Last-Mile Emissions Track Stops

01The evidence

• Industry assessments of sustainable last-mile delivery identify route density and failed-delivery rates as primary determinants of emissions per parcel, ahead of vehicle powertrain.Industry guide, 2026

02The tension

Last-mile decarbonisation is framed as fleet replacement: electric vans for diesel. That framing is measurable and popular, and it ignores the fact that emissions per parcel depend on how many parcels share a kilometre, which is a routing and consolidation variable.

03The theory

Emissions per parcel are vehicle emissions per kilometre divided by parcels per kilometre. Electrification reduces the numerator; consolidation increases the denominator.

If density is the larger lever, then a diesel round serving fifty drops per kilometre can beat an electric round serving ten, and the ranking should invert depending on density. That is a testable crossover.

The prediction is that emissions per parcel should correlate with stop density more strongly than with powertrain across real fleets, and that consolidation policies should outperform electrification per unit of abatement cost.

The practical consequence is that parcel lockers, delivery windows and zoning are decarbonisation instruments, not conveniences.

04What this is not

05Predictions

• P1Emissions per parcel should correlate with stop density more than with powertrain.
• P2A density crossover should exist where diesel outperforms electric.
• P3Consolidation should abate more per unit cost than fleet replacement.

06What would refute it

Emissions tracking powertrain at controlled density would leave electrification primary.

07What it would change

It would move last-mile policy from vehicles to consolidation.