because long sequences weight late times, the fitted rate is biased toward the error at the end of the experiment.

Discriminating observation

RB decay rates measured in forward vs reversed time order (or with interleaved idle periods) should differ by an amount tracking the measured drift.

Test

Existing RB datasets with timestamped runs on the same device.

Prior art

Standard RB theory; drift-aware tomographic protocols.

Refuted if

Forward and reversed RB rates agree within statistical error while independent drift monitors show >10% variation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R19 →

file

01-physics.md

domain

cond-mat.mes-hall

class

degeneracy

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

NV-centre thermometry converts the zero-field splitting shift into temperature using a calibrated dD/dT.

Mechanism

Axial strain and temperature both shift D; the two contributions are collinear for a [100]-cut ensemble but not for [111]. A single-axis measurement therefore reports a temperature error proportional to the local strain, and the error is invisible because strain is not independently measured.

Discriminating observation

Temperature readings from [100] and [111] ensembles on the same sample should disagree under applied stress and agree under stress-free conditions.

Test

Dual-orientation diamond with a piezoelectric strain stage.

Prior art

Pre-registered comparison of 23 NV thermometry methods reporting geometric blind spots (Zenodo record 21299294).

Refuted if

Both cuts track the same temperature within 0.1 K under 1e-4 strain.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R05 →

file

01-physics.md

domain

cond-mat.mtrl-sci

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Four-bar geometries are treated as removing contact resistance exactly.

Mechanism

When the metal pads have finite conductivity and the film is thin, current spreads into the pads, so the measured voltage drop includes a pad-mediated component that grows without bound as film conductivity approaches pad conductivity.

Discriminating observation

Extracted film conductivity should depend on pad metal and pad geometry at fixed film, with the discrepancy scaling as the conductivity ratio.

Test

Reanalyse four-bar datasets with varying pad metallurgy.

Prior art

arXiv:2602.02418 demonstrates unbounded systematic error in this architecture.

Refuted if

Extracted conductivity is invariant to pad material across a 100× conductivity range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.ins-det

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Detector efficiency is calibrated at low count rate and assumed rate-independent.

Mechanism

Afterpulsing and dead-time losses are rate-dependent; a calibration performed at 10 kcps applied to a 10 Mcps measurement overestimates efficiency by an amount set by the afterpulse probability and the hold-off time.

Discriminating observation

The ratio of calibrated to inferred efficiency should scale linearly with count rate with a slope equal to the afterpulse probability.

Test

Existing detector characterisation data with rate scans.

Prior art

Standard afterpulse/dead-time metrology.

Refuted if

Efficiency is flat in rate to 1e-3 up to the maximum operating rate.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

nucl-ex

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Beam and bottle neutron-lifetime measurements disagree at the 4σ level and are treated as a single-parameter discrepancy.

Mechanism

Beam experiments count protons from a defined volume but the proton extraction efficiency depends on the wall/foil condition; bottle experiments count surviving neutrons but the loss term depends on surface chemistry. The two methods therefore measure different combinations of the same two parameters (τ and wall loss), and their disagreement is a signature of a third, unmeasured surface parameter.

Discriminating observation

The beam/bottle discrepancy should correlate with the beam-tube surface history (coat time, vacuum exposure) even when the beam flux is constant.

Test

Retrospective correlation of published beam results with documented surface-condition metadata.

Prior art

The beam–bottle anomaly literature.

Refuted if

Beam results are uncorrelated with surface-condition metadata while showing the full discrepancy.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.EP

class

assumption

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Transit fitting uses a fixed limb-darkening law with coefficients interpolated from stellar models.

Mechanism

Limb darkening correlates with impact parameter and hence with radius; an incorrect coefficient biases radius in a direction that depends on b. Because the radius valley is defined by a population ridge, a b-correlated bias shears the ridge rather than shifting it, and the shear appears as a genuine slope in the valley.

Discriminating observation

The valley slope should correlate with the survey's impact-parameter distribution, and re-fitting with free limb-darkening coefficients should remove the slope.

Test

Public transit photometry with free vs fixed limb darkening.

Prior art

Limb-darkening systematics in transit spectroscopy.

Refuted if

The valley slope is unchanged when limb-darkening coefficients are free within physical priors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

SNe Ia distances use a linear standardisation with constant coefficients α, β fitted globally.

Mechanism

In the observer frame, redshift stretches the filter bandpasses, so the effective colour–stretch covariance changes with z. A globally fitted β therefore absorbs a redshift-dependent piece, producing a distance bias that grows with z and mimics a cosmological parameter shift.

Discriminating observation

β fitted in redshift bins should drift monotonically, and the drift should vanish when standardisation is performed in the rest frame with bandpass corrections.

Test

Public SN samples with per-object filter transmission.

Prior art

Standardisation systematics in SN cosmology.

Refuted if

Binned β is constant within errors and rest-frame refitting does not change the Hubble diagram residuals.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

assumption

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Hydrostatic mass estimates assume the gas is smooth and in hydrostatic equilibrium, and the resulting bias is parameterised as a single factor.

Mechanism

The bias factor depends on the ratio of clumping to thermal pressure support, which varies with radius and mass; a single factor therefore cannot absorb it, and the residual masquerades as a mass-dependent feedback efficiency.

Discriminating observation

The required mass correction should correlate with measured gas clumping (from X-ray surface-brightness substructure) at fixed hydrostatic mass.

Test

Existing X-ray plus lensing cluster samples.

Prior art

Hydrostatic mass bias and σ₈ tension forecasts (arXiv:2602.19478).

Refuted if

Residual mass bias is uncorrelated with substructure measures.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.GA

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Cluster velocity dispersions are computed from single-epoch radial velocities with a binary correction calibrated on simulations.

Mechanism

Binary broadening scales with orbital period; a survey whose cadence is shorter than the period sees a coherent velocity offset rather than broadening, so the correction over-subtracts and the dispersion is underestimated for compact clusters observed in one season.

Discriminating observation

The inferred dispersion should differ between single-season and multi-season data for the same cluster, with the sign fixed by the cadence/period ratio.

Test

Existing multi-epoch surveys.

Prior art

Binary corrections in stellar kinematics.

Refuted if

Single- and multi-season dispersions agree within errors at fixed cluster mass.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

quant-ph

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Sampling experiments claim advantage by comparing against tensor-network or MPS classical simulations at a fixed bond dimension.

Mechanism

The classical baseline is chosen to reproduce the *state*, while the quantum device's output is degraded by readout and crosstalk noise. At matched output fidelity the classical cost is lower than reported, and the gap closes as device noise grows.

Discriminating observation

Recomputing the classical cost at the fidelity actually achieved (not the ideal target) should shrink the reported advantage, with the shrinkage scaling as the device error rate.

Test

Reanalysis of published advantage datasets with fidelity-matched baselines.

Prior art

Classical-simulation benchmarking literature.

Refuted if

Advantage remains at matched fidelity across a decade of device error rates.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Frequency comparisons between fountain/optical standards assign a temperature coefficient to the cavity or the vacuum window.

Mechanism

The cavity's thermal expansion and the interrogation laser's fibre-path length have temperature coefficients of opposite sign; a single lumped coefficient fitted at one temperature cannot separate them, and the misassignment causes an error that grows with the temperature excursion amplitude.

Discriminating observation

The temperature sensitivity should depend on the *phase* of the thermal cycle relative to the interrogation sequence, not just on temperature.

Test

Existing clock comparison datasets with cavity and fibre temperature telemetry.

Prior art

Standard frequency-shift budgets.

Refuted if

Sensitivity is phase-independent at the 1e-16 level.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.optics

class

blind-spot

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Instrumental systematics are bounded by null tests that compare signal channels with expected-zero combinations.

Mechanism

A systematic that is common to both arms of a null combination cancels in the null but does not cancel in the signal, so null tests bound only the differential component. The common-mode part is unconstrained and can be larger than the quoted systematic.

Discriminating observation

Injecting a known common-mode signal into the hardware model should leave all null tests unchanged while shifting the science signal.

Test

Hardware injection campaigns with symmetric actuation.

Prior art

Null-test methodology in cosmology and interferometry.

Refuted if

Common-mode injections move at least one null test at the quoted sensitivity.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.HE

class

assumption

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray energies are reconstructed from fluorescence yield or from surface-detector signal calibrated against simulated showers.

Mechanism

At the highest energies the shower maximum moves above the detector level; the "calorimetric" fraction then depends on the unmeasured muon component, so the reconstructed energy carries an air-shower-model-dependent bias that is degenerate with the flux suppression.

Discriminating observation

The composition inferred from X_max should correlate with the energy-scale residual at fixed flux, and the correlation should differ between hadronic models.

Test

Existing hybrid datasets with X_max and surface signals.

Prior art

Energy-scale and composition systematics in UHECR.

Refuted if

Energy-scale residuals are uncorrelated with X_max composition proxies.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Clock comparisons correct for the gravitational potential using a geoid model and the clock's height, treating the apparatus as massless.

Mechanism

The clock's own vacuum chamber and magnetic shield displace several hundred kilograms within a metre of the atoms; their potential shifts the clock frequency by a few parts in 10^18. Because the correction is computed from the site's geodetic model, a transportable clock moved between laboratories acquires a site-dependent offset that tracks its own mass distribution.

Discriminating observation

Two clocks at the same height and site but with different chamber masses should differ by an amount proportional to the mass difference, and the difference should reverse when one clock's ballast is changed.

Test

Comparison of a transportable optical clock against a stationary one with deliberate ballast variation.

Prior art

Relativistic geodesy and clock-comparison budgets; self-gravity in fountain clocks.

Refuted if

The comparison offset is independent of apparatus mass at the 1e-18 level.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

time-dependent

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Loss of fringe contrast is interpreted as decoherence and used to bound anomalous coupling.

Mechanism

Slow thermal drift of the retro-reflector changes the fringe phase across the cloud; the ensemble average reduces contrast without any loss of coherence. The decay is therefore a function of integration time, not of separation.

Discriminating observation

Contrast should recover when the cloud is split into addressable sub-regions and each is fitted separately, with the recovered phase gradient matching the measured reflector drift.

Test

Existing imaging data with sub-region analysis.

Prior art

Standard contrast-decay analyses.

Refuted if

Sub-region fits show no phase gradient while contrast decay remains.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R18 →

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.IM

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Detector time constants are measured with a calibration source and extrapolated to sky load.

Mechanism

Transition-edge sensor response is electrothermal; the effective time constant depends on the bias power and hence on the optical load. A constant measured at high calibration load is shorter than the sky-load value, biasing the beam-map deconvolution for fast scans.

Discriminating observation

Time constants should vary with controlled load (aperture cover) with a slope predictable from the electrothermal model, and map transfer functions should depend on scan speed accordingly.

Test

Existing load-variation campaigns.

Prior art

Electrothermal TES modelling.

Refuted if

Time constant is load-independent within 1%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.IM

class

blind-spot

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Closure phase is used as a calibration-free observable because station-based phase errors cancel.

Mechanism

Any error that is common to all stations in a triangle (e.g. a global reference-frequency offset, or a correlated atmosphere) also cancels, so closure quantities cannot bound it while the visibility amplitudes can. The unconstrained common mode enters image reconstruction as a slowly varying background.

Discriminating observation

Reconstructions from closure-only and from amplitude-calibrated data should differ by a smooth background whose spatial scale matches the array's shortest baseline.

Test

Existing interferometric datasets reduced both ways.

Prior art

Closure-phase methodology.

Refuted if

Closure-only and amplitude-calibrated images agree on scales larger than the maximum baseline.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

hep-ex

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Long-baseline and reactor analyses combine a far/near ratio with a predicted flux.

Mechanism

The flux prediction enters multiplicatively and is degenerate with the overall normalisation, which in turn couples to the matter-effect term that distinguishes orderings. A 1% flux-shape difference at the first oscillation maximum can shift the ordering significance by more than the quoted systematic because it is fitted as a normalisation rather than a shape.

Discriminating observation

The ordering Δχ² should vary across published flux models by more than the stated systematic, and the variation should track the flux shape at the first maximum.

Test

Reanalysis with alternative flux models.

Prior art

Reactor flux-model comparisons.

Refuted if

Δχ² is stable to <0.5 across models.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

gr-qc

class

assumption

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Ringdown spectroscopy fits a sum of quasinormal modes starting at a fixed time after the peak, assuming the start time is early enough for linear theory.

Mechanism

The nonlinear merger remnant contributes a power-law-in-time component with the same frequency as the fundamental; fitting a sum of exponentials to a power law + exponential mixture assigns the mismatch to the first overtone, biasing its amplitude and the inferred remnant parameters.

Discriminating observation

Overtone amplitudes should depend on start time in a way that follows a power law rather than the predicted exponential, and the dependence should be stronger for louder events.

Test

Reanalysis of public ringdown data with a power-law component included.

Prior art

Ringdown calibration-uncertainty studies (arXiv:2610.11052).

Refuted if

Overtone amplitudes are start-time independent once calibration uncertainty is marginalised.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.optics

class

calibration-degeneracy

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Squeezing is characterised by homodyne detection at a pick-off and the number is transferred to the interferometer's sensitivity.

Mechanism

The pick-off has different mode-matching and loss than the main path, so the detected quadrature variance is a different combination of the same two quadratures. The quoted squeezing is therefore a projection, not the in-loop value.

Discriminating observation

In-loop squeezing inferred from sensitivity should differ from pick-off squeezing by a factor predictable from the measured mode-matching, and the discrepancy should scale with the mismatch.

Test

Existing squeezing benchmarks with mode-matching telemetry.

Prior art

Squeezing calibration methodology.

Refuted if

Pick-off and in-loop squeezing agree within 0.1 dB across mode-matching values.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.SR

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

1D LTE abundances are corrected to 3D non-LTE using a correction computed for a reference line and interpolated in Teff/log g.

Mechanism

The correction depends strongly on line strength and excitation potential; interpolating from a weak reference line to strong lines over-corrects, producing an abundance trend with equivalent width that is currently absorbed into microturbulence.

Discriminating observation

After correction, abundance should be independent of equivalent width; if a residual slope remains that correlates with line strength, the correction is mis-specified.

Test

Existing high-resolution stellar spectra with many lines per star.

Prior art

3D non-LTE abundance corrections; survey abundance scale work (arXiv:2501.06140).

Refuted if

Corrected abundances show no residual slope with reduced width beyond the quoted errors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Shear multiplicative bias is calibrated as a scalar per tomographic bin.

Mechanism

The bias depends on the ratio of galaxy radius to PSF radius; because angular size scales with distance, the ratio is redshift-dependent within a bin, so a scalar correction leaves a redshift-dependent residual that mimics a growth-rate modification.

Discriminating observation

Residual shear bias should correlate with galaxy size at fixed redshift, and the recovered S₈ should shift when size is used as a covariate.

Test

Existing image simulations and survey catalogues.

Prior art

Shear calibration methodology.

Refuted if

Residual bias is uncorrelated with size after scalar correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

gr-qc

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Bright sirens give H₀ from the GW distance and the host redshift, with lensing treated as a symmetric scatter.

Mechanism

Magnification is not symmetric: the observed luminosity distance distribution is skewed by demagnification of unlensed lines of sight. Assuming symmetry biases the distance at second order, and the bias grows with the number of events because it does not average out.

Discriminating observation

H₀ inferred from bright sirens should drift with the maximum distance of the sample in a direction fixed by the skewness.

Test

Catalogue-level reanalysis with an asymmetric magnification prior.

Prior art

Systematics costs in dark-siren cosmology (arXiv:2602.14898).

Refuted if

H₀ is unchanged under asymmetric magnification priors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.GA

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Distance indicators are cross-calibrated in overlapping anchors and the residual scatter is attributed to intrinsic scatter.

Mechanism

Both indicators rely on photometry near the bright end of the detector's linear range; a shared nonlinearity near saturation biases bright calibrators low and faint calibrators high, producing an apparent zero-point offset that depends on the magnitude distribution of each indicator.

Discriminating observation

The offset should correlate with the fraction of near-saturation pixels in the calibration images, and should vanish when only unsaturated calibrators are used.

Test

Reanalysis with pixel-level flags.

Prior art

Detector-linearity systematics in photometry.

Refuted if

Zero-point offsets are unchanged when saturated calibrators are removed.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Subhalo boost factors are measured in simulations and extrapolated below the resolution limit with a power-law index.

Mechanism

Missing large-scale modes suppress the low-mass subhalo abundance; because the suppression depends on the box size and on the power-law index, the extrapolated boost is a function of box size, and different observables (annihilation ∝ ρ², lensing ∝ ρ) weight the missing modes differently.

Discriminating observation

The boost measured in boxes of different size should converge only when the missing-mode fraction is below the quoted error, and the convergence rate should differ between ρ and ρ² weightings.

Test

Existing simulation suites with varying box size at fixed resolution.

Prior art

Convergence studies in structure formation.

Refuted if

ρ² boost is box-size independent at fixed resolution.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Residual gas pressure is measured at one gauge and the associated phase shift is computed from that number.

Mechanism

The gauge sits outside the interferometer chamber; the local pressure in the cloud region is set by a conductance ratio that depends on temperature and on the getter state. A uniform pressure assumption therefore underestimates the shift by a factor that drifts as the getter saturates.

Discriminating observation

The inferred background phase should drift monotonically with getter age at fixed gauge reading.

Test

Existing apparatus logs with getter history.

Prior art

Vacuum systematics in atom interferometry.

Refuted if

Background phase is uncorrelated with getter age.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

quant-ph

class

blind-spot

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Qubit excited-state population is attributed to the mixing-chamber temperature, and residual population is treated as a fixed offset.

Mechanism

The qubit mode couples to a lossy element whose local density of states is hot at the qubit frequency; the effective temperature is set by the noise spectral density at ω_q, not by the phonon bath at the mixing chamber. A thermometer at the mixing chamber therefore cannot observe the relevant quantity.

Discriminating observation

Qubit population should be independent of mixing-chamber temperature but should track a separately measured noise spectral density at ω_q (e.g. from a nearby resonator).

Test

Existing devices with both qubit and resonator noise measurements.

Prior art

Qubit quasiparticle and TLS loss literature.

Refuted if

Qubit population tracks mixing-chamber temperature while resonator noise at ω_q is constant.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

circularity

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

H₀ from the local flow uses distances calibrated in a sample whose selection is defined by the same velocity field.

Mechanism

The sample selection (e.g. minimum distance or velocity dispersion cut) is correlated with the peculiar velocity used to correct the distances; the correction and the selection therefore partially cancel, flattening the inferred flow and biasing H₀ low.

Discriminating observation

H₀ should vary with the selection threshold in a way predicted by the cancellation, and should stabilise when selection is made in a velocity-independent way.

Test

Reanalysis with alternative selections.

Prior art

Cosmic-void and local-flow H₀ analyses (arXiv:2607.20257).

Refuted if

H₀ is selection-threshold independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.optics

class

assumption

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Retrievals assume the instrument slit function is Gaussian with a width measured from a narrow-line lamp.

Mechanism

Real slit functions have asymmetric wings; for optically thick lines the wings sample the line core, so the retrieved column is a nonlinear functional of the wing fraction and cannot be absorbed by a width parameter.

Discriminating observation

Retrievals from the same scene at two instrument temperatures (which change the wing fraction) should differ, with the difference scaling with line optical depth.

Test

Existing retrievals with instrument-temperature telemetry.

Prior art

Slit-function systematics in trace-gas retrievals.

Refuted if

Retrieved columns are temperature-independent to within the stated error.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

nucl-ex

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

The radius is extracted by fitting a polynomial in Q² to form-factor data and taking the slope at Q²=0.

Mechanism

The fit range extends beyond the region where the polynomial is valid; the curvature term absorbs part of the slope, so the extracted radius depends on Q²_max. Because electron and muon datasets have different Q² coverage, they are biased differently.

Discriminating observation

The extracted radius should drift with Q²_max, and the drift should differ between the two datasets in the direction of their coverage difference.

Test

Reanalysis of published form-factor data with a controlled fit range.

Prior art

Form-factor extraction methodology.

Refuted if

Radius is stable to <0.005 fm across Q²_max from 0.02 to 0.2 GeV².

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.ins-det

class

extrapolation

readiness

3

novelty

2

Baseline

Birks' constant is fitted to beam data at a fixed particle type and applied to mixed fields.

Mechanism

Quenching depends on the differential energy-loss spectrum, not on the total dE/dx; a mixed field with the same mean dE/dx but a different spectrum has a different light yield. The correction is therefore a function of the spectral hardness, which is not measured.

Discriminating observation

Light yield per unit deposited energy should differ between fields with matched mean dE/dx but different spectra (e.g. protons vs electrons at matched stopping power).

Test

Existing dual-particle calibration data.

Prior art

Birks' law and its limits.

Refuted if

Light yield at matched mean dE/dx agrees within 1% across particle types.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.atom-ph

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

The nEDM extraction assumes the motional magnetic field (v×E/c²) is suppressed by the dressing field and bounded by a measured gradient.

Mechanism

The suppression depends on the Larmor frequency relative to the dressing-field modulation; at the operating point the residual is second order in the gradient but first order in its *curvature*, which is not measured. A curved gradient therefore produces a false EDM with a signature that is odd in the dressing-field direction.

Discriminating observation

The false EDM should reverse sign with dressing-field direction and should scale with the measured gradient curvature rather than its magnitude.

Test

Existing apparatus with gradient-map data.

Prior art

nEDM systematics literature.

Refuted if

The false EDM is uncorrelated with gradient curvature.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.HE

class

degeneracy

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

EBL density is inferred from the attenuation of TeV spectra, assuming the cascade energy is lost to the intergalactic medium.

Mechanism

If the intergalactic field is strong enough to deflect cascade electrons into a halo, the cascade emission appears as an extended halo rather than as a point-source flux; the point-source-only analysis then attributes the missing flux to EBL absorption, overestimating EBL where halos are unresolved.

Discriminating observation

EBL estimates from point-source fits should correlate with the resolved-halo fraction of the sample, and should decrease when halos are included.

Test

Existing TeV spectra with halo measurements.

Prior art

Cascade-halo and EBL literature.

Refuted if

EBL estimates are unchanged by halo inclusion.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.SR

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Periods are found by autocorrelation or Lomb–Scargle peak of the light curve.

Mechanism

Two active longitudes separated by ~180° produce a light curve with two minima per rotation; if the spot pattern evolves on a timescale comparable to the baseline, the second harmonic is suppressed and the fundamental dominates, but if it does not, the harmonic dominates and the period is halved. The transition is a function of baseline, not of rotation.

Discriminating observation

The retrieved period should change by a factor of two as the baseline crosses the spot-evolution timescale, at fixed star.

Test

Existing long-baseline photometry.

Prior art

Spot-modulation period-finding.

Refuted if

Periods are baseline-independent for stars with measured spot evolution.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.HE

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

The intrinsic fluence distribution is inferred from detected bursts after correcting for beam and threshold.

Mechanism

Dedispersion assumes a single DM per burst; intra-channel smearing grows with DM and width, so high-DM, broad bursts lose signal-to-noise in a way that mimics a steeper intrinsic distribution at the faint end. The inferred index therefore depends on the survey's DM distribution.

Discriminating observation

The faint-end index should correlate with the survey's median DM, and should flatten when re-analysed with sub-band dedispersion.

Test

Reanalysis of public burst catalogues with sub-band data.

Prior art

FRB population statistics.

Refuted if

The faint-end index is DM-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R27 →

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.IM

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Flux-scale accuracy is attributed to long-baseline calibration and to the primary beam.

Mechanism

Total flux is carried by the shortest baselines, where the antenna primary beam and the wide-field w-term are largest; a fractional error in the shortest-baseline gain moves total flux without changing the image shape, and it is not constrained by closure quantities.

Discriminating observation

Total flux should correlate with the shortest-baseline gain solution, and should differ between imaging with and without short baselines.

Test

Existing datasets imaged with and without tapering.

Prior art

Wide-field interferometric calibration.

Refuted if

Total flux is independent of shortest-baseline gain within errors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

physics.ins-det

class

degeneracy

readiness

3

novelty

2

Baseline

Muon radiography converts transmitted flux to density using a stopping-power model with an assumed composition.

Mechanism

Stopping power depends on Z/A and on the mean excitation energy; a compositional change produces the same flux deficit as a density decrease. Because both enter as a line integral, a low-Z anomaly and a void are indistinguishable without an independent constraint.

Discriminating observation

The joint density–composition posterior should be a ridge whose direction is set by the stopping-power model; adding a gravity or seismic constraint should break it.

Test

Existing muon tomography datasets with gravity surveys.

Prior art

Muon radiography inversion.

Refuted if

The posterior is compact in density alone.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

quant-ph

class

blind-spot

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Weak-value protocols infer a property's location from the shift of a pointer conditioned on post-selection.

Mechanism

The pointer shift is proportional to the weak value, which is a ratio of amplitudes; any protocol that adds a phase shift proportional to the same amplitude ratio reproduces the shift. Without a closure test that varies the coupling strength, the shift does not identify a spatial separation.

Discriminating observation

The pointer shift should scale linearly with coupling for a genuine weak value, but saturate or change slope for a disturbance-based mimic; a coupling-strength scan distinguishes them.

Test

Reanalysis of published weak-value data with coupling scans.

Prior art

Weak-value amplification literature and its critiques.

Refuted if

Coupling-strength scans show the predicted linear regime across two decades.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

gr-qc

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

LLR residuals are modelled with station coordinates, tidal displacement, and array centre-of-mass corrections.

Mechanism

The array's far-field diffraction pattern depends on its orientation relative to the station; as the Moon librates, the effective optical centre moves by a fraction of the array size. The effect is periodic at libration frequencies and is not absorbed by a constant centre-of-mass offset.

Discriminating observation

Station residuals should contain power at libration harmonics with amplitudes that differ between arrays of different size.

Test

Existing LLR normal-point data with libration ephemerides.

Prior art

LLR systematics literature.

Refuted if

Residual power at libration harmonics is below the noise floor for all arrays.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

cond-mat.supr-con

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Tc is reported as a material property with a measurement uncertainty dominated by thermometer calibration.

Mechanism

Mounting (glue, varnish, clamp) imposes a biaxial strain whose sign depends on differential thermal contraction; because dTc/dstrain is large for many unconventional superconductors, the sample-to-sample scatter in Tc is dominated by mounting strain rather than by stoichiometry.

Discriminating observation

Tc measured on the same crystal with two mounting media of different contraction should differ by more than the quoted error, in a direction set by the sign of dTc/dp.

Test

Same-crystal, two-mount comparison.

Prior art

Pressure/strain dependence of Tc.

Refuted if

Tc is mounting-independent within 0.1 K for a crystal with known large dTc/dp.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Foreground removal fits a smooth polynomial in frequency to the total sky spectrum.

Mechanism

The beam is chromatic, so the *observed* foreground is not smooth even when the sky is; the polynomial absorbs the beam-induced curvature, and the residual bias appears as an absorption trough whose depth depends on the beam's spectral index rather than on the 21-cm signal.

Discriminating observation

The recovered trough depth should correlate with the measured beam chromaticity across instruments, and should change when the beam model is fitted jointly.

Test

Existing global-signal datasets with beam maps.

Prior art

EDGES-era foreground-removal debates.

Refuted if

Trough depth is uncorrelated with beam chromaticity.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.HE

class

degeneracy

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

NICER-style analyses fit a blackbody-like hotspot with a fixed beaming (limb-darkening) law.

Mechanism

The beaming function enters the pulse shape in the same way as the emission radius for moderate inclination; a change in beaming can be compensated by changing R and M along a ridge. The quoted radius uncertainty therefore understates the true spread unless beaming is marginalised.

Discriminating observation

The posterior ridge direction should change when the beaming law is varied, and the radius credible interval should widen by more than the stated systematic.

Test

Reanalysis of public NICER pulse profiles with alternative beaming.

Prior art

Pulse-profile modelling systematics.

Refuted if

Radius is stable to <0.3 km across physically allowed beaming laws.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

cond-mat.mes-hall

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Scanning thermal microscopy maps temperature by calibrating the probe's resistance–temperature relation on a reference.

Mechanism

The probe–sample thermal conductance is comparable to the sample's spreading conductance, so the measured temperature is a weighted mix; the weight depends on contact area, which changes with topography. Contrast therefore tracks topography as much as temperature.

Discriminating observation

Reversing the scan direction should change contrast on slopes if topography dominates, while true temperature contrast should be direction-independent.

Test

Bidirectional scans on a patterned sample with known topography.

Prior art

SThM calibration literature.

Refuted if

Contrast is direction-independent on all slopes.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

01-physics.md

domain

astro-ph.CO

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Photometric zero points are fitted per season and per CCD, then marginalised as nuisance parameters.

Mechanism

The zero-point prior is Gaussian and centred on the calibration solution, but the true error is dominated by a common-mode atmospheric term that is correlated across the season. A Gaussian per-CCD prior therefore underestimates the correlated part, and the residual leaks into w at the level of the correlation length.

Discriminating observation

w should shift when the zero-point prior is replaced by a correlated (season-wide) covariance, with the shift scaling as the correlation fraction.

Test

Reanalysis with correlated calibration covariance.

Prior art

Photometric-calibration systematics in SN cosmology.

Refuted if

w is unchanged under correlated zero-point priors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R02 →

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

nonlinearity

readiness

5

novelty

4

Baseline

Impedance spectra are accepted when a Lin-KK residual is small, and the fitted charge-transfer resistance is reported as a material property.

Mechanism

For a memoryless Butler–Volmer interface shunted by a linear double-layer capacitance, the describing function is exactly a Debye element with an amplitude-dependent conductance, so it satisfies Kramers–Kronig identically at every amplitude. The KK test therefore passes while R_ct is biased low by x/(2I₁(x)), x = A/b.

Discriminating observation

R_ct fitted at 50 mV should be 11% below the value at 2 mV for a 51 mV Tafel slope, with the third-harmonic ratio I₃/I₁ tracking the bias.

Test

Amplitude sweep on a reversible redox couple; the protocol and bias law are computed in investigation I3.

Prior art

Kramers–Kronig validation practice; describing-function theory.

Refuted if

R_ct is amplitude-independent to 1% across 2–100 mV on a known Butler–Volmer system.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

C_dl is taken from the high-frequency arc and assumed to be a purely electrostatic property of the interface.

Mechanism

The faradaic branch is nonlinear, so part of its second-order response appears in quadrature with the fundamental and is absorbed into C_dl. The apparent capacitance therefore grows with amplitude even when the true double layer is unchanged.

Discriminating observation

C_dl fitted from impedance should increase quadratically with amplitude while the capacitive current measured by potential-step or by electrochemical impedance at fixed faradaic blockade stays constant.

Test

Two independent capacitance measurements on the same electrode.

Prior art

Nonlinear electrochemical impedance spectroscopy.

Refuted if

Impedance-derived C_dl is amplitude-independent on a system with a known nonlinear faradaic branch.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Tafel slopes are fitted to log(i) vs η after 85–90% iR compensation, and a change of slope with overpotential is read as a change of rate-determining step.

Mechanism

Residual IR adds a term that is linear in i, which on a Tafel plot produces a slope that *increases* with current and saturates; the apparent slope change occurs at a current set by the residual resistance, not by a mechanistic transition.

Discriminating observation

The break point should move with electrode distance and with electrolyte conductivity, while a genuine mechanism change should not.

Test

Vary Luggin position and conductivity at fixed catalyst.

Prior art

iR-compensation practice in electrocatalysis.

Refuted if

The slope-break current is invariant to cell resistance.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

circularity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

TOF is normalised by ECSA from double-layer capacitance or from underpotential deposition.

Mechanism

The ECSA probe (oxide formation, hydrogen underpotential deposition) reconstructs the surface, so the area measured before catalysis differs from the area during catalysis. Normalising by the pre-catalysis area biases TOF by the reconstruction factor, which is catalyst-specific and correlates with the very activity being ranked.

Discriminating observation

TOF should correlate with the magnitude of the pre/post ECSA change across catalysts, and should collapse onto a single curve when normalised by in-situ area.

Test

Paired pre/post ECSA on a catalyst series.

Prior art

ECSA normalisation debates.

Refuted if

TOF ranking is unchanged when in-situ area is used.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

k(H₂O)/k(D₂O) is interpreted as a proton-transfer kinetic isotope effect.

Mechanism

D₂O viscosity is 23% higher at 25 °C; for diffusion-influenced or diffusion-coupled reactions the rate falls with viscosity, so part of the isotope effect is hydrodynamic. The apparent KIE therefore exceeds the true one by the ratio of diffusion limits.

Discriminating observation

Adding a neutral viscogen to H₂O to match D₂O viscosity should reduce k(H₂O) by the same factor that is attributed to the isotope.

Test

Viscosity-matched KIE series.

Prior art

Diffusion-influenced kinetics.

Refuted if

Viscosity-matched KIE equals the raw KIE within 5%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

assumption

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Ea is from the slope of ln k vs 1/T over a range, often 20–40 K.

Mechanism

The true temperature dependence includes a prefactor T^n and a heat-capacity term; fitting a straight line over a narrow range biases Ea by an amount proportional to the range width and to n, and the bias has a fixed sign that depends on the sign of ΔCp‡.

Discriminating observation

Ea should increase with the fitted range width in a way fixed by ΔCp‡, and should converge only beyond ~100 K of range.

Test

Reanalysis of published rate series with wide ranges.

Prior art

Transition-state theory with ΔCp‡.

Refuted if

Ea is range-width independent across 20–100 K.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

chem-eng

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Selectivity is measured at low conversion to avoid secondary reactions and reported as intrinsic.

Mechanism

At low conversion the product residence time is short, so secondary consumption is suppressed; but the local concentration profile in the pellet also differs, and for reactions with a negative reaction order the low-conversion rate per site is higher. Extrapolating the selectivity to industrial conversion therefore overestimates it by a factor set by the Thiele modulus.

Discriminating observation

Selectivity should fall with conversion in a way that collapses onto a single curve when plotted against the Thiele modulus, not against conversion.

Test

Existing conversion-sweep datasets with pellet-size variation.

Prior art

Transport–reaction coupling in catalysis.

Refuted if

Selectivity–conversion curves are pellet-size independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Microdroplet and interface chemistry is interpreted with the bulk pH of the feed solution.

Mechanism

At the air–water interface the interfacial potential and the different solvation of H⁺ shift the local activity by up to several units, and the shift depends on the buffer's surface affinity. Reactions whose rate is pH-dependent then appear to have a different mechanism at the interface.

Discriminating observation

The apparent rate constant at the interface should depend on buffer identity at matched bulk pH, with a pattern set by surface propensity.

Test

Interface-specific spectroscopy with buffer series.

Prior art

Interfacial pH and microdroplet chemistry.

Refuted if

Interfacial rate is buffer-identity independent at matched bulk pH.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

computational-chem

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

CHE computes ΔG at U=0 and shifts by neU, assuming the solvent structure is unchanged.

Mechanism

At operating potential the interfacial field reorients water and changes the solvation free energy of adsorbed intermediates by 0.1–0.3 eV, which is comparable to the differences used to assign rate-determining steps. The CHE assignment therefore reflects the zero-field solvation.

Discriminating observation

Including explicit field-dependent solvation should change the predicted potential-determining step for a specific class of surfaces, with the change correlating with the intermediate's dipole moment.

Test

Field-dependent DFT on a published catalyst series.

Prior art

Constant-potential and grand-canonical DFT.

Refuted if

Potential-determining step assignments are unchanged by field-dependent solvation for all intermediates with dipole > 1 D.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

analytical-chem

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Isothermal titration calorimetry subtracts a blank titration to remove dilution heats.

Mechanism

The blank is measured in the absence of the host, so it lacks the host-induced solvent reorganization; the subtracted heat therefore removes a real contribution whose magnitude grows with titrant concentration. The fitted enthalpy is biased and the bias correlates with the fitted stoichiometry.

Discriminating observation

The fitted ΔH should drift with the titrant concentration in the cell at fixed host, and the drift should vanish when the blank contains host at a non-binding analogue.

Test

Concentration-series ITC with analogue blanks.

Prior art

ITC baseline practice.

Refuted if

ΔH is titrant-concentration independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

analytical-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Retention indices are computed relative to an unretained marker's elution time.

Mechanism

The marker (e.g. methane or a solvent front) has a small but nonzero retention on some stationary phases, and that retention changes with column age and water content. The dead time is therefore underestimated, which compresses all adjusted retention times by a factor that drifts with column condition.

Discriminating observation

The index of a standard should drift monotonically with column conditioning while the raw retention time is stable.

Test

Longitudinal QC data from a single column.

Prior art

Retention-index standardisation.

Refuted if

Indices are stable across column aging at fixed raw retention.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

photochem

class

calibration

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Apparent quantum efficiency uses the fraction of incident photons absorbed, from diffuse-reflectance or from the suspension's optical density.

Mechanism

In a scattering suspension the path length is longer than the cuvette thickness, so absorbance is overestimated but so is scattering loss; the two errors do not cancel for the fraction that actually reaches the catalyst. Values near or above unity then reflect a denominator error rather than multi-exciton chemistry.

Discriminating observation

Apparent QE should depend on catalyst loading and on stirring rate at fixed incident flux, in the direction predicted by the scattering correction.

Test

Loading and stirring series with integrating-sphere absorption.

Prior art

AQE measurement standards in photocatalysis.

Refuted if

AQE is invariant to loading and stirring.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

catalysis

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

¹³C/¹⁸O scrambling in products is attributed to surface-mediated exchange and used to infer intermediate pooling.

Mechanism

At the mass-spectrometer inlet and in the transfer line, adsorbed water and hot metal surfaces catalyse exchange; the residence time in the line sets the extent. The measured scrambling is therefore a function of the plumbing, not of the catalyst.

Discriminating observation

Scrambling should scale with transfer-line length and temperature at fixed catalyst and fixed conversion.

Test

Line-length variation with an inert catalyst.

Prior art

Isotopic transient analysis in catalysis.

Refuted if

Scrambling is line-length independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

FE = (moles product × nF)/Q_total, with Q_total from the potentiostat.

Mechanism

For copper and for carbon-supported catalysts, the catalyst itself is oxidised during intervals at open circuit and during the anodic swing; the resulting charge is counted in Q_total but produces no product. FE is therefore underestimated by the corrosion fraction, which depends on the duty cycle rather than on the catalyst.

Discriminating observation

FE should increase with faster switching and with lower anodic excursion, and the increase should equal the independently measured corrosion charge.

Test

Duty-cycle series with continuous corrosion monitoring.

Prior art

CO₂RR benchmarking protocols.

Refuted if

FE is duty-cycle independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

CE = discharge/charge capacity per cycle, with occasional rest.

Mechanism

Self-discharge and shuttle reactions continue during rest and during the slow portions of the protocol; the measured CE is therefore a function of the protocol's time-at-voltage distribution. Comparing materials measured with different protocols conflates chemistry with protocol.

Discriminating observation

CE should decrease with inserted rest time at a rate equal to the measured self-discharge current, and should converge when compared at matched time-at-voltage.

Test

Protocol series on the same cell.

Prior art

CE measurement standards for Li metal.

Refuted if

CE is rest-time independent to 0.1%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

analytical-chem

class

circularity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

K_a is from a fluorescence or absorbance titration fitted with a 1:1 binding model.

Mechanism

Binding changes the absorbance at the excitation wavelength, so the inner-filter correction changes as the titration proceeds; the correction is usually computed from the initial spectrum. The resulting curvature is absorbed into a nonzero cooperativity, so a non-cooperative system appears cooperative.

Discriminating observation

The fitted Hill coefficient should approach 1 when the inner-filter correction is recomputed per point, and the apparent cooperativity should correlate with the absorbance change at the excitation wavelength.

Test

Reanalysis of published titrations with per-point corrections.

Prior art

Inner-filter corrections in fluorescence.

Refuted if

Hill coefficients are unchanged by per-point correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

hysteresis

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

T_g is reported as a single number from a standard heating scan after a standard quench.

Mechanism

T_g is rate- and history-dependent; the standard protocol fixes the quench but not the sample's prior aging. A sample aged below T_g shows an overshoot endotherm and an apparent T_g higher by 1–5 K, so literature scatter is partly a history artefact.

Discriminating observation

T_g should increase with aging time below T_g and collapse onto one curve when plotted against fictive temperature measured by the overshoot area.

Test

Aging-series DSC.

Prior art

Structural recovery in glasses.

Refuted if

T_g is aging-time independent at fixed scan rate.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R15 →

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

A low-frequency capacitive tail or a ~45° line is interpreted as diffusion or adsorption.

Mechanism

Slow drift of the open-circuit potential over the minutes-to-hours of a low-frequency sweep produces a current ramp whose demodulated quadrature component is ∝ 1/ω. That is exactly the signature of a CPE or a Warburg-like element, and it is indistinguishable in a single sweep.

Discriminating observation

Repeating the measurement in the reverse frequency direction, or with a drift-corrected reference, should change the low-frequency tail while leaving the mid-frequency arc intact.

Test

Direction-reversed sweeps at fixed DC bias.

Prior art

Drift artefacts in low-frequency EIS.

Refuted if

Forward and reverse sweeps give the same low-frequency exponent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

synchrotron

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Edge energy is used as a linear indicator of oxidation state.

Mechanism

In fluorescence-yield mode, self-absorption distorts the edge shape and shifts the half-height energy by an amount that depends on concentration and thickness; the shift is of the same order as a 0.1–0.3 oxidation-state change.

Discriminating observation

The half-height energy should shift when the sample is diluted at fixed oxidation state, and should converge at low concentration.

Test

Dilution series of a mixed-valence standard.

Prior art

Self-absorption corrections in XAS.

Refuted if

Edge energy is dilution-independent within 0.05 eV.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

spectroscopy

class

degeneracy

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Peak position is converted to temperature using a calibrated coefficient, with strain neglected.

Mechanism

Both temperature and biaxial strain shift the phonon frequency; in an operando cell the strain state changes with state of charge. A single peak therefore gives a one-dimensional projection whose mixing coefficient depends on the material's mode Grüneisen parameter.

Discriminating observation

The two components can be separated using a second peak with a different Grüneisen parameter; the inferred temperature should change when both peaks are used jointly.

Test

Dual-peak operando Raman on a battery cathode.

Prior art

Raman thermometry in electrochemical cells.

Refuted if

Single- and dual-peak temperatures agree across the full state-of-charge range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

photochem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

TON = moles converted / moles catalyst loaded.

Mechanism

Photocorrosion and dissolution remove catalyst during the run; the active mass at the end is lower than the loaded mass, and in some systems the dissolved species are themselves active. TON is therefore a lower bound whose relation to the true per-site turnover depends on an unmeasured dissolution curve.

Discriminating observation

TON should scale superlinearly with loading if dissolution is a fixed fraction, and the dissolved fraction should correlate with the TON anomaly.

Test

Loading series with post-run solution analysis.

Prior art

Photostability benchmarking.

Refuted if

TON is strictly linear in loading for a photostable standard.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

spectroscopy

class

calibration

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Radical concentration is from double integration of the ESR signal relative to a standard.

Mechanism

The resonator filling factor and the dielectric loss of the sample change with temperature and with solvent; the standard and the sample are measured under different conditions, so the ratio carries a systematic that scales with the dielectric constant difference.

Discriminating observation

The inferred concentration should depend on the solvent's dielectric constant at fixed radical concentration.

Test

Solvent series with a stable radical.

Prior art

Quantitative ESR practice.

Refuted if

Inferred concentration is solvent-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Rates in micelles, vesicles, and porous catalysts are normalised by total volume.

Mechanism

Reactants partition into a small interfacial volume; the local concentration can exceed the bulk by 10²–10³, so the second-order rate law in bulk units shows an apparent rate constant that is not a constant and that depends on the partition coefficient.

Discriminating observation

The apparent second-order constant should scale with the measured partition coefficient across surfactants, collapsing onto one curve in local-concentration units.

Test

Surfactant series with measured partition coefficients.

Prior art

Micellar catalysis kinetics.

Refuted if

The bulk-normalised constant is surfactant-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Overpotential at fixed current is reported after conditioning.

Mechanism

Bubble nucleation site density depends on surface roughness and on prior bubble history; coverage reduces the active area by 10–40% at high current, and the coverage-relaxation time is minutes. A measurement taken before steady coverage overestimates activity.

Discriminating observation

The overpotential should drift downward for minutes after each current step, and the drift should scale with the current step size and with surface roughness.

Test

Chronopotentiometry with step-size variation.

Prior art

Bubble-coverage effects in gas-evolving electrodes.

Refuted if

Overpotential reaches steady state in <1 s at all currents.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R24 →

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

thermal-analysis

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Melting onset extrapolated to zero scan rate is taken as the thermodynamic melting point.

Mechanism

The extrapolation is linear in scan rate, but the lag has a term proportional to mass times rate that is not linear when the pan's thermal resistance is comparable to the sample's; the intercept therefore shifts with mass, and the standard protocol fixes mass only loosely.

Discriminating observation

Zero-rate extrapolated onset should depend on sample mass, converging only below a critical mass.

Test

Mass series with the same material.

Prior art

Calibration standards for DSC.

Refuted if

Extrapolated onset is mass-independent within 0.1 K.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

assumption

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

BET area from the N₂ 77 K isotherm with a Rouquerol consistency check.

Mechanism

For micropores narrower than ~1 nm, the BET monolayer capacity is not a monolayer; CO₂ at 273 K fills these pores differently and gives areas differing by up to 40%. Reported areas are therefore method-defined rather than geometric.

Discriminating observation

BET-N₂ and BET-CO₂ areas should diverge systematically for a series with controlled pore width, with the divergence signalling the BET breakdown.

Test

Series of carbons with varied pore width, both adsorptives.

Prior art

BET consistency criteria.

Refuted if

The two areas agree within 10% across the pore-width series.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

catalysis

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Ea is reported per catalyst and compared across loadings.

Mechanism

Higher loading increases the local reaction rate and the local heat/mass demand; if the pellet's internal diffusion is partly limiting, the apparent Ea is reduced by half for a first-order reaction, so the loading series looks like a change in intrinsic activity.

Discriminating observation

The apparent Ea should drop by a factor approaching two at the loading where the Thiele modulus exceeds unity, and should recover when the pellet is crushed.

Test

Loading series with crush tests.

Prior art

Weisz–Prater analysis.

Refuted if

Ea is loading-independent for crushed and intact pellets.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Surface pKa values come from acid–base titration fitted with a 1-pK or 2-pK model.

Mechanism

Charged surface groups create a potential that shifts the local H⁺ activity by a factor that depends on ionic strength; fitting without a double-layer term redistributes that dependence into the pKa, so the fitted pKa is an ionic-strength-dependent quantity that is quoted as constant.

Discriminating observation

The fitted pKa should vary with ionic strength in a way that vanishes when a charge-regulation model is included.

Test

Titrations at several ionic strengths on one oxide.

Prior art

Surface complexation modelling.

Refuted if

Fitted pKa is ionic-strength independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

photochem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

PLQY of a film is from an integrating-sphere measurement and is treated as an intrinsic property.

Mechanism

Emitted photons are reabsorbed with a probability set by the overlap of emission and absorption and by the film's optical thickness; the reabsorption can be re-emitted or lost to a non-radiative channel, so PLQY depends on thickness and on geometry.

Discriminating observation

PLQY should change with film thickness at fixed material, converging only for optically thin films, and the change should be predicted by the overlap integral.

Test

Thickness series with absorption/emission spectra.

Prior art

Reabsorption corrections.

Refuted if

PLQY is thickness-independent to 2%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Conductivity is reported for doped polymer films from four-point measurements and compared across dopants.

Mechanism

Hygroscopic dopants absorb water, which forms a surface conduction layer; the measured conductivity is then a parallel combination of bulk and surface paths, and it depends on ambient humidity during measurement and on film morphology.

Discriminating observation

Conductivity should vary with humidity in a way that scales with dopant hygroscopicity, and should drop when measured in dry atmosphere.

Test

Humidity-controlled four-point measurements across dopants.

Prior art

Doping and stability in conducting polymers.

Refuted if

Conductivity is humidity-independent across dopants of differing hygroscopicity.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

spectroscopy

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

The IRF is measured at the excitation wavelength or with a scatterer and applied to the emission at a different wavelength.

Mechanism

Detector transit-time and monochromator dispersion make the IRF wavelength-dependent by tens of picoseconds; for lifetimes below 1 ns the reconvolution fit absorbs the mismatch into a second decay component, producing spurious multi-exponentiality.

Discriminating observation

The fitted lifetime should change when the IRF is measured at the emission wavelength, and the number of required components should drop.

Test

Reanalysis of published TCSPC data with wavelength-resolved IRF.

Prior art

IRF correction in TCSPC.

Refuted if

Lifetimes and component counts are unchanged by wavelength-matched IRF.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

δ in ABO₃₋δ is from mass change, with buoyancy corrected using the initial gas.

Mechanism

Buoyancy depends on gas density, which changes when the atmosphere is switched between O₂, N₂, and CO₂; the correction computed for one gas leaves a residual that is comparable to a 0.01 change in δ.

Discriminating observation

The apparent δ should jump at each gas switch in a way that is proportional to the density difference and not to the oxygen activity step.

Test

Gas-switch experiments at fixed oxygen activity.

Prior art

Buoyancy corrections in TGA.

Refuted if

δ is continuous across gas switches at fixed pO₂.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Confined-water permittivity is extracted from the capacitance of a nano-gap, dividing by the gap.

Mechanism

The gap contains the liquid plus two interfacial layers whose permittivity differs; the series combination means the extracted value is dominated by the *lowest* permittivity layer, not by the bulk. A two-layer fit requires the layer thickness, which is exactly the unknown.

Discriminating observation

The extracted permittivity should depend on gap thickness in a way that follows a series model; the apparent "interfacial layer" thickness should be independent of the liquid.

Test

Gap-thickness series with several liquids.

Prior art

Nano-gap capacitance measurements.

Refuted if

Extracted permittivity is gap-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

geochem

class

extrapolation

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

T₂ distributions are converted to pore-size distributions using a laboratory-calibrated surface relaxivity ρ₂.

Mechanism

ρ₂ varies by an order of magnitude with mineralogy and with the presence of paramagnetic impurities; using a single value redistributes pore sizes without changing the total porosity, so the inversion looks self-consistent while being systematically wrong.

Discriminating observation

The T₂-derived pore size should correlate with the sample's paramagnetic content at fixed measured pore size (from imaging).

Test

Samples with paired NMR and imaging.

Prior art

NMR pore-size conversion.

Refuted if

Converted pore sizes are unbiased across mineralogies with one ρ₂.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R14 →

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

A constant-phase element exponent below 1 is interpreted as interfacial heterogeneity or as a fractal roughness.

Mechanism

In a porous electrode with a distributed RC transmission line, the impedance is a power law over the frequency range where the penetration depth lies inside the pore; that range is wide and mimics a CPE with exponent 0.5–0.9. The exponent is then a pore-geometry parameter, not a roughness parameter.

Discriminating observation

The CPE exponent should change with electrode thickness at fixed material, following the transmission-line prediction.

Test

Thickness series of the same electrode material.

Prior art

Porous-electrode transmission-line models.

Refuted if

CPE exponent is thickness-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Isosteric heats come from applying the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to isotherms fitted with Langmuir or dual-site models.

Mechanism

q_st at a given loading depends on the loading axis, which depends on the fitted saturation capacity; for microporous materials where saturation is ill-defined, different models give q_st differing by 10–20% from the same data.

Discriminating observation

q_st should differ between models by more than the reported uncertainty, and the model dependence should vanish for data sets that reach a clear plateau.

Test

Refit published isotherm families with several models.

Prior art

Isosteric heat methodology.

Refuted if

q_st is model-independent to 3%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Solvatochromic and electrochemical basicity scales are reported for dried ionic liquids.

Mechanism

Ionic liquids absorb water to millimolar-to-molar levels within minutes of air exposure; water is a strong hydrogen-bond donor and shifts both the probe's response and the electrochemical window. Drying protocols differ between labs, so the scales are not comparable.

Discriminating observation

The basicity parameter should correlate with the Karl Fischer water content across published samples, with a slope that is independent of the ionic liquid family.

Test

Reanalysis of literature values with water content metadata.

Prior art

Solvatochromic parameters of ionic liquids.

Refuted if

Basicity is uncorrelated with water content.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Approach curves are fitted with feedback theory that assumes the substrate is a conductor with a kinetically limited rate, and the fitted rate constant is reported as a map of activity.

Mechanism

Over an insulating region the current is instead limited by the hindered diffusion through the tip–substrate gap; that curve is well fitted by the conducting-substrate expression with a small but nonzero rate constant. The map therefore reports "low activity" where the surface is simply inert, and the fitted value depends on the tip's radius-to-distance ratio.

Discriminating observation

The apparent rate constant over a known insulator should change systematically with the tip's approach speed and with the tip radius, and should be indistinguishable from zero only when the diffusion-only model is used.

Test

Approach curves on a patterned conductor/insulator with several tip sizes.

Prior art

SECM feedback theory and its limits.

Refuted if

Apparent rate constants over an insulator are tip-radius independent and distinguishable from zero.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

supramolecular

class

model-artifact

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Binding isotherms are fitted with a 1:1 model and the residuals are interpreted as anti-cooperativity.

Mechanism

A sequential 1:2 binding with negative cooperativity produces a curve that a 1:1 model fits with a Hill coefficient near 0.6; the same curve is produced by a 1:1 model with a small concentration error. The two are distinguishable only with a dilution series.

Discriminating observation

Global fitting of several host concentrations should favour 1:2, while single-curve fitting cannot distinguish them; residual structure should be concentration-dependent.

Test

Global analysis of a concentration series.

Prior art

Binding-model selection.

Refuted if

Single-curve and global fits agree on the model.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

The analysis uses a time window bounded by the convection onset predicted from the Rayleigh number with a fixed critical value.

Mechanism

The critical Rayleigh number depends on the aspect ratio and on the temperature dependence of viscosity; for low-viscosity liquids the onset can occur within the standard window, adding a convective contribution that raises the apparent conductivity by several percent.

Discriminating observation

The apparent conductivity should depend on the wire's orientation relative to gravity (horizontal wires convect earlier) and on the applied power.

Test

Orientation and power series in one liquid.

Prior art

Hot-wire convection corrections.

Refuted if

Apparent conductivity is orientation-independent at all powers.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Film Seebeck is measured between two probes on the film surface with an assumed ΔT.

Mechanism

The probe–film contact has its own thermopower, and the measured voltage is the difference of the two contacts' temperatures weighted by their Seebeck coefficients. For high-Seebeck films the contact contribution is a small fraction, but for low-Seebeck metals it can dominate.

Discriminating observation

Measured Seebeck should change when probe material is changed, with a magnitude equal to the difference of contact thermopowers.

Test

Multi-probe-material comparison on the same film.

Prior art

Contact thermopower in Seebeck metrology.

Refuted if

Seebeck is probe-material independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

catalysis

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

TOF = rate / (total metal loading), assuming all atoms are accessible.

Mechanism

Single-atom catalysts contain a distribution of sites: isolated atoms, dimers, and clusters. Poisoning experiments show that a minority of sites carries most of the rate, so the per-total-atom TOF is a lower bound whose ratio to the per-active-site TOF is unknown and catalyst-specific.

Discriminating observation

Site-counting by CO titration or by in-situ spectroscopy should give an active-site fraction that correlates with the TOF discrepancy across catalysts.

Test

Paired site counting and kinetics.

Prior art

Site counting in SACs.

Refuted if

Active-site fraction is unity for all catalysts in the series.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

physical-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Surface-force-apparatus drainage measurements give an effective viscosity that is compared with bulk.

Mechanism

Roughness of a few ångströms changes the effective gap and the slip length; the extracted viscosity scales with the cube of the gap for a drainage measurement, so a 0.5 nm error in gap gives a 10% viscosity error at 3 nm separation.

Discriminating observation

The extracted viscosity should depend on the gap in a way that is fixed by the measured roughness topography, and should converge for smooth surfaces.

Test

Same fluid, surfaces of varying roughness.

Prior art

SFA drainage measurements.

Refuted if

Extracted viscosity is roughness-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

blind-spot

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Framework stability is judged by the retention of Bragg peaks after treatment.

Mechanism

A framework that loses 90% of its crystallinity can still show the strongest Bragg peaks above the detection limit; the reported "stable" material may be largely amorphous. The stability ranking therefore saturates at the diffraction detection limit.

Discriminating observation

Pairing diffraction with surface-area or with total-scattering PDF analysis should reveal loss of long-range order in samples reported as stable.

Test

Reanalysis of a stability series with PDF or BET.

Prior art

MOF stability benchmarking.

Refuted if

Samples with retained Bragg peaks retain >80% of their surface area.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

materials-chem

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Breakdown field is voltage/thickness for a parallel-plate capacitor.

Mechanism

Electrode edges concentrate the field; for films thinner than the electrode-edge radius the enhancement factor is set by the edge geometry, so breakdown occurs at a nominal field below the intrinsic value and the measured field scales with electrode size.

Discriminating observation

Breakdown field should increase with electrode radius (fewer defects and lower edge enhancement) and should saturate for large electrodes; the Weibull slope should change accordingly.

Test

Electrode-size series.

Prior art

Area-scaling in dielectric breakdown.

Refuted if

Breakdown field is electrode-size independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

chem-eng

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Rates are normalised by catalyst mass and by incident photon flux, assuming uniform illumination.

Mechanism

In a packed bed the light penetrates a few hundred micrometres; the illuminated fraction depends on particle size and on bed orientation. Two reactors with the same incident flux can differ by an order of magnitude in volumetric rate, so cross-lab comparisons of catalyst activity are confounded with reactor geometry.

Discriminating observation

Volumetric rate should scale with the illuminated external area rather than with mass, collapsing across reactors when normalised by that area.

Test

Particle-size and bed-orientation series.

Prior art

Photoreactor characterisation.

Refuted if

Mass-normalised rates collapse across geometries.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

electrochem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Activity trends across metals are compared at fixed electrolyte.

Mechanism

Specific cation adsorption drives reconstruction and changes the number of active edge sites; the same crystal face can differ by a factor of two between Li⁺ and Cs⁺ electrolytes. Trends measured in one electrolyte therefore do not transfer.

Discriminating observation

The activity ordering of two metals should invert between electrolytes, correlated with the measured cation coverage.

Test

Cation series on single-crystal electrodes.

Prior art

Cation effects in HER.

Refuted if

Metal ordering is electrolyte-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

analytical-chem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Calibration curves are built in dilute nitric acid and applied to digested samples.

Mechanism

Residual carbon from digestion enhances ionization of elements with high ionization potential (As, Se, Hg) in the plasma; the enhancement depends on the digestion method, so a calibration in pure acid underestimates these elements by 10–30% in carbon-rich digests.

Discriminating observation

The recovery of a spike should correlate with the sample's residual carbon, and should match when the calibration is matrix-matched.

Test

Spike-recovery series across digestion methods.

Prior art

Carbon enhancement in ICP-MS.

Refuted if

Recovery is independent of residual carbon.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

photochem

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Photobleaching rates are measured in air-equilibrated solution and reported as intrinsic.

Mechanism

Oxygen both quenches the triplet and generates singlet oxygen that destroys the dye; the net effect is non-monotonic in oxygen concentration. Comparisons across labs with different degassing therefore reflect dissolved oxygen rather than molecular stability.

Discriminating observation

Bleaching rate should be non-monotonic in controlled oxygen partial pressure, with a minimum at an intermediate concentration.

Test

Oxygen-titration photolysis.

Prior art

Photobleaching mechanisms.

Refuted if

Bleaching rate is monotonic in oxygen across the full range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

02-chemistry.md

domain

computational-chem

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

DFT free energies include vibrational entropy of the adsorbate on a fixed site.

Mechanism

At operating temperature, adsorbates hop among symmetry-equivalent sites and mix orientations; the configurational entropy is up to 0.2 eV at 500 K and differs between adsorbed species, shifting the predicted volcano position by more than the experimental spread.

Discriminating observation

Including configurational entropy should change the predicted optimum across a class of surfaces, and the change should correlate with the adsorbate's binding-site multiplicity.

Test

Reanalysis of published DFT volcano data with configurational terms.

Prior art

Ab initio thermodynamics of adsorbates.

Refuted if

Volcano ordering is unchanged by configurational entropy for high-multiplicity adsorbates.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R03 →

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

4

Baseline

Optothermal Raman (or thermoreflectance) fits a 2D heat-spreading model with a substrate conductance G and returns κ.

Mechanism

For a Gaussian source on a sheet with substrate loss, ΔT = (P/4πκd)·e^λE₁(λ) with λ = Gs²/(2κd). The standard fit returns κ_app = κ·[e^λE₁(λ)]⁻¹; for λ > 10 this asymptotes to κ_app ≈ Gs²/(2d), independent of the material's κ.

Discriminating observation

Across published measurements of one material, κ_app should collapse onto a single κ when plotted against λ computed from each paper's spot radius and reported G; and κ_app should scale as s² for large spots.

Test

Reanalysis of a published κ compilation with spot radius and G metadata; full derivation and numerics in investigation I2.

Prior art

Steady-state Raman thermometry modelling; I2 of this collection.

Refuted if

κ_app is uncorrelated with spot radius across a compilation with s spanning 0.2–3 µm.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Four-bar measurements are assumed to remove contact effects exactly.

Mechanism

Finite pad conductivity lets current spread into the pads, adding a voltage component that grows without bound as film and pad conductivities approach each other; the error is not a contact resistance and cannot be calibrated away by a series-resistance measurement.

Discriminating observation

Extracted conductivity should depend on pad metal at fixed film, with a discrepancy scaling as the conductivity ratio.

Test

Reanalysis and a targeted pad-metallurgy series.

Prior art

arXiv:2602.02418.

Refuted if

Extracted conductivity is pad-material invariant across a 100× range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R11 →

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

TDTR fits a two-layer model (transducer/film/substrate) with one interface conductance per boundary.

Mechanism

The transducer–film boundary and the film–substrate boundary have comparable conductances, and the sensitivity to each depends on the modulation frequency. A single-frequency fit therefore returns a weighted combination, and the reported G is not the interface the authors name.

Discriminating observation

The fitted G should vary with modulation frequency in a way predicted by the two-boundary sensitivity matrix, and should converge only when one boundary dominates the sensitivity.

Test

Frequency-series TDTR on a sample with independently characterised transducer adhesion.

Prior art

TDTR sensitivity analysis.

Refuted if

Fitted G is modulation-frequency independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Grain and grain-boundary resistances are separated by fitting an equivalent circuit with a constant phase element for the boundary.

Mechanism

The CPE exponent and the geometric factor (grain boundary thickness / grain size) are degenerate: a lower exponent can be compensated by a thinner boundary layer. The reported grain-boundary resistivity therefore depends on the assumed microstructure, which is measured on a different specimen.

Discriminating observation

The fitted CPE exponent should correlate with the measured grain-boundary thickness fraction across samples; when it does not, the resistivity separation is not unique.

Test

Paired impedance and electron-microscopy grain-size statistics.

Prior art

Brickwork model for polycrystal impedance.

Refuted if

The exponent is uncorrelated with microstructure yet resistivity is reproducible.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Channel-crack spacing gives toughness through a steady-state energy-release-rate relation that uses the measured residual stress.

Mechanism

The residual stress measured by wafer curvature is an average over the film and substrate; the near-surface stress that drives cracking differs, and the difference scales with deposition process. Toughness values therefore track process history.

Discriminating observation

Toughness should correlate with the curvature-derived stress only weakly, and should collapse better against a depth-resolved stress measure (e.g. from Raman or XRD at several depths).

Test

Reanalysis with depth-resolved stress on a process series.

Prior art

Channel cracking metrology.

Refuted if

Toughness is process-independent at fixed composition and thickness.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

calibration

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

The area function is calibrated on fused silica and applied to stiffer or softer materials.

Mechanism

The tip's apex is blunt at the nanometre scale, and the effective contact radius depends on the elastic mismatch between tip and sample; the calibrated area function therefore carries a modulus-dependent error that grows at shallow depths and produces the widely reported indentation size effect.

Discriminating observation

The apparent size effect should change when the same tip is calibrated on a material of matched modulus, and should scale with the modulus ratio.

Test

Cross-calibration on several reference materials.

Prior art

Oliver–Pharr analysis and area-function calibration.

Refuted if

Hardness–depth curves are unchanged by calibration material.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Absorption onset is converted to bandgap and plotted against nanocrystal size to extract confinement.

Mechanism

Ligand exchange changes surface strain and the dielectric environment, shifting the onset by tens of meV; size series are usually made with a single ligand, so the shift is absorbed into the confinement model and distorts the extracted effective mass.

Discriminating observation

For a fixed size, the onset should shift with ligand length and with the matrix dielectric constant, and the shift should follow the known deformation potential.

Test

Fixed-size series with ligand and matrix variation.

Prior art

Dielectric screening and strain effects in nanocrystals.

Refuted if

Onset is ligand- and matrix-independent at fixed size.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

blind-spot

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Hysteretic amplitude and phase loops in PFM are taken as evidence of switchable ferroelectric domains.

Mechanism

Electrostatic tip–sample forces, ionic drift, and Joule heating all produce hysteretic loops with the same phase signature; the cantilever's second resonance and the tip's contact stiffness set which dominates. Without a vacuum/atmosphere comparison, the loops do not discriminate.

Discriminating observation

Loops should change qualitatively between vacuum and controlled humidity, and should persist in a non-ferroelectric ionic conductor.

Test

Vacuum/humidity series on a known non-ferroelectric ionic conductor.

Prior art

PFM artefact literature.

Refuted if

Loops are unchanged in a non-ferroelectric ionic conductor under all atmospheres.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Jc is reported as Ic divided by the superconductor cross-section.

Mechanism

Current injected from the stabiliser must transfer into the superconducting layer over a length set by the interface resistance; for short samples the transfer length is comparable to the sample length, so the local current density is non-uniform and Jc depends on sample length.

Discriminating observation

Jc should increase with sample length and saturate beyond the transfer length, with the saturation length scaling as the inverse square root of interface conductance.

Test

Length series on tapes with measured interface resistance.

Prior art

Current-transfer-length analysis.

Refuted if

Jc is length-independent for samples shorter than 1 cm.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Film expansion is from substrate curvature using Stoney-type relations.

Mechanism

The film's contribution is a small difference between the measured curvature and the substrate's own thermal bending; for films thinner than 100 nm the difference is comparable to the uncertainty in the substrate's biaxial modulus, so the reported CTE can have the wrong sign.

Discriminating observation

CTE should change when the substrate is swapped for a different orientation of the same material, at fixed film.

Test

Multi-substrate comparison.

Prior art

Curvature-based stress metrology.

Refuted if

Film CTE is substrate-independent within errors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

circularity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Mobility is from the transfer curve's transconductance with a contact resistance extracted by the transmission-line method on a separate device.

Mechanism

The transmission-line extraction assumes the channel resistance scales linearly with length, which fails when the contact is not the limiting element or when the semiconductor is non-uniform; the extracted contact resistance then absorbs channel nonlinearity and the mobility becomes length-dependent.

Discriminating observation

Mobility should vary with channel length for a well-behaved material; a length-independent mobility after correction is the test of a valid extraction.

Test

Length series on one wafer.

Prior art

Contact-resistance extraction in 2D FETs.

Refuted if

Mobility is length-independent before any correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Efficiency is measured at high beam current for signal-to-noise, then quoted for low-density operation.

Mechanism

Auger and exciton–exciton annihilation make efficiency non-monotonic in excitation density; the measured value at high density is on the drooping branch, so the quoted efficiency underestimates the low-density value for some phosphors and overestimates it for others.

Discriminating observation

Efficiency should be non-monotonic in beam current with a maximum at a density that depends on the host's Auger coefficient, and the maximum should shift with temperature.

Test

Current-density series on a standard phosphor.

Prior art

Efficiency droop in luminescent materials.

Refuted if

Efficiency is density-independent across three decades of excitation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Stability is reported as T80 under standard test conditions and extrapolated to field.

Mechanism

The degradation rate depends on the steady-state carrier density, which differs between spectra with the same irradiance because the absorption profile and the operating point differ; accelerated tests with a different spectrum therefore rank materials differently.

Discriminating observation

T80 measured under two spectra with matched irradiance but different carrier generation profiles should differ, and the difference should scale with the measured carrier lifetime.

Test

Dual-spectrum stability testing.

Prior art

ISOS stability protocols.

Refuted if

T80 is spectrum-independent at matched irradiance.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Ductility is reported as a composition property.

Mechanism

Free volume controls shear-band nucleation; quenching rate changes free volume by a fraction that changes the fracture strain by tens of percent. Samples of the same composition from different thicknesses therefore differ systematically.

Discriminating observation

Fracture strain should decrease with sample thickness at fixed composition, tracking the measured enthalpy of relaxation.

Test

Thickness series with DSC relaxation-enthalpy measurements.

Prior art

Free-volume effects in metallic glasses.

Refuted if

Fracture strain is thickness-independent for a fixed composition.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

ΔS_M is from isothermal magnetisation or from heat-capacity measurements at quasi-static sweep rates.

Mechanism

Eddy currents and thermal lag in a bulk sample shift the measured transition and broaden it; the peak ΔS_M decreases with increasing sweep rate, so values measured at different rates are not comparable and the reported peak is rate-dependent.

Discriminating observation

Peak ΔS_M should decrease with sweep rate as a Lorentzian in rate with a width set by the sample's thermal diffusivity.

Test

Sweep-rate series on samples of different thickness.

Prior art

Magnetocaloric measurement protocols.

Refuted if

Peak ΔS_M is sweep-rate independent for bulk samples.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

zT = S²σT/κ, with κ from laser flash on a separate coupon.

Mechanism

Anisotropy and texture mean the coupon's κ is not the leg's κ; the error is a sample-to-sample property, not a measurement error, and it biases zT by 10–30% in textured materials while being invisible in the reported uncertainty.

Discriminating observation

zT computed from same-specimen κ (e.g. from the Harman method) should differ systematically from the separate-coupon value in textured samples.

Test

Paired Harman and separate-coupon measurements.

Prior art

Thermoelectric metrology.

Refuted if

The two routes agree within 5% for textured samples.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Barrier performance is ranked by corrosion potential or by low-frequency impedance modulus.

Mechanism

A coating with 0.01% pinhole area can dominate the measured potential because the exposed metal is a nearly reversible electrode; the coating's bulk permeability is then invisible to the measurement until the pinholes are sealed.

Discriminating observation

The measured potential should be independent of coating thickness above a threshold, and should change abruptly when pinholes are deliberately introduced.

Test

Thickness series plus controlled-defect series.

Prior art

Coating barrier metrology.

Refuted if

Potential scales with coating thickness as a barrier model predicts.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Tc is taken from magnetisation vs temperature and compared with bulk.

Mechanism

Dipolar coupling in a patterned film modifies the effective exchange; the shift scales with the pattern's demagnetising factor and with film thickness, so continuous films, dots, and stripes of the same material give different Tc.

Discriminating observation

Tc should vary with pattern geometry at fixed thickness, in proportion to the calculated demagnetising factor.

Test

Same film patterned into dots and stripes.

Prior art

Dipolar effects in thin-film magnetism.

Refuted if

Tc is pattern-independent within 1 K.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Bulk conductivity is from the high-frequency intercept after an initial impedance measurement.

Mechanism

The electrode–electrolyte interface evolves (interphase growth, wetting), so the intercept moves during the first hours; a measurement taken early reports a higher conductivity, and the drift is often mistaken for the electrolyte degrading.

Discriminating observation

The high-frequency intercept should drift monotonically over 24 h at fixed temperature, and should stabilise with an ion-blocking electrode.

Test

Time-series impedance with blocking and non-blocking electrodes.

Prior art

Interfacial resistance in solid electrolytes.

Refuted if

The intercept is stable from the first measurement.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Work function is from Kelvin-probe or photoemission and compared across materials.

Mechanism

Transfer residues and ambient adsorbates shift the surface dipole by 0.1–0.5 eV; the shift is larger for materials with higher surface energy and is not removed by standard annealing without changing the material.

Discriminating observation

Work function should vary with transfer method and with annealing temperature in a way that tracks the measured carbon/oxygen surface coverage.

Test

Multi-technique surface characterisation on identical flakes.

Prior art

Work-function metrology for 2D materials.

Refuted if

Work function is transfer-method independent at fixed coverage.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

d₃₃ is from laser interferometry of a clamped film with a correction for substrate clamping.

Mechanism

The clamping correction assumes the film is free to expand in-plane at the measurement frequency; above the film/substrate mechanical resonance the film decouples, and below it the correction is frequency-dependent. Measurements at different frequencies therefore give different d₃₃.

Discriminating observation

d₃₃ should vary with drive frequency in a way fixed by the substrate's compliance, converging at low frequency.

Test

Frequency-series interferometry.

Prior art

Clamping corrections in piezofilm metrology.

Refuted if

d₃₃ is frequency-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Crystallisation temperature and data retention are reported for blanket films with a standard cap.

Mechanism

The cap imposes stress and acts as a diffusion barrier for the chalcogen; both shift the nucleation rate. Retention extrapolations from a capped film therefore do not describe a device where the cap differs.

Discriminating observation

Crystallisation temperature should shift with cap stress (varied by cap thickness) at fixed phase-change layer.

Test

Cap-thickness series.

Prior art

Phase-change retention extrapolation.

Refuted if

Crystallisation temperature is cap-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-disagreement

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Spin Hall angle is extracted from a harmonic Hall measurement assuming a single mechanism.

Mechanism

The inverse spin galvanic and spin Hall contributions have the same symmetry in the standard geometry but different thickness scaling; a single-thickness measurement cannot separate them, and the extracted angle depends on the assumed ratio.

Discriminating observation

The angle extracted at two thicknesses of the same heavy metal should be consistent only when both terms are fitted.

Test

Thickness series of the heavy metal.

Prior art

Harmonic Hall analysis.

Refuted if

The angle is thickness-independent without a second term.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

The sensor is clamped to the sample and the contact resistance is assumed negligible.

Mechanism

For porous and rough materials the contact resistance can exceed the sample's own resistance; because clamping pressure is rarely reported, interlaboratory scatter is dominated by it.

Discriminating observation

Measured conductivity should increase with clamping pressure and saturate, with the saturation pressure depending on roughness.

Test

Pressure-controlled measurements on the same specimen.

Prior art

TPS metrology.

Refuted if

Conductivity is pressure-independent above 1 kPa.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

A Tauc or derivative fit gives one gap energy.

Mechanism

Halide segregation creates domains with gaps differing by 100 meV; the absorption edge is a convolution and the fitted gap is a weighted average that depends on the fit window and on the domain size distribution.

Discriminating observation

The fitted gap should change with the fit window and should correlate with the width of the photoluminescence spectrum.

Test

Reanalysis of absorption and PL pairs across segregation states.

Prior art

Bandgap extraction from Tauc plots.

Refuted if

Fitted gap is window-independent and matches the PL peak.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Hardness is reported as a single value for a nominal composition.

Mechanism

Most "single-phase" high-entropy alloys contain minority intermetallic or sigma phases that pin dislocations; hardness is then dominated by the minority phase, and composition–property trends reflect phase fraction rather than solid solution strengthening.

Discriminating observation

Hardness should correlate with the minority-phase area fraction across a composition series, and should collapse when normalised by it.

Test

Paired hardness and phase-fraction measurements.

Prior art

Solid-solution strengthening in HEAs.

Refuted if

Hardness is uncorrelated with minority-phase fraction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Cavity or split-post dielectric resonator measurements attribute all loss to the sample.

Mechanism

The housing's surface resistance contributes a loss that is independent of the sample and that is comparable to the sample's loss for tan δ below 1e-5; the reported loss tangent is then a difference of two comparable numbers and depends on the housing's surface finish.

Discriminating observation

Loss tangent should change when the housing is replaced with a different surface finish at fixed sample.

Test

Housing-material comparison.

Prior art

Microwave dielectric metrology.

Refuted if

Loss tangent is housing-independent at the 1e-6 level.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Linewidth from ferromagnetic resonance gives the Gilbert damping.

Mechanism

Thickness variation shifts the local resonance frequency; the ensemble linewidth is the convolution of the intrinsic linewidth with the thickness distribution. Reported damping therefore tracks deposition uniformity.

Discriminating observation

Linewidth should correlate with the measured thickness spread across samples, and should narrow on a single-crystal film with known uniformity.

Test

Paired FMR and thickness mapping.

Prior art

Inhomogeneous broadening in FMR.

Refuted if

Linewidth is uncorrelated with thickness spread.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Toughness is reported from a single test method at a single crack length.

Mechanism

Bridging and transformation toughening produce a rising R-curve; indentation and single-edge-notched-beam tests sample different crack-length regimes, so the two methods disagree by design, not by error.

Discriminating observation

The two methods should converge when the R-curve is measured over the same crack-length range.

Test

R-curve measurement with both methods.

Prior art

R-curve metrology.

Refuted if

Methods disagree even at matched crack length.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Interdiffusion profiles in bilayers give grain-boundary diffusivity.

Mechanism

Free surfaces and interfaces provide faster paths; for films thinner than the grain size, the measured profile is dominated by surface diffusion, and the extracted activation energy is a mixture of surface and boundary values.

Discriminating observation

The extracted activation energy should change with film thickness, approaching the surface value for the thinnest films.

Test

Thickness series of diffusion couples.

Prior art

Harrison-type diffusion kinetics.

Refuted if

Activation energy is thickness-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Wettability is reported as an intrinsic contact angle.

Mechanism

Sub-micrometre roughness traps air; the apparent angle then follows Cassie–Baxter and depends on the trap fraction, which changes with immersion time as air dissolves. The angle drifts for minutes, and the value quoted is a snapshot.

Discriminating observation

Contact angle should drift with time under the droplet and should change when the measurement is made in a degassed liquid.

Test

Time-resolved and degassed contact-angle series.

Prior art

Wetting on rough surfaces.

Refuted if

Contact angle is stable over 30 min in degassed liquid.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

κ is plotted against filler volume fraction and fitted with a mixing rule.

Mechanism

Percolation depends on dispersion and on filler aspect ratio; two composites at the same loading can differ by an order of magnitude. Mixing-rule parameters therefore are not transferable and the fitted percolation threshold is a processing fingerprint.

Discriminating observation

κ should correlate with measured agglomerate size rather than with loading, collapsing once dispersion is quantified.

Test

Dispersion-quantified series.

Prior art

Percolation in thermal composites.

Refuted if

κ is a function of loading alone at fixed dispersion metric.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R26 →

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Breakdown strength is reported as a Weibull scale parameter and compared across materials.

Mechanism

Breakdown is defect-initiated; the Weibull area scaling makes the reported strength a function of the test area, so films tested on small electrodes appear stronger. Comparisons across labs that differ in area are therefore not comparisons of materials.

Discriminating observation

The scale parameter should follow the area-scaling law, and normalising to a fixed area should remove interlaboratory scatter.

Test

Reanalysis of published breakdown data with area metadata.

Prior art

Weibull area scaling in dielectrics.

Refuted if

Scale parameter is area-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

The window is from cyclic voltammetry between two blocking electrodes and quoted as a thermodynamic property.

Mechanism

Decomposition currents grow with time at a fixed potential; a slow scan therefore shows a narrower window than a fast scan, and the quoted window is a scan-rate-dependent quantity that reflects the tolerable leakage current, not the band gap.

Discriminating observation

The window edge should shift with scan rate in a direction and magnitude predicted by the leakage-current threshold used to define it.

Test

Scan-rate series with reported current thresholds.

Prior art

Electrochemical stability windows in solid electrolytes.

Refuted if

The window is scan-rate independent across a decade.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Composite thermopower is modelled by effective-medium theory with the constituents' σ and S.

Mechanism

When one phase is metallic and the other semiconducting, the composite's S can exceed both constituents' values through energy filtering at the interfaces; effective-medium theory without an interface term cannot reproduce this, so reported enhancement is either real interface physics or a measurement artefact.

Discriminating observation

The enhancement should scale with interface density (filler size at fixed loading) and should vanish for a composite with the same loading but coarser filler.

Test

Filler-size series at fixed loading.

Prior art

Energy filtering in composites.

Refuted if

Enhancement is filler-size independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Activation energy is from temperature-dependent impedance or from transient current.

Mechanism

The migrating ion's charge state and the associated vacancy concentration depend on the electrode's Fermi level; changing the contact changes the measured activation energy without changing the bulk migration barrier.

Discriminating observation

The activation energy should differ between Ohmic and blocking contacts on the same film.

Test

Same-film, two-contact comparison.

Prior art

Ion migration in halide perovskites.

Refuted if

Activation energy is contact-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Damage is reported as a function of dose and compared across facilities.

Mechanism

Defect recombination competes with damage accumulation; at low dose rate, annealing removes defects during irradiation, so the same dose produces different damage. The dose-rate dependence is a material property that is rarely measured.

Discriminating observation

Damage (from resistivity or lattice parameter) should be sublinear in dose rate at fixed dose, with a crossover that tracks the annealing activation energy.

Test

Dose-rate series at fixed dose and temperature.

Prior art

Dynamic annealing in irradiation damage.

Refuted if

Damage is dose-rate independent at fixed dose.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R12 →

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

G is attributed to the interface and compared across interface preparations.

Mechanism

Heat must first equilibrate between electrons and phonons in the metal over a length of tens of nanometres; for films thinner than that length, the measured conductance includes the electron–phonon resistance in series, and the reported G depends on metal thickness.

Discriminating observation

G should increase with metal thickness and saturate at the electron–phonon length.

Test

Metal-thickness series with TDTR.

Prior art

Electron–phonon coupling in thermal metrology.

Refuted if

G is metal-thickness independent for films below 20 nm.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Photostriction is the strain under illumination minus the strain in the dark at the same temperature.

Mechanism

Illumination heats the sample; if the thermometer is not on the sample or if the strain measurement has a thermal lag, the subtraction leaves a residual proportional to the heating rate. The reported photostriction then tracks absorbance.

Discriminating observation

The apparent photostriction should scale with absorbed power rather than with photon energy above the gap, and should vanish when the sample is thermally clamped.

Test

Wavelength- and power-dependent strain with on-sample thermometry.

Prior art

Photostriction metrology.

Refuted if

Photostriction is independent of absorbed power at fixed photon energy.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Healing efficiency is the recovered toughness after a stated healing period.

Mechanism

Healing is diffusion-limited and continues for hours to days; a test at 24 h samples the early part of the curve, and materials with slow diffusion but high ultimate healing are ranked below fast partial healers.

Discriminating observation

Efficiency should follow a t^0.5 diffusion law, and rankings should invert between 1 h and 72 h tests.

Test

Time-series healing on a set of polymers.

Prior art

Self-healing characterisation.

Refuted if

Rankings are unchanged between 1 h and 72 h.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

λ is from microwave surface impedance with a thin-film correction based on the assumed λ.

Mechanism

The correction is implicit (it depends on λ), so the extraction is a fixed-point problem; linearising it biases λ low by a factor that grows as thickness/λ approaches 1.

Discriminating observation

λ extracted from films of two thicknesses should disagree when the linearised correction is used and agree when the fixed point is solved.

Test

Thickness series with the same film quality.

Prior art

Thin-film λ metrology.

Refuted if

λ is thickness-independent under the linearised correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

circularity

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Activity is measured on a characterised single-crystal surface and attributed to that surface.

Mechanism

Adsorbates and reaction intermediates drive reconstruction at operating conditions; the active phase differs from the characterised one, and post-reaction characterisation (after evacuation) shows the original surface because the reconstruction is reversible.

Discriminating observation

In-situ structural probes under reaction conditions should show a different surface than ex-situ; changing the reactant partial pressure should change activity and structure together.

Test

In-situ XRD/STM under reaction conditions.

Prior art

Pressure-gap and surface reconstruction literature.

Refuted if

In-situ and ex-situ structures are identical.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Conductivity enhancement is measured by impedance and attributed to interfacial space charge.

Mechanism

The second phase can be electronically conducting at the measurement temperature, adding a parallel electronic path that is invisible in the impedance spectrum if it is frequency-independent; the block-by-electrode test that would reveal it is rarely performed.

Discriminating observation

The enhancement should vanish when measured with ion-blocking electrodes or with a DC polarisation cell that separates electronic from ionic current.

Test

Electronic leakage measurement via Hebb–Wagner polarisation.

Prior art

Space-charge vs percolation explanations.

Refuted if

Hebb–Wagner shows negligible electronic conductivity in enhanced samples.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Anisotropy constants are reported for the magnetic layer.

Mechanism

The seed layer sets the grain orientation and the interface roughness; anisotropy and its field dependence are therefore process properties. Comparing materials grown on different seeds conflates intrinsic anisotropy with texture.

Discriminating observation

Anisotropy should change with seed-layer texture at fixed magnetic layer, in proportion to the measured orientation fraction.

Test

Seed-layer series with XRD texture measurement.

Prior art

Interface anisotropy in thin films.

Refuted if

Anisotropy is seed-independent at fixed composition.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R13 →

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Amorphous films are assumed to have a thickness-independent κ above a few nanometres.

Mechanism

The top and bottom surfaces scatter the low-frequency vibrational modes that carry most of the heat; for films thinner than the dominant mean free path (~10–100 nm in amorphous materials), κ is reduced and the reduction follows a suppression function that is predicted but rarely fitted.

Discriminating observation

κ should decrease with thickness below a threshold, and the suppression should be larger for films with rougher surfaces at the same thickness.

Test

Thickness and roughness series.

Prior art

Thermal conductivity suppression in amorphous films.

Refuted if

κ is thickness-independent above 5 nm.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

On/off power laws are interpreted as trap-mediated charging.

Mechanism

With integration time comparable to the on/off transition rate, the measured on-time distribution is convolved with the bin width; the apparent power-law exponent then depends on the binning, and comparisons across labs differ.

Discriminating observation

The exponent should change with bin width in a predictable way for a given underlying exponential, and should be bin-independent only for a true power law.

Test

Reanalysis of raw photon timestamps at several bin widths.

Prior art

Blinking statistics methodology.

Refuted if

The exponent is bin-width independent over two decades.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

assumption

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

The sin²ψ method uses a stress-free d-spacing from a powder or from a bulk reference.

Mechanism

Composition and defect changes in the coating shift the reference spacing by more than the elastic strain being measured; the error enters as a constant offset in the d vs sin²ψ line, which is exactly degenerate with a hydrostatic stress.

Discriminating observation

The offset should change with deposition composition at fixed measured strain, and should be removable when the reference is measured from the same coating after stress relaxation.

Test

Paired powder and relaxed-coating references.

Prior art

sin²ψ methodology.

Refuted if

Residual stress is reference-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

ΔT_EC is quoted for a field change without specifying the waveform.

Mechanism

Hysteresis and Joule heating make the measured ΔT depend on frequency and on the duty cycle; the adiabatic value is approached only for fast ramps, and slower ramps lose heat to the surroundings. The quoted ΔT is therefore a measurement-protocol quantity.

Discriminating observation

ΔT should increase with ramp rate and saturate at the adiabatic limit, with the saturation rate set by the sample's thermal diffusivity.

Test

Waveform-series measurement on one sample.

Prior art

Electrocaloric measurement methods.

Refuted if

ΔT is waveform-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Bulk lifetime is extracted from a decay with a surface-recombination correction using a fixed velocity.

Mechanism

The passivation degrades over hours under illumination; the surface velocity rises, and the extracted bulk lifetime falls spuriously. Reported lifetimes therefore depend on how long after passivation the measurement was made.

Discriminating observation

The extracted lifetime should decay with illumination time at a rate that tracks the measured surface recombination velocity on a companion wafer.

Test

Lifetime series with parallel surface-velocity monitors.

Prior art

Surface passivation in lifetime metrology.

Refuted if

Extracted bulk lifetime is stable over 24 h under illumination.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

03-materials.md

domain

materials

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Module efficiency and material zT are compared directly.

Mechanism

The module's internal resistance includes contacts and current-spreading; the module-derived effective zT is lower by a factor set by the contact fraction, which is not reported. The gap is then attributed to a materials problem, and optimisation targets the wrong term.

Discriminating observation

The module/material gap should correlate with independently measured contact resistance across modules.

Test

Reanalysis of module and material data pairs.

Prior art

Thermoelectric module metrology.

Refuted if

The gap is uncorrelated with contact resistance.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R04 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Specific growth rate μ is fitted to the exponential phase of log(OD₆₀₀) vs time, trusting the instrument's linear range.

Mechanism

Detector saturation and stray light compress OD at high values. A stray-light calculation (R1, section A) shows the compression is only 0.1% at OD 0.2–1.0 for a 0.1% stray fraction and reaches 8% only at OD 2.0–3.0, so a sub-exponential fit in the OD 0.3–0.6 range is **not** explained by this mechanism; the surviving candidates are detector nonlinearity, meniscus and fill volume, evaporation, and a genuine physiological shift.

Discriminating observation

μ fitted from OD should decrease with fill volume and with the reader's gain setting, while μ from viable counts or from CO₂ evolution should not.

Test

Fill-volume and gain series on one strain with parallel viable counts.

Prior art

Plate-reader linearity specifications; growth-curve methodology.

Refuted if

OD-derived μ is invariant to fill volume and gain across the linear range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

molecular-biology

class

circularity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Amplification efficiency comes from the slope of Cq vs log(dilution).

Mechanism

Serial dilution accumulates pipetting error multiplicatively; because Cq is linear in log(copy number), the error inflates the slope's variance and biases the efficiency toward 100% (regression dilution). The quoted efficiency therefore reflects the dilution protocol.

Discriminating observation

Efficiency estimated from independently prepared (not serial) dilutions should differ systematically from the serial estimate, with the difference scaling as the pipetting CV.

Test

Serial vs independent dilution series on the same assay.

Prior art

qPCR efficiency estimation.

Refuted if

Serial and independent estimates agree within 1%.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

molecular-biology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Band intensity is converted to protein abundance by linear calibration with a loading series.

Mechanism

Chemiluminescence saturates at the membrane and at the camera; the onset depends on antibody affinity and on substrate depletion, so a "linear" loading series can be linear only because both axes are compressed. Ratios between bands then distort in a direction set by which band is brighter.

Discriminating observation

The measured ratio should change when the exposure is reduced and when the primary antibody is diluted, converging only in the unsaturated regime.

Test

Exposure and antibody-titration series on the same blot.

Prior art

Western blot quantification guidelines.

Refuted if

Ratios are invariant to exposure and antibody dilution.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

transcriptomics

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Zero counts are modelled as dropout and imputed with a zero-inflated model that is independent of cell size.

Mechanism

Capture efficiency scales with the cell's RNA content and with its lysis behaviour; small cells have systematically more zeros. Imputation then fills in genes that are absent because of size, and trajectory inference orders cells by size rather than by state.

Discriminating observation

The first principal component of imputed data should correlate with an independent size proxy (forward scatter, cell diameter) more strongly than with marker-gene expression.

Test

Reanalysis of public datasets with size metadata.

Prior art

Dropout imputation methods.

Refuted if

Leading components are uncorrelated with size proxies after size correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R06 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

structural-biology

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Template or network picking is assumed to select particles without altering the reconstructed density.

Mechanism

Picking preferentially accepts images that already resemble the template; the selected subset is enriched in template-like views, which sharpens features in the map and suppresses features absent from the template. The effect is a self-fulfilling reconstruction.

Discriminating observation

Reconstructions from independently picked subsets (different templates, or picked before and after 3D classification) should differ in the density of features that were in the template versus features that were not.

Test

Reanalysis with template-swap controls.

Prior art

arXiv:2507.03951 quantifies the picking bias.

Refuted if

Template-swapped reconstructions are identical at the reported resolution.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

neuroscience

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

ΔF/F is deconvolved with a fixed indicator time constant to infer spikes.

Mechanism

The effective decay time depends on the indicator's affinity, on the resting calcium, and on the cell's buffering capacity; cells with different expression levels therefore have different effective kernels. A deconvolution with one kernel assigns apparent rate differences that are expression differences.

Discriminating observation

Inferred rate should correlate with measured indicator expression level at fixed stimulus, and should collapse when the kernel is estimated per cell.

Test

Reanalysis of datasets with per-cell brightness metadata.

Prior art

Calcium deconvolution methods.

Refuted if

Inferred rates are independent of expression level.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

ecology

class

model-artifact

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Metabolic scaling exponents are fitted across body sizes at a common measurement temperature.

Mechanism

The temperature sensitivity (Ea) itself scales with body size, so measuring all species at one temperature applies a size-dependent correction that is absorbed into the mass exponent. The reported 3/4 exponent is then partly a temperature-sampling artefact.

Discriminating observation

The fitted mass exponent should change with measurement temperature, and should approach the within-species exponent when measured at each species' preferred temperature.

Test

Reanalysis of respirometry compilations with temperature metadata.

Prior art

Metabolic theory of ecology.

Refuted if

The mass exponent is temperature-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

electrophysiology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Recordings are accepted when series resistance is <10 MΩ and 70–80% compensated.

Mechanism

The residual series resistance forms a low-pass filter whose corner scales with the cell's capacitance; compensation itself adds a differentiated component that can precede the true onset. Fast activation kinetics are therefore systematically slowed and their voltage dependence distorted.

Discriminating observation

The fitted activation time constant should depend on the uncompensated resistance across cells at fixed channel, in the direction predicted by the filter, and should converge when extrapolated to zero residual resistance.

Test

Reanalysis of recordings with reported Rs and compensation.

Prior art

Series-resistance artefacts in voltage clamp.

Refuted if

Activation time constants are independent of residual Rs.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

cytometry

class

calibration

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

The compensation matrix is computed from single-stained cells and applied to all samples.

Mechanism

Autofluorescence is a function of cell size, granularity, and fixation; a compensation computed on one autofluorescence spectrum over- or under-subtracts in another population, producing spurious double-positive cells that track the sample's autofluorescence.

Discriminating observation

The double-positive fraction should correlate with the sample's measured autofluorescence, and should vanish when compensation is computed per sample.

Test

Reanalysis with per-sample autofluorescence controls.

Prior art

Compensation methodology.

Refuted if

Double-positive fractions are autofluorescence-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

bioenergetics

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

OCR is computed from the fluorescence decay with the chamber's oxygen solubility and volume.

Mechanism

At high rates the chamber's oxygen concentration falls toward the diffusion-limited regime, and the stirring rate sets the supply. Reported maxima therefore depend on stirring and on chamber geometry, and comparisons across instruments are not comparisons of mitochondria.

Discriminating observation

OCR_max should increase with stirring rate and saturate, with the saturation depending on the sample's size.

Test

Stirring series on the same sample.

Prior art

Respirometry protocols.

Refuted if

OCR_max is stirring-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Minimum inhibitory concentrations are compared across peptides in standard media.

Mechanism

Cationic peptide binding to anionic membranes is screened by salt; media with different NaCl content change the bound fraction by an order of magnitude, so MIC comparisons across studies conflate peptide sequence with medium.

Discriminating observation

MIC should shift with medium ionic strength with a slope that is proportional to the peptide's net charge.

Test

Ionic-strength series on a peptide panel.

Prior art

Salt sensitivity of AMPs.

Refuted if

MIC is ionic-strength independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Well-to-well variation in growth is interpreted as phenotypic heterogeneity or as a subtle genetic effect.

Mechanism

Plate readers have a thermal gradient across the plate of 0.2–1 K, which produces growth-rate differences of several percent; the gradient is fixed in space, so replicate plates reproduce the same "heterogeneity" pattern.

Discriminating observation

The pattern should rotate with the plate orientation and disappear when wells are randomised or when the plate is thermally equilibrated.

Test

Rotated-plate and randomised-layout experiments.

Prior art

Plate-reader edge effects.

Refuted if

Well patterns are invariant to plate rotation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R28 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

cell-biology

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Half-life is the decay constant after translation inhibition.

Mechanism

Cycloheximide itself perturbs the cell (stress response, altered degradation) within minutes, and the chase's t=0 is defined after the perturbation; the fitted decay therefore includes a fast stress component and reports a half-life shorter than the physiological one.

Discriminating observation

Half-lives should differ between cycloheximide and auxin-inducible or temperature-sensitive degron systems for the same protein, with the difference scaling with the stress-marker induction.

Test

Side-by-side chase methods on the same protein.

Prior art

Comparison of translation-inhibition methods.

Refuted if

Half-lives agree across methods within error.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiome

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Relative abundances are compared across sample groups processed with the same kit.

Mechanism

Lysis efficiency differs by cell wall type; a phenotype that alters the community's Gram-positive fraction changes the bias in the same direction, so the kit bias and the biological effect are confounded and cannot be separated by replication.

Discriminating observation

Re-extracting the same samples with a different kit should reverse or attenuate the group difference, while a genuine effect should persist.

Test

Split-sample extraction with two kits.

Prior art

Extraction bias in microbiome studies.

Refuted if

Group differences are kit-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

biochemistry

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Initial velocity is taken from a single time point or from a short linear fit.

Mechanism

At high enzyme concentration or low K_M, substrate depletion exceeds 10% before the first read; the "initial" velocity is then a time-averaged rate that depends on the substrate concentration and underestimates V_max.

Discriminating observation

v should decrease with the time point in the direction predicted by the integrated Michaelis–Menten equation, and the apparent K_M should shift with enzyme concentration.

Test

Time-series assay at several enzyme concentrations.

Prior art

Integrated Michaelis–Menten analysis.

Refuted if

Apparent K_M is enzyme-concentration independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R17 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

biophysics

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

k_on and k_off are from a global fit to a 1:1 model, with the fit quality used as validation.

Mechanism

Mass transport limitation produces a response that is well fitted by a 1:1 model with a reduced k_on, because both effects saturate; the fit residual is small while k_on is underestimated by up to 10×.

Discriminating observation

k_on should increase with flow rate and saturate, and should approach the true value when the ligand density is reduced.

Test

Flow-rate and ligand-density series.

Prior art

Mass-transport limitation in SPR.

Refuted if

k_on is flow-rate and density independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

cell-biology

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Fluorescence ratio is converted to millivolts with a Nernstian calibration.

Mechanism

The dye distributes among plasma membrane, organelles, and cytosol; the organelle fraction changes with cell type and with dye loading, and it dominates the signal. The calibration in one cell type does not transfer.

Discriminating observation

The inferred potential should change with dye loading time and with the cell's organelle volume fraction, and should disagree with patch-clamp in cells with large organelle fractions.

Test

Paired imaging and patch clamp across cell types.

Prior art

Voltage-sensitive dye calibration.

Refuted if

Dye-inferred potential matches patch clamp across organelle fractions.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

cell-biology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

DCF fluorescence is read as a proxy for intracellular H₂O₂.

Mechanism

DCF is oxidised by multiple species and is itself photo-oxidised; the signal therefore grows with illumination time and with light dose, and the apparent response to a stimulus includes a light-dose term.

Discriminating observation

The signal should increase with illumination intensity at fixed stimulus, and should be unchanged in cells lacking the putative source.

Test

Light-dose series with genetic controls.

Prior art

DCF specificity and photo-oxidation.

Refuted if

Signal is light-dose independent at fixed stimulus.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

biochemistry

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

ATP is extracted and immediately read, with a standard lysis protocol.

Mechanism

ATPases remain active during lysis; the extraction time therefore sets the loss, and protocols that differ by a minute differ by tens of percent. Reported ATP levels track protocol timing.

Discriminating observation

Measured ATP should decay with lysis duration at a rate equal to the residual ATPase activity, and should be stable with a validated quench.

Test

Lysis-duration series with and without validated quench.

Prior art

ATP assay protocols.

Refuted if

Measured ATP is lysis-duration independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

toxicology

class

model-artifact

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Viability is from MTT/MTS conversion, with particle-only controls.

Mechanism

Some particles catalyse or quench the dye's reduction, and the effect depends on the particle's surface chemistry and on the medium's protein corona. The particle-only control lacks cells, so it does not reproduce the intracellular reduction environment.

Discriminating observation

Apparent viability should differ between MTT and a membrane-integrity assay using the same particles at the same dose.

Test

Paired dye and membrane-integrity assays.

Prior art

Nanoparticle assay interference.

Refuted if

Two orthogonal assays rank particles identically.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

cell-biology

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Gap closure rate is interpreted as migration.

Mechanism

Mitomycin treatment to suppress proliferation also alters migration; without it, the closure combines both. The apparent migration rate therefore depends on the proliferation rate, which varies with passage number and confluence.

Discriminating observation

Closure rate should correlate with the EdU incorporation rate across conditions, and should change when proliferation is suppressed by a method that does not affect motility.

Test

Closure series with paired proliferation labels and two suppression methods.

Prior art

Scratch assay methodology.

Refuted if

Closure rate is uncorrelated with proliferation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

immunoassay

class

nonlinearity

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Signal is monotonic in analyte concentration over the calibration range.

Mechanism

Above a threshold, both capture and detection antibodies saturate and the sandwich cannot form; the signal falls while the true concentration rises, and a diluted sample can read higher than an undiluted one.

Discriminating observation

Signal should be non-monotonic in concentration, and the apparent concentration should decrease with a smaller dilution factor in a way fixed by the antibody K_D.

Test

Dilution-linearity series on high-concentration samples.

Prior art

Hook effect in sandwich immunoassays.

Refuted if

Signal is monotonic across the full tested range.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

transcriptomics

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Nascent transcript density is converted to initiation rate with a fixed elongation rate.

Mechanism

The elongation rate varies along the gene and with the cell state; a labelling pulse averages over positions, so the inferred initiation rate is a convolution. Comparisons across conditions with different elongation rates are therefore confounded.

Discriminating observation

The inferred initiation rate should change when the pulse time is varied for genes with known long elongation times, and should be stable for short genes.

Test

Pulse-time series with elongation-rate measurements.

Prior art

Nascent RNA kinetics.

Refuted if

Inferred initiation rates are pulse-time independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiome

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Faecal or culture metabolism is measured in anaerobic batches and attributed to specific taxa.

Mechanism

Metabolites and redox state depend on the local oxygen tension; static cultures develop gradients, so the same community metabolises differently depending on vessel geometry and fill volume. Reported activities are therefore vessel-specific.

Discriminating observation

Metabolic rate per cell should scale with the surface-to-volume ratio of the vessel and should converge in continuous culture with controlled redox.

Test

Vessel-geometry series with redox monitoring.

Prior art

Gut-microbiome culturing.

Refuted if

Activity per cell is vessel-geometry independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

chronobiology

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Period is from the peak-to-peak interval of a luciferase rhythm.

Mechanism

Luciferase maturation and degradation add a low-pass filter; the filter delays the peak by an amount that depends on the reporter's half-life, and a slow reporter shifts the peak without changing the period — but if the filter is asymmetric it also lengthens the apparent period.

Discriminating observation

Period should differ between reporters with different half-lives in the same cells, in the direction predicted by the filter.

Test

Same cells, two reporters of different stability.

Prior art

Reporter dynamics in circadian recordings.

Refuted if

Period is reporter-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

neuroscience

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Light intensity at depth is computed from a generic scattering model for brain tissue.

Mechanism

Scattering and absorption vary with myelination, age, and fibre placement; a twofold error in the effective attenuation length changes the activated volume by nearly an order of magnitude. Reported thresholds are therefore apparatus-specific.

Discriminating observation

The activation threshold should vary with fibre insertion depth and with age in a way predicted by measured attenuation, and should be consistent across labs only when attenuation is measured in situ.

Test

In-situ attenuation measurement with threshold mapping.

Prior art

Light delivery in optogenetics.

Refuted if

Thresholds are invariant to fibre depth and age.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

neuroscience

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Field potentials are interpreted as population measures of synaptic strength.

Mechanism

The field potential is a weighted sum of dendritic currents with a spatial kernel set by the tissue conductivity and by the electrode position; a small displacement changes the weighting and hence the apparent plasticity magnitude.

Discriminating observation

The measured plasticity should change with electrode depth in a way predicted by the cable model, and should be reproducible only when depth is controlled.

Test

Depth-controlled recording series.

Prior art

Field-potential source localisation.

Refuted if

Plasticity magnitude is depth-independent within a cortical layer.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

genetics

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Mutation rate is from the Luria–Delbrück distribution of mutant colonies.

Mechanism

Mutants continue to divide during the phenotypic-expression delay and after plating; a longer delay increases the counted mutants and shifts the inferred rate. Protocols differ in delay without reporting it.

Discriminating observation

The inferred rate should increase with delay until the mutant progeny saturate, and should converge when the delay is fixed and reported.

Test

Delay series on a standard strain.

Prior art

Fluctuation-test methodology.

Refuted if

Inferred rate is delay-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

cytometry

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

PI staining gives DNA content and the fractions are from a standard cell-cycle model.

Mechanism

Fixation and permeabilisation change dye accessibility; condensed mitotic chromatin stains less, so mitotic cells are misassigned and the G2/M fraction is underestimated in samples with a high mitotic index.

Discriminating observation

The G2/M fraction should change with fixation protocol at fixed biology, and should agree with a mitotic marker when fixation is matched.

Test

Fixation series with a mitotic marker.

Prior art

Cell-cycle analysis by flow cytometry.

Refuted if

Phase fractions are fixation-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

pharmacology

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

IC₅₀ from 2D viability is compared with 3D spheroid response.

Mechanism

The viability assay's dynamic range depends on the aggregate's size and on dye penetration; in 3D the ATP readout is dominated by the outer layer, so the IC₅₀ shift is partly a readout artefact.

Discriminating observation

The 2D/3D IC₅₀ ratio should change when the readout is changed to one that lyses the whole spheroid, or when the spheroid is dissociated before assay.

Test

Paired readouts on the same spheroids.

Prior art

3D drug-response assays.

Refuted if

The ratio is readout-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

biochemistry

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Elution volume gives molecular weight and the oligomeric state is inferred.

Mechanism

Weak oligomers equilibrate during the run; a long column allows dissociation, so the measured state depends on flow rate. Reported states therefore reflect the column, not the solution.

Discriminating observation

The apparent molecular weight should decrease with lower flow rate for a weakly associating system, and should be invariant for a covalent oligomer.

Test

Flow-rate series on a known weak oligomer.

Prior art

SEC for oligomeric state.

Refuted if

Apparent molecular weight is flow-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiology

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Tolerance is the surviving fraction after antibiotic exposure and wash.

Mechanism

Washing disrupts the biofilm and releases cells that then grow in the recovery medium; the recovered fraction depends on the shear during washing, which is not standardised. Tolerance values are therefore method-defined.

Discriminating observation

Survival should decrease with wash shear and should converge with a validated, low-shear recovery.

Test

Wash-shear series with confocal quantification.

Prior art

Biofilm tolerance assays.

Refuted if

Survival is wash-shear independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

physiology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Transit time is the interval to marker appearance.

Mechanism

Non-absorbable markers can osmotically retain water and alter motility; the marker dose therefore changes the quantity measured. Comparisons across studies with different doses conflate marker load with physiology.

Discriminating observation

Transit time should depend on marker dose and osmolality, and should agree with an independent (e.g. breath-test) measure only at low dose.

Test

Dose series with an orthogonal transit measure.

Prior art

Transit-time measurement.

Refuted if

Transit time is dose-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

immunology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Cytokine concentrations are compared across plates and labs.

Mechanism

Surface wettability and adsorbed protein layer determine monocyte activation; untreated or differently treated polystyrene changes background cytokine release by a factor that is comparable to the effect being studied.

Discriminating observation

Background release should vary between plate brands at fixed cells and medium, and should correlate with the measured contact angle.

Test

Plate-brand comparison with contact-angle measurement.

Prior art

Cell-culture surface effects.

Refuted if

Background release is brand-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

geroscience

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Lifespan is compared between an intervention diet and a control from the same supplier.

Mechanism

Control diet formulations change between batches (ash content, mycotoxins, fatty-acid profile), and lifespan is sensitive to these; a between-batch change can produce an effect comparable to the intervention.

Discriminating observation

Lifespan should vary between control batches at the same nominal formulation, and the intervention effect should be re-estimated with batch as a random effect.

Test

Reanalysis of multi-batch cohorts.

Prior art

Diet variability in rodent studies.

Refuted if

Control-batch variance is negligible relative to the intervention effect.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

plant-physiology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Fv/Fm and electron-transport rates are from saturating pulses assumed to fully close reaction centres.

Mechanism

The saturating pulse is not saturating for sun-adapted leaves or for algae with large antennae; the residual open centres make the inferred quantum yield depend on pulse intensity. Reported stress responses therefore partly track the instrument's pulse.

Discriminating observation

The inferred yield should increase with pulse intensity and plateau; the plateau intensity should differ between sun- and shade-adapted material.

Test

Pulse-intensity series on both acclimation types.

Prior art

PAM fluorometry methodology.

Refuted if

Yield is pulse-intensity independent for sun-adapted leaves.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

ecology

class

blind-spot

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Richness is from amplicon sequencing with a standard primer pair.

Mechanism

Primer mismatches reduce amplification by orders of magnitude for some lineages; rare taxa with mismatches are absent not because they are rare but because they do not amplify. Richness is therefore a measure of primer compatibility.

Discriminating observation

Richness should increase when a second primer set with different mismatches is used, and the increase should be concentrated in lineages with predicted mismatches.

Test

Multi-primer comparison on the same eDNA.

Prior art

Primer bias in metabarcoding.

Refuted if

Richness is primer-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

ecology

class

time-dependent

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Thermal tolerance is measured after acclimation to a set temperature for a set period.

Mechanism

Hardening and heat-shock protein induction depend on the rate of temperature change; slow and fast acclimation to the same endpoint give different tolerances. Protocols differ in ramp rate without reporting it.

Discriminating observation

Tolerance should depend on acclimation ramp rate at fixed endpoint temperature, converging only for slow ramps.

Test

Ramp-rate series on one species.

Prior art

Thermal acclimation protocols.

Refuted if

Tolerance is ramp-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R22 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

epidemiology

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Odds ratios are estimated from measured concentrations with values below the limit of detection substituted or excluded.

Mechanism

Substitution (LOD/2 or LOD/√2) biases the exposure distribution, and the bias direction depends on the proportion below LOD, which differs between cases and controls. The measured association is therefore attenuated or inflated by the case mix rather than by biology.

Discriminating observation

The odds ratio should change when a censored-data (Tobit) model is used, and the change should scale with the below-LOD fraction difference.

Test

Reanalysis of published biomarker studies with reported LOD fractions.

Prior art

Limit-of-detection handling in epidemiology.

Refuted if

Odds ratios are unchanged under censored-data modelling.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

microbiome

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Probiotic effects are compared against a placebo capsule.

Mechanism

Many placebo capsules contain fermentable excipients (maltodextrin, inulin) that alter the microbiota; the "placebo" is therefore an active comparator, and the true effect of the organism is the difference between two active interventions.

Discriminating observation

The placebo arm's microbiota should shift from baseline, and the probiotic effect size should shrink when the placebo is changed to a non-fermentable excipient.

Test

Reanalysis of trials reporting placebo-arm compositional change.

Prior art

Excipient effects in probiotic trials.

Refuted if

Placebo arms show no compositional change.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

molecular-biology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Interaction strength is ranked by colony growth or by lacZ output.

Mechanism

The reporter saturates at modest interaction strength; above saturation all interactions look equal, and below the detection limit all look absent. The assay's useful range is therefore one to two orders of magnitude, and rank order outside it is arbitrary.

Discriminating observation

Rank order should change when the reporter's copy number or the selection stringency is changed, while a true affinity ranking should be invariant.

Test

Reanalysis across stringency conditions.

Prior art

Y2H quantitative limitations.

Refuted if

Rank order is stringency-invariant.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R25 →

file

04-biology.md

domain

pharmacology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Apparent permeability P_app is computed from flux and area.

Mechanism

The unstirred water layer adds a series resistance that is comparable to the monolayer's for lipophilic compounds; shaking rate and insert geometry therefore change P_app by a factor that is compound-dependent, and in-vitro/in-vivo correlations inherit the artefact.

Discriminating observation

P_app should increase with shaking rate for lipophilic compounds and be unchanged for hydrophilic ones, converging to a plateau.

Test

Shaking-rate series across a compound panel.

Prior art

UWL effects in Caco-2.

Refuted if

P_app is shaking-rate independent for lipophilic compounds.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

epigenomics

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Differential accessibility is called from peak counts normalised by library size.

Mechanism

Peak calling is depth-dependent: low-depth libraries yield fewer, broader peaks, so the feature set differs between conditions. Differences then arise from the feature set rather than from accessibility.

Discriminating observation

Reanalysis with a union peak set fixed before quantification should reduce the number of differential regions, and the reduction should scale with the depth difference.

Test

Reanalysis of public ATAC-seq pairs with depth imbalance.

Prior art

Differential accessibility methodology.

Refuted if

Differential regions are unchanged by using a fixed union peak set.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

developmental-biology

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Developmental stage is timed from a reference and compared across genotypes.

Mechanism

Light-sheet and confocal imaging deposit heat; the sample's temperature can rise by 1–3 K, accelerating development by 10–20%. Genotypes imaged with different laser powers are therefore developmentally misaligned.

Discriminating observation

Developmental rate should correlate with the imaging laser power at fixed genotype, and should match the plate-reader rate when the stage temperature is measured and controlled.

Test

Laser-power series with on-sample thermometry.

Prior art

Phototoxicity and heating in live imaging.

Refuted if

Developmental rate is laser-power independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

biophysics

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Young's modulus is from a Hertz fit to an indentation curve.

Mechanism

At indentations comparable to the cortical actin layer, the response is not Hertzian; the fitted modulus depends on the contact radius and on the indentation depth. Reported stiffnesses for the same tissue can differ by a factor of three depending on probe size.

Discriminating observation

Modulus should depend on probe radius and indentation depth in a way predicted by a layered model, and should converge for deep indentations with a large probe.

Test

Multi-probe measurement on the same tissue.

Prior art

AFM rheology of cells.

Refuted if

Modulus is probe-radius independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

physiology

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Metabolic rate is computed from steady-state CO₂ concentration and flow.

Mechanism

The chamber's washout time constant is comparable to the duration of flight bouts; the measured concentration is a convolution, and short bouts are underestimated. Reported peak rates depend on flow rate.

Discriminating observation

Peak metabolic rate should increase with flow rate and saturate, with the saturation set by the washout constant.

Test

Flow-rate series on the same animals.

Prior art

Respirometry washout corrections.

Refuted if

Peak rate is flow-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

evolution

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Mutation accumulation rates are from endpoint sequencing after serial passage.

Mechanism

The bottleneck size sets the strength of drift and the efficacy of selection; small bottlenecks allow deleterious mutations to accumulate, inflating the inferred mutation rate. Passaging protocols differ in bottleneck without reporting it.

Discriminating observation

The inferred rate should depend on bottleneck size and should converge to the neutral rate only for sufficiently small bottlenecks or with a selection-aware model.

Test

Bottleneck series on the same organism.

Prior art

Mutation-accumulation experiment design.

Refuted if

Inferred rate is bottleneck-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

immunology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Antibody titres are compared between vaccine formulations in mice from one facility.

Mechanism

The commensal microbiota provides adjuvant signals that vary between vendors and between cages; titre differences between formulations can be smaller than the between-vendor variance.

Discriminating observation

Titres should vary between vendors at fixed formulation, and the formulation ranking should be stable only within a vendor or after microbiota standardisation.

Test

Reanalysis of multi-vendor studies.

Prior art

Microbiota effects on vaccine responses.

Refuted if

Between-vendor variance is negligible.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

proteomics

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Turnover is from the exponential rise of labelled peptide fraction, assuming the precursor pool is at the administered enrichment.

Mechanism

Amino-acid precursor enrichment differs between tissues and between dietary states and is diluted by endogenous synthesis; using the administered value overestimates the precursor and therefore overestimates the turnover rate, with a tissue-dependent bias.

Discriminating observation

The inferred rate should change when the measured tissue-specific precursor enrichment is used, and the change should be largest in tissues with high endogenous synthesis.

Test

Reanalysis with measured precursor enrichment.

Prior art

Dynamic proteomics with heavy water.

Refuted if

Inferred rates are unchanged by precursor correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

04-biology.md

domain

pharmacology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Free-drug exposure is assumed to scale with total concentration across species.

Mechanism

Protein binding differs between mouse, rat, and human serum by factors of two to ten for highly bound antifungals; the free fraction that drives efficacy therefore differs, and mouse-to-human dose translation fails in a species-dependent direction.

Discriminating observation

The free fraction measured in each species' serum should predict the efficacy threshold better than total exposure, and the prediction should fail only for compounds with low binding.

Test

Cross-species free-fraction measurement with efficacy reanalysis.

Prior art

Free-drug exposure in PK/PD.

Refuted if

Total exposure predicts efficacy equally well across binding classes.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R23 →

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

environmental-engineering

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Optical particle sensors are calibrated against a reference in a dry chamber and deployed with a single slope.

Mechanism

Hygroscopic growth increases the optical diameter of particles at high RH; the reported PM₂.₅ then rises with humidity at constant mass. Co-location calibrations that span a narrow humidity range cannot identify the coefficient, so the deployed network's seasonal cycle contains a humidity artefact that mimics winter pollution.

Discriminating observation

The sensor/reference ratio at fixed reference PM should correlate with RH with a slope that is independent of site.

Test

Co-location data spanning a full humidity range.

Prior art

Low-cost sensor correction literature.

Refuted if

The ratio is RH-independent across sites.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

civil-engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Anomalies in strain or modal frequency are flagged as damage indicators.

Mechanism

Thermal expansion and the temperature dependence of the elastic modulus produce daily and seasonal strain cycles that are larger than early damage signatures; a detector trained on a short baseline learns the seasonal cycle as normal and flags its return as damage.

Discriminating observation

False alarms should cluster at particular seasons and should disappear when the detector includes measured temperature as a covariate.

Test

Retrospective analysis of long-term monitoring records with temperature.

Prior art

Environmental variability in SHM.

Refuted if

Alarm rate is uncorrelated with seasonal temperature after detrending.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

degeneracy

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Capacity fade is inferred from impedance growth attributed to SEI.

Mechanism

Stack pressure changes the electrode's particle contacts and hence the impedance without any chemical degradation; a cell that has lost compression (from cycling-induced swelling) looks aged. The estimator cannot separate mechanical from chemical aging with a single impedance measurement.

Discriminating observation

Impedance should change when stack pressure is externally varied on a cell of known chemistry, in the same direction as the "aging" signal.

Test

Pressure-controlled impedance on fresh cells.

Prior art

Pressure effects on cell impedance.

Refuted if

Impedance is pressure-independent at fixed state of charge.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

hydrology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Gauge catch is corrected with a wind-speed-dependent transfer function from a calibration campaign.

Mechanism

The gauge's orifice and shield degrade with age (rim wear, shield deformation), changing the aerodynamic collection efficiency; the correction derived from new gauges therefore under-corrects old ones, and the network's long-term trend contains a maintenance artefact.

Discriminating observation

The catch ratio against a reference gauge should decline with gauge age at matched wind speed.

Test

Age-stratified co-located comparisons.

Prior art

Precipitation undercatch corrections.

Refuted if

Catch ratio is age-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

geodesy

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Tide-gauge trends are corrected with nearby GNSS vertical velocities.

Mechanism

GNSS stations are anchored in bedrock while gauges are anchored in harbour structures; the two can move differently by tenths of a millimetre per year. The correction therefore removes a regional signal but not the local one, and the residual is systematic across harbours of similar construction.

Discriminating observation

Gauge-minus-GNSS trends should cluster by harbour construction type.

Test

Reanalysis with construction metadata.

Prior art

Tide-gauge and GNSS integration.

Refuted if

Residual trends are uncorrelated with construction type.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

seismology

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Magnitudes are from maximum amplitude with a distance correction, after clipping detection.

Mechanism

Clipping is detected only when the waveform is flat-topped; partial saturation of the digitizer or of the geophone's response compresses large amplitudes without visible clipping, biasing magnitudes low for the largest events and flattening the magnitude–frequency distribution.

Discriminating observation

The magnitude residual against a coda-based estimate should correlate with the peak amplitude's proximity to the channel's full scale.

Test

Reanalysis of stations with known full-scale values.

Prior art

Magnitude saturation and clipping.

Refuted if

Residuals are independent of proximity to full scale.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

remote-sensing

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Reflectivity is converted to rain rate with a Z–R relation fitted per region.

Mechanism

Convective storms have a different drop-size distribution in their growth and decay phases at the same rain rate; a single Z–R relation averages over lifecycle, so the estimate is unbiased on average but biased by ±40% at any instant, and the bias is correlated in time.

Discriminating observation

The radar/gauge ratio at fixed reflectivity should depend on the storm's lifecycle stage inferred independently (lightning rate or cloud-top temperature trend).

Test

Storm-resolved radar–gauge comparison.

Prior art

Z–R variability.

Refuted if

The ratio is lifecycle-independent at fixed reflectivity.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Power curves are normalised by the nacelle wind speed.

Mechanism

The nacelle anemometer sits behind the rotor and samples a slowed flow whose deficit depends on thrust coefficient and hence on operating point; the measured power curve therefore depends on the anemometer's location and on turbulence intensity, and manufacturers' curves are not comparable.

Discriminating observation

The power curve should shift when the anemometer is moved to a mast or to a forward boom, with the shift maximised near rated power.

Test

Side-by-side nacelle and mast measurements.

Prior art

Nacelle anemometry corrections.

Refuted if

Power curves are anemometer-position independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Soiling loss is inferred from the transmittance drop between clean and soiled reference coupons.

Mechanism

The reference coupon's surface energy differs from the module glass, and cleaning with water leaves a residue; the inferred loss therefore includes a cleaning artefact that accumulates over cycles and is larger for dry climates.

Discriminating observation

Inferred soiling rate should depend on the cleaning method and on the coupon material at the same site.

Test

Coupon-material and cleaning-method comparison.

Prior art

Soiling measurement standards.

Refuted if

Inferred rate is method-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

engineering

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Leak rate is estimated from the acoustic amplitude at a fixed attenuation coefficient.

Mechanism

Burial depth and soil moisture change the attenuation of the leak's acoustic emission by an order of magnitude; the same leak size produces amplitudes differing by 10×, and the inversion attributes the difference to leak size.

Discriminating observation

Inferred leak size should correlate with measured burial depth and soil moisture at fixed true leak (from excavation records).

Test

Excavation-verified data set.

Prior art

Acoustic leak localisation.

Refuted if

Inferred size is independent of burial depth.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

building-science

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Comfort models use air temperature and humidity from wall-mounted sensors.

Mechanism

Wall sensors are radiatively coupled to the wall; in a poorly insulated wall the sensor reads a temperature biased toward the outdoor value, so the control system's setpoint error is a function of the wall's U-value rather than of the room.

Discriminating observation

The sensor reading should differ from a shielded, aspirated reference by an amount proportional to the wall's U-value and the indoor–outdoor difference.

Test

Side-by-side sensor comparison across wall types.

Prior art

Sensor placement in HVAC control.

Refuted if

Readings are wall-type independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Capacity fade is attributed to active-species degradation.

Mechanism

Species crossover through the membrane depends on the concentration gradient at the membrane, which depends on flow rate and on the state of charge's spatial uniformity; a low-flow protocol allows stratification and increases local crossover. Reported fade rates therefore track the pump protocol.

Discriminating observation

Fade rate should decrease with increasing flow rate above a threshold and should correlate with the measured crossover current.

Test

Flow-rate series on the same cell.

Prior art

Crossover in redox flow batteries.

Refuted if

Fade rate is flow-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

seismology

class

circularity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Site amplification is the spectral ratio of a target station to a reference station on rock.

Mechanism

The reference station is never perfectly rigid; its amplification correlates with the target's because both are driven by the same regional wavefield. Standard spectral ratios therefore underestimate the true amplification and the underestimation grows as the reference degrades.

Discriminating observation

Amplification should increase when the reference is replaced by a borehole sensor at depth, with the increase tracking the reference's measured downhole/urface ratio.

Test

Sites with paired surface and borehole references.

Prior art

Site-response estimation.

Refuted if

Amplification is reference-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

glaciology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Stake emergence gives point mass balance, interpolated over the glacier.

Mechanism

A dark stake absorbs radiation and enhances local melt, creating a depression that the next measurement records as additional ablation; the bias scales with stake albedo and with the number of seasons.

Discriminating observation

Balance should be more negative at stakes than at nearby un-staked ice, with the difference scaling with stake albedo.

Test

Paired staked and reference plots.

Prior art

Stake-based mass balance.

Refuted if

Staked and unstaked plots agree within error.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R29 →

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

atmospheric-science

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Ozone partial pressure is computed from the electrochemical cell's current with a constant pump correction.

Mechanism

Pump efficiency falls with the reduced pressure and with contamination; the correction is a function of the sonde's age and of the launch profile, so long-term records from a changing fleet contain an instrument-generation trend that is confounded with the atmospheric trend.

Discriminating observation

The sonde-to-satellite or sonde-to-lidar ratio should differ between sonde generations after correction.

Test

Intercomparison campaigns across generations.

Prior art

Ozonesonde homogenisation.

Refuted if

Ratios are generation-independent after standard correction.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

hydrology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Neutron intensity is inverted to soil moisture with a calibration that includes a biomass correction from a single sampling.

Mechanism

The sensor's footprint integrates hydrogen from soil, vegetation, and the atmosphere; seasonal biomass growth changes the vegetation hydrogen pool by an amount comparable to a 0.05 change in volumetric moisture. A static biomass correction therefore produces a spurious seasonal cycle.

Discriminating observation

The residual between sensor and gravimetric moisture should correlate with measured biomass at fixed true moisture.

Test

Sites with paired biomass and gravimetric sampling.

Prior art

Cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture.

Refuted if

Residuals are uncorrelated with biomass.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

atmospheric-science

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Roughness length is from wind-profile fitting above the canopy.

Mechanism

The tower and its instrumentation disturb the flow; the measured profile is inside the tower's wake for some wind directions, which biases the fitted roughness in a direction that depends on the tower's porosity.

Discriminating observation

Fitted roughness should vary with wind direction relative to the tower, with a minimum in the direction of least wake.

Test

Direction-resolved analysis on a single tower.

Prior art

Tower-flow distortion.

Refuted if

Roughness is direction-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

hydrology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Recharge is the water-table rise times a constant specific yield.

Mechanism

Specific yield decreases with depth to the water table because the capillary fringe occupies a larger fraction of the profile; using a constant value overestimates recharge for deep water tables and underestimates it for shallow ones.

Discriminating observation

The ratio of recharge to water-table rise should depend on depth to water table across sites.

Test

Multi-site analysis with depth-stratified specific yield.

Prior art

Water-table fluctuation method.

Refuted if

The ratio is depth-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Electrical-resistance probes give a corrosion rate averaged over the deployment.

Mechanism

Corrosion is controlled by the cathodic reaction, which depends on oxygen supply; seasonal water-table fluctuations change the aeration and hence the rate by an order of magnitude. A probe's average therefore reflects the deployment season.

Discriminating observation

Probe-derived rates should differ between installations at the same site made in different seasons, and should correlate with measured redox potential.

Test

Multi-season probe deployments.

Prior art

Soil corrosion monitoring.

Refuted if

Rates are deployment-season independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

mechanical-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

S–N curves from standard coupons are applied to structures.

Mechanism

Residual stress shifts the effective stress ratio; a coupon stress-relieved by its small size has a different crack-growth driving force than a full-scale weld. Life predictions therefore depend on the specimen's manufacturing history rather than on the material.

Discriminating observation

Fatigue life should change when the specimen's residual stress is deliberately varied at fixed geometry and material.

Test

Residual-stress-controlled coupon series.

Prior art

Residual stress in fatigue design.

Refuted if

Life is residual-stress independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

thermal-engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Overall heat-transfer coefficient is measured on a clean exchanger and derated with a fouling factor.

Mechanism

The first run deposits a layer whose thermal resistance is comparable to the design fouling factor; the "clean" reference is therefore taken too early, and the fouling factor double-counts.

Discriminating observation

The coefficient should drop between the first and second run at identical conditions, and should recover partially after cleaning.

Test

Repeated runs on the same exchanger.

Prior art

Fouling factor methodology.

Refuted if

Coefficient is run-order independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

nonlinearity

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Polarisation curves are measured by stepping current upward and recorded as steady state.

Mechanism

Bubble coverage depends on nucleation site history; stepping upward leaves a supersaturated electrolyte that produces more bubbles at a given current than a downward step, so the two directions give different curves. The reported curve is a protocol artefact.

Discriminating observation

Upward and downward polarisation curves should differ by more than the measurement error, with the hysteresis scaling with current density.

Test

Direction-resolved polarisation on one cell.

Prior art

Bubble effects in electrolyser testing.

Refuted if

Upward and downward curves coincide.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

transport-engineering

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Delay propagation is quantified by the ratio of delay at successive stations, excluding delays below a punctuality threshold.

Mechanism

Small delays are the ones that amplify most (they have slack to lose); excluding them conditions the estimate on the tail and biases the amplification factor downward.

Discriminating observation

The amplification factor should increase as the threshold is lowered, converging only at zero threshold.

Test

Reanalysis of automatic train-running data at several thresholds.

Prior art

Delay propagation analysis.

Refuted if

The factor is threshold-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

building-science

class

selection

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Comfort votes are collected from occupants and regressed on measured conditions.

Mechanism

Response rates are higher among those dissatisfied; the sample's dissatisfaction is therefore higher than the population's, and the regression's intercept is biased while its slope is nearly unbiased. Predicted comfort temperatures are then wrong by a fixed offset.

Discriminating observation

The intercept should shift with response rate while the slope stays constant, and both should stabilise when non-responders are sampled by a separate mechanism.

Test

Response-rate-stratified surveys.

Prior art

Non-response bias in comfort surveys.

Refuted if

Intercept is response-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

civil-engineering

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Carbonation depth follows a t^0.5 law whose rate constant is fitted at elevated CO₂ and extrapolated to ambient.

Mechanism

At high CO₂ the reaction product is a different polymorph and the pore blocking differs, so the rate constant's dependence on concentration is not the square root that the extrapolation assumes.

Discriminating observation

The fitted rate constant should scale with CO₂ concentration with an exponent different from 0.5, and the exponent should differ between binders.

Test

Multi-concentration carbonation series.

Prior art

Accelerated carbonation testing.

Refuted if

The exponent is 0.5 for all binders.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

instrumentation

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Bias stability is quoted from Allan deviation at controlled ambient temperature.

Mechanism

On-chip thermal gradients generate thermoelectric voltages in the metallisation; the gradient depends on the package's mounting and on the PCB's power dissipation. The quoted stability therefore reflects the test fixture.

Discriminating observation

Bias drift should correlate with the measured on-chip gradient rather than with ambient temperature, and should change when the mounting is changed.

Test

Multi-mount comparison with on-chip thermometry.

Prior art

Thermal effects in MEMS inertial sensors.

Refuted if

Drift is mount-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

acoustics

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Sound reduction index is measured in reverberant rooms per standard, with a correction for receiving-room absorption.

Mechanism

The correction assumes a diffuse field; in rooms with non-uniform absorption the correction is biased, and the bias is larger at low frequencies where modal behaviour dominates. Reported indices for the same partition can differ by several decibels.

Discriminating observation

Measured index should depend on the receiving room's absorption distribution, not only on its average.

Test

Inter-laboratory comparison with absorption mapping.

Prior art

Acoustic transmission suite standards.

Refuted if

Indices are absorption-distribution independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R16 →

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

OCV is read after a fixed rest and mapped to SOC.

Mechanism

Diffusion relaxation in thick electrodes takes hours; a 1 h rest leaves a voltage offset whose sign depends on the prior current direction, so the SOC error is hysteresis-like and depends on the cycling history rather than on the cell.

Discriminating observation

OCV at fixed SOC should depend on the preceding current direction and should converge only after multi-hour rests.

Test

Rest-duration series after charge and after discharge.

Prior art

OCV–SOC hysteresis.

Refuted if

OCV is history-independent after 1 h.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

fire-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Fire resistance ratings come from furnace tests with a standard time–temperature curve.

Mechanism

The furnace's ventilation condition changes the equivalence ratio and hence the heat flux and the combustion chemistry of the specimen; ratings obtained in different furnaces differ by minutes, which is comparable to the design margin.

Discriminating observation

Time to failure should differ between furnaces at matched nominal curve, and should correlate with measured heat flux rather than with nominal temperature.

Test

Inter-laboratory furnace comparison with heat-flux gauges.

Prior art

Fire-test variability.

Refuted if

Failure times are furnace-independent at matched heat flux.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

environmental-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Emission factors are from dynamometer tests with a standard dilution.

Mechanism

Semivolatile species partition between particle and gas phase on a timescale set by dilution and temperature; a different dilution ratio changes the measured PM mass by tens of percent. Emission factors are therefore dilution-defined.

Discriminating observation

Measured PM should depend on dilution ratio in a way predicted by partitioning theory, converging only at high dilution.

Test

Dilution-ratio series on the same brake cycle.

Prior art

Dilution effects in brake wear measurement.

Refuted if

Emission factors are dilution-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

building-science

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

κ is measured on a thin slab in a guarded hot plate and applied to thick layers.

Mechanism

At the application thickness, natural convection within the porous structure and at the boundaries becomes significant; the thin-specimen value therefore underestimates the in-service conductivity, and the discrepancy grows with thickness and with the temperature difference.

Discriminating observation

Measured κ should increase with specimen thickness above a threshold, and the threshold should depend on the pore size.

Test

Thickness series at several temperature differences.

Prior art

Convection in porous insulation.

Refuted if

κ is thickness-independent up to the application thickness.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Pack thermal models use a fixed cell-to-coolant conductance.

Mechanism

Cycling swells the cell, increasing contact pressure and conductance; models fitted on fresh packs over-predict temperatures late in life, and safety margins are set from the fresh-pack fit.

Discriminating observation

Measured contact conductance should increase with cycle count, in step with measured cell thickness.

Test

Ageing series with thickness and thermal-impedance measurement.

Prior art

Thermal contact in battery packs.

Refuted if

Conductance is age-independent at fixed thickness.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

civil-engineering

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Natural frequencies and damping are from a hammer or shaker test and used to predict response to walking.

Mechanism

Damping is amplitude-dependent for floors with non-structural partitions; a low-amplitude modal test measures a damping far below the in-service value, so the predicted resonant response is too high, and the calibration of the design guide inherits the bias.

Discriminating observation

Damping should increase with excitation amplitude in floors with partitions, and predicted responses should match measured walking responses only when amplitude-matched.

Test

Amplitude-series modal testing.

Prior art

Amplitude-dependent damping in floors.

Refuted if

Damping is amplitude-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

System efficiency is compared with the material's zT to validate the material.

Mechanism

Contact resistance, thermal shunting through the insulation, and the parasitic load of the converter are lumped into an apparent material degradation; the discrepancy is then attributed to a materials problem and drives the wrong optimisation.

Discriminating observation

The system/material gap should correlate with independently measured contact and shunt terms across systems.

Test

Reanalysis of module data with contact measurements.

Prior art

TEG system efficiency.

Refuted if

The gap is uncorrelated with parasitics.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

atmospheric-science

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

AOD is from the Langley calibration and the instrument's internal temperature is logged but not used.

Mechanism

Filter transmission and detector responsivity drift with temperature; the diurnal temperature swing produces an apparent diurnal AOD cycle that is currently interpreted as boundary-layer growth.

Discriminating observation

AOD residuals should correlate with the instrument's internal temperature after removing air-mass effects, with a coefficient that is filter-specific.

Test

Reanalysis of long AOD records with temperature telemetry.

Prior art

Sun-photometer temperature characterisation.

Refuted if

Residuals are uncorrelated with internal temperature.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

remote-sensing

class

assumption

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Land surface temperature is from a split-window algorithm with an assumed emissivity.

Mechanism

Emissivity differs between asphalt, roofs, and vegetation by 0.05–0.15, producing brightness-temperature errors of several kelvin; the urban–rural difference therefore partly reflects material composition rather than heat storage.

Discriminating observation

The urban–rural difference should change when emissivity is retrieved per pixel rather than assumed, and the change should correlate with land-cover composition.

Test

Reanalysis with a per-pixel emissivity product.

Prior art

Emissivity in LST retrieval.

Refuted if

The difference is emissivity-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

geology

class

selection

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Recurrence intervals are from the number of events in a stratigraphic section divided by its duration.

Mechanism

Small displacement events are not preserved or not recognised; the completeness threshold depends on sedimentation rate and on the trench's exposure. Sections with different rates therefore give different "recurrence", and the difference is a detection effect.

Discriminating observation

Recurrence should correlate with sedimentation rate at fixed fault, converging when only large events are counted.

Test

Multi-site compilation with rate metadata.

Prior art

Paleoseismic completeness.

Refuted if

Recurrence is sedimentation-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

geophysics

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Heat flux is from a temperature log after drilling.

Mechanism

Drilling fluid circulation resets the temperature profile; the re-equilibration time scales with the borehole radius squared over thermal diffusivity and can exceed the logging delay. The measured gradient therefore reflects the disturbance, and the bias is larger for larger holes.

Discriminating observation

The inferred flux should decrease with successive logs over months and should converge; the convergence time should scale with hole diameter.

Test

Repeated logging series.

Prior art

Borehole thermal re-equilibration.

Refuted if

Flux is stable from the first log.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

civil-engineering

class

time-dependent

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Scour is measured once and compared with a design value.

Mechanism

Scour holes refill during low flow; the measured depth depends on the time since the last peak flow, so a survey after a quiet period underestimates the maximum. Design comparisons are therefore biased by survey timing.

Discriminating observation

Scour depth should decay after peak flow at a rate set by the sediment's settling velocity, and repeated surveys should show the decay.

Test

Post-flood survey series.

Prior art

Scour monitoring.

Refuted if

Scour depth is stable between floods.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

building-science

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Ventilation rates are from models using tabulated wind pressure coefficients.

Mechanism

Coefficients depend on the surrounding obstructions and change with wind direction; a 20% error in the coefficient changes the predicted ventilation rate by a comparable amount, and the error is absorbed into the occupant's adaptive behaviour, biasing comfort models.

Discriminating observation

Predicted and measured ventilation rates (from tracer gas) should diverge systematically with wind direction in a way predicted by the coefficient's direction dependence.

Test

Tracer-gas campaigns with directional analysis.

Prior art

Wind pressure coefficients in ventilation models.

Refuted if

Predicted rates match measured across directions.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Onset temperature is from accelerating rate calorimetry with a standard sample holder.

Mechanism

The holder's thermal mass and the sample's contact area set the heat-loss term; onset is defined by a self-heating rate threshold, which is a heat-balance quantity. Different holders therefore give different onset temperatures for the same cell.

Discriminating observation

Onset should shift with holder mass at fixed cell, in the direction predicted by the heat balance.

Test

Holder-mass series.

Prior art

ARC methodology.

Refuted if

Onset is holder-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

limnology

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Benthic chambers measure oxygen drawdown over time.

Mechanism

The diffusive boundary layer thickness depends on stirring; a thick layer limits flux and the measured demand underestimates the true one. Reported demands therefore reflect chamber design.

Discriminating observation

Measured demand should increase with stirring and saturate at the mass-transfer limit; the saturation should depend on the sediment's roughness.

Test

Stirring series across sediment types.

Prior art

Benthic chamber methodology.

Refuted if

Demand is stirring-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

environmental-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Emission is the known tracer release rate times the measured ratio of methane to tracer downwind.

Mechanism

The ratio assumes the tracer and methane disperse identically; a tracer released at a different height or with a different buoyancy samples a different part of the plume, so the ratio depends on the release geometry.

Discriminating observation

The inferred emission should change with tracer release height at fixed source, converging only when the release matches the source's effective height.

Test

Height-series releases at one site.

Prior art

Tracer-release emission measurement.

Refuted if

Emission is release-height independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

geotechnical

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Capacity is measured at a fixed time after driving and applied to long-term design.

Mechanism

Pore-pressure dissipation and thixotropic recovery increase capacity with time; measurements at 7 days are below the long-term value, and the fraction recovered depends on the soil's plasticity. Design therefore depends on the test's timing.

Discriminating observation

Capacity should increase logarithmically with time since driving, with a slope that correlates with the soil's plasticity index.

Test

Multi-time load tests on instrumented piles.

Prior art

Pile setup.

Refuted if

Capacity is time-independent beyond one day.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

building-science

class

boundary-condition

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

ACH50 is converted to natural infiltration by a leakage–infiltration ratio.

Mechanism

The conversion assumes the leakage distribution and the stack effect are unchanged, but the blower door pressurises the whole envelope uniformly while in service the driving pressure varies by height. The conversion therefore depends on the building's leak distribution, which the test does not measure.

Discriminating observation

Predicted infiltration should diverge from tracer-gas measurements in buildings with vertically uneven leakage, in a direction predicted by the leak distribution.

Test

Paired blower-door and tracer-gas measurements with leak localisation.

Prior art

Leakage–infiltration conversions.

Refuted if

Predicted and measured rates agree regardless of leak distribution.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

hydrology

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Extreme indices are computed from fixed-interval maxima.

Mechanism

Automation changed the integration interval (e.g. from tipping-bucket counts to 1-minute samples), and the maximum over a shorter interval is systematically higher for the same storm. The trend in extremes therefore contains an instrument-transition step.

Discriminating observation

The extreme index should show a step at the automation date that is absent in co-located manual records.

Test

Parallel-record analysis across transition dates.

Prior art

Instrument inhomogeneity in climate series.

Refuted if

No step is detectable at transition dates after homogenisation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

geotechnical

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Thermal conductivity is from a transient line-source probe with a fixed geometry factor.

Mechanism

As the soil dries it shrinks away from the probe, adding a contact resistance that grows with dryness; the measured conductivity falls faster than the true one, and the effect is confounded with the material's own moisture dependence.

Discriminating observation

Measured conductivity should depend on the probe's diameter and on the installation method at matched moisture.

Test

Multi-probe comparison at controlled moisture.

Prior art

Soil thermal conductivity probes.

Refuted if

Conductivity is probe-geometry independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

occupational-health

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Dosimeters are worn on the shoulder and assumed to sample the worker's exposure.

Mechanism

The torso and head shadow high frequencies by several decibels, and the shadow depends on the source's direction relative to the body; exposure metrics therefore depend on posture and on the dominant source direction.

Discriminating observation

Measured level should change with the dosimeter's position on the body and with the worker's orientation to the source.

Test

Multi-position dosimetry with source tracking.

Prior art

Dosimeter placement effects.

Refuted if

Levels are position-independent within 1 dB.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

energy-engineering

class

boundary-condition

readiness

4

novelty

2

Baseline

Efficiency is from a standard test at a specified flow rate.

Mechanism

The collector's efficiency factor depends on the flow rate through the plate-to-tube bond resistance; at lower operating flow the efficiency drops, and the standard test's flow is above typical operation. Ratings therefore overstate field performance.

Discriminating observation

Efficiency should decrease with flow rate below the test value in a way predicted by the fin efficiency.

Test

Flow-rate series on one collector.

Prior art

Collector test standards.

Refuted if

Efficiency is flow-rate independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

05-engineering-earth.md

domain

earthquake-engineering

class

selection

readiness

3

novelty

3

Baseline

Vulnerability curves are from post-earthquake damage surveys.

Mechanism

Surveyors are directed to buildings that are visibly affected; the surveyed sample is enriched in weak structures, so the fragility curve is shifted toward higher vulnerability. Extrapolating to the stock overestimates loss.

Discriminating observation

Fragility should depend on the survey's sampling frame, and should shift when a random sample of the stock is surveyed.

Test

Comparison of targeted and random samples after one event.

Prior art

Post-earthquake survey methodology.

Refuted if

Targeted and random samples give the same fragility.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R01 →

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

identifiability

readiness

5

novelty

4

Baseline

A power law y = At^(−α) is fitted to a decay over whatever range is available, and α is reported as a system property.

Mechanism

With an unsubtracted additive offset c, the local log–log slope is s(x) = −α/(1+Be^{αx}), B = c/A: a logistic in ln t of width 1/α. A straight-line fit averages that logistic, so α_fit/α depends on where the window sits relative to the crossover t_c = (A/c)^{1/α}, and equals exactly 1/2 when the window is centred on it.

Discriminating observation

α should shift systematically when a free offset is allowed; the shift should be predicted by the fitted t_c.

Test

Re-fit published decays with a free offset; complete derivation, Cramér–Rao bounds and Monte Carlo in investigation I1.

Prior art

I1 of this collection; baseline-subtraction practice.

Refuted if

Published exponents are unchanged by a free offset and show no curvature.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

errors-in-variables

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Calibration slopes are fitted by ordinary least squares with the standard concentration treated as exact.

Mechanism

Pipetting error makes the true concentration differ from the nominal one; OLS with error only in y is unbiased, but the standard practice of fitting y on x with x uncertain, or of using the inverse calibration for prediction, attenuates the slope by 1/(1+λ) with λ = σ²_x/σ²_est.

Discriminating observation

The calibration slope should increase when the standards are prepared by independent weighings rather than serial dilution, with the increase predicted by the measured pipetting variance.

Test

Serial vs independent standard series on the same instrument.

Prior art

Regression dilution in analytical chemistry.

Refuted if

Slopes agree within error between the two preparation routes.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

model-artifact

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

A polynomial baseline is fitted to regions chosen by eye, then the peak is fitted on the residual.

Mechanism

Window choice changes the baseline curvature, which changes the peak's width and amplitude in a correlated way; the fitted area can vary by 10–30% between analysts on the same spectrum while every fit looks good.

Discriminating observation

Inter-analyst variance in fitted peak area should exceed the fit covariance by a factor that scales with window length.

Test

Multi-analyst re-fitting of a shared spectral set.

Prior art

Baseline-correction methodology in spectroscopy.

Refuted if

Inter-analyst variance is within the reported fit errors.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

time-dependent

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Spectral peaks are interpreted as resonances once they exceed a significance threshold.

Mechanism

Sampling a monotonic drift at a fixed cadence produces a low-frequency ramp whose spectral leakage appears as a peak at the drift's beat frequency; windowing redistributes but does not remove it. The peak frequency then depends on the sampling cadence, not on the system.

Discriminating observation

The peak frequency should move when the sampling cadence is changed, while a true resonance stays fixed.

Test

Multi-cadence resampling of an existing record.

Prior art

Spectral leakage and aliasing.

Refuted if

Peak frequencies are cadence-invariant.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

ill-posed

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Deconvolution is regularised and the regularisation strength is chosen to make the residual structureless.

Mechanism

The chosen regularisation is a bias–variance trade selected on the residual, which is insensitive to bias; fast components are systematically suppressed or, with too little regularisation, synthesised from noise. The number of resolvable components is therefore a property of the regulariser.

Discriminating observation

The recovered component count should change with regularisation strength and with sampling rate for the same underlying data.

Test

Regularisation sweep on a dataset with a known synthetic truth.

Prior art

Regularised deconvolution.

Refuted if

Component counts are stable across regularisation strengths spanning a decade.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

model-artifact

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Bayesian model averaging gives posteriors that account for model uncertainty within the candidate set.

Mechanism

The posterior mass is normalised within the set, so the variance reflects only the spread among candidates; if the true model is outside the set, the reported uncertainty is arbitrarily small and the interval excludes the truth with high probability.

Discriminating observation

Coverage should degrade as the candidate set is made less complete, while remaining nominal for complete sets.

Test

Coverage simulation with a deliberately incomplete model set.

Prior art

Model-averaging coverage.

Refuted if

Coverage stays nominal when the truth is excluded from the set.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

circularity

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Normalisation, feature selection, or imputation are applied to the full dataset, then k-fold CV is run.

Mechanism

The preprocessing statistics contain information from the held-out fold, so the CV estimate is optimistically biased; the bias grows with the number of features and with the strength of the preprocessing.

Discriminating observation

Reported skill should drop when preprocessing is nested inside each fold, with the drop scaling with the number of features.

Test

Re-run published pipelines with nested preprocessing.

Prior art

Data leakage in predictive modelling.

Refuted if

Skill estimates are unchanged by nesting.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

artefact

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Reported means and uncertainties are treated as exact draws from the underlying distribution.

Mechanism

Values are rounded to the reporting precision, so the measurement error distribution is uniform within a bin rather than Gaussian; meta-analytic weights computed from the reported σ therefore mis-weight studies with different reporting precision, and heterogeneity statistics acquire spurious structure.

Discriminating observation

Heterogeneity should correlate with reporting precision across studies of the same quantity.

Test

Reanalysis of published meta-analytic datasets with precision metadata.

Prior art

Rounding in meta-analysis.

Refuted if

Heterogeneity is uncorrelated with reporting precision.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R10 →

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Measurements are expressed relative to a reference or control to remove batch effects.

Mechanism

The reference's error is common to all normalised values and therefore does not average out; it appears as a correlation between nominally independent samples, which is then mistaken for biological or physical structure.

Discriminating observation

Inter-sample correlations should persist after randomising which sample is used as reference, if they are real, and should vanish or invert if they are reference artefacts.

Test

Reference-permutation analysis on existing data.

Prior art

Compositional and reference normalisation.

Refuted if

Correlations are invariant to reference permutation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

artefact

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Fractions or percentages are analysed with correlation, PCA, or regression directly.

Mechanism

Components constrained to sum to one have spurious negative correlations; the strength depends on the number of components and on the total, so a compositional dataset analysed naively always shows a "trade-off" between components.

Discriminating observation

Spurious correlations should appear in a synthetic closed dataset with independent components, and should vanish under log-ratio transformation.

Test

Simulation plus reanalysis of a published compositional dataset.

Prior art

Compositional data analysis.

Refuted if

Correlations are unchanged by log-ratio transformation.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Values below a limit are replaced by a constant or excluded.

Mechanism

Substitution compresses the low end; if the quantity is increasing over time, the fraction censored falls, so the substituted values occupy less of the record and the trend is steepened (or flattened, depending on substitution) by an amount that depends on the censoring fraction.

Discriminating observation

The trend should change when a censored-data likelihood is used, and the change should scale with the censoring fraction's trend.

Test

Reanalysis of environmental time series with reported detection limits.

Prior art

Censored-data methods.

Refuted if

Trends are unchanged under censored likelihoods.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

model-disagreement

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Interlaboratory scatter is interpreted as random; a consistent offset is interpreted as one lab's error.

Mechanism

A method-dependent systematic (e.g. a calibration standard's purity) is common to both labs and therefore invisible in the comparison; the comparison can only bound the *differential* error, and the common part propagates into any value traceable to that method.

Discriminating observation

Comparison against a method with a different systematic (a primary method) should shift both labs together.

Test

Reanalysis of key comparisons with a primary-method link.

Prior art

Metrological traceability.

Refuted if

Primary-method comparison leaves both labs unchanged.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R20 →

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

time-dependent

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Error bars on a time average use an autocorrelation time estimated from the same record.

Mechanism

A slowly varying mean looks like long correlation at long lags but is fitted away by detrending; detrending removes exactly the variance that dominates the uncertainty, so the estimated correlation time is short and the error bar is small by the ratio of the trend's variance to the residual's.

Discriminating observation

Error bars should grow when estimated from an ensemble of records rather than from one record's autocorrelation.

Test

Comparison of single-record and ensemble error estimates on replicated measurements.

Prior art

Non-stationary time-series uncertainty.

Refuted if

Single-record and ensemble error estimates agree.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

inference

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

A tension is declared when the difference exceeds a threshold in units of the combined uncertainty.

Mechanism

The threshold is a false-positive rate, not a model-selection criterion; with many comparisons, and with uncertainties that are themselves estimated, the expected number of "tensions" is nonzero even when both methods are unbiased, and the excess is driven by the uncertainty distribution's tails.

Discriminating observation

The number of declared tensions should match the false-positive expectation when a null quantity is measured many times by both methods.

Test

Null-comparison audit within a single field.

Prior art

Significance thresholds in measurement comparison.

Refuted if

Null comparisons yield far fewer tensions than the false-positive rate.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

Refined lead R09 →

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

model-artifact

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

Data spanning decades are fitted as ln y vs x because the scatter looks homoscedastic in log space.

Mechanism

With additive Gaussian noise, ln y is negatively biased by half the relative variance; the bias is largest where y is smallest, so a log-space fit bends the low end upward and reduces the fitted slope. The distortion is systematic, not random.

Discriminating observation

The fitted slope should change when the fit is performed in linear space with the correct error model, and the change should scale with the relative noise at the faint end.

Test

Refit published data with the correct likelihood.

Prior art

Log-transform bias.

Refuted if

Slopes agree between log-space and correct-likelihood fits.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

ill-posed

readiness

5

novelty

2

Baseline

Peaks in a derivative spectrum are located after Savitzky–Golay smoothing.

Mechanism

The smoothing kernel's sidelobes create derivative structure at the kernel's width; a feature whose true width is below the kernel appears at the kernel scale, so the reported position and width describe the filter.

Discriminating observation

The feature's width should scale with the smoothing window, and should converge only for windows narrower than the true width.

Test

Window-series reanalysis.

Prior art

Savitzky–Golay artefacts.

Refuted if

Feature width is window-independent.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

hidden-parameter

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Uncertainty is the standard error of repeated measurements on one instrument.

Mechanism

Repeats share the calibration, the sample preparation, and the operator; the standard error therefore estimates precision, not accuracy. The ratio of reproducibility to repeatability is a measurable quantity that is rarely reported, and it sets the true uncertainty.

Discriminating observation

The ratio should exceed one by an amount that depends on the number of shared steps, and should approach one only for fully independent replicates.

Test

Nested variance analysis on a published interlaboratory dataset.

Prior art

Repeatability vs reproducibility.

Refuted if

The ratio is unity for measurements sharing calibration.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

selection

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

Class-imbalanced data are downsampled so that the fit is not dominated by the majority class.

Mechanism

The discarded majority samples are concentrated where the model is well constrained; after downsampling, the fit is dominated by the sparse region and the model's behaviour in the discarded regime is unconstrained but is reported as if fitted.

Discriminating observation

Predictions in the majority regime should degrade after downsampling, and the degradation should be invisible in cross-validation that also uses the downsampled set.

Test

Downsampled vs weighted-likelihood comparison.

Prior art

Class imbalance in regression.

Refuted if

Predictions are unchanged between downsampling and weighting.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

extrapolation

readiness

4

novelty

3

Baseline

A model fitted over a range is used outside it, justified by a high R².

Mechanism

R² is computed inside the range and is insensitive to the model's behaviour outside it; any smooth function can fit a finite range well while diverging outside, so the fit quality carries no information about extrapolation error.

Discriminating observation

Hold-out tests at the range's edges should predict the extrapolation error, while in-range R² should not correlate with it.

Test

Edge-hold-out on published fits.

Prior art

Extrapolation risk.

Refuted if

In-range R² predicts out-of-range error.

Permanent entry link

Exploratory hypothesis · source scores unverified

file

06-crosscutting.md

domain

methodology

class

model-disagreement

readiness

5

novelty

3

Baseline

A recommended value is a weighted mean with weights from the reported uncertainties, sometimes with a scale factor.

Mechanism

When the measurements are discrepant, the weighted mean is dominated by the smallest quoted uncertainty; a 20% change in that uncertainty moves the consensus by more than the discrepancy it was meant to resolve.

Discriminating observation

The consensus should move by more than its stated uncertainty when the smallest weight is perturbed within its own uncertainty.

Test

Sensitivity analysis on published evaluations.

Prior art

Data evaluation and weighting.

Refuted if

Consensus is stable under weight perturbation within quoted errors.