Incoprea Research

Original Theories Volume VI · science index

18 retained entries from the original 23. Original entry numbers are preserved. These are working hypotheses, not findings or proofs.

Radiology & Medical Imaging

• Theory 06 · Medical AI Fails on Physics, Not People
  Imaging models lose accuracy across sites because of scanner-level differences in acquisition physics rather than because of patient population differences, so generalisation should be fixed by harmonising acquisition and recalibrating physics rather than by collecting more diverse patients.
• Theory 07 · Triage Moves Errors, It Doesn't Remove Them
  AI triage changes the distribution of radiologist errors rather than reducing their number, so deployment should be judged on which errors move, and cases where the model and reader agree are where new misses concentrate.
• Theory 05 · Contrast Timing Is Haemodynamic
  Optimal contrast timing is set by the patient's cardiac output rather than by a fixed delay after injection, so scan delays should be computed from haemodynamics, and fixed protocols systematically under- or over-time in patients with abnormal circulation.

Oncology

• Theory 04 · Cachexia Starts in the Brain
  Cancer cachexia is a hypothalamic programme rather than a consequence of tumour nutrient consumption, so appetite circuitry changes should precede weight loss and should be reversible without shrinking the tumour.
• Theory 01 · Dormancy Is a Plumbing Problem
  Tumour dormancy is maintained by an angiogenic balance rather than by immune surveillance, so dormant micrometastases should wake when the balance tips toward vessel formation, and anti-angiogenic therapy can paradoxically end dormancy.
• Theory 02 · Cells Leave When the Stroma Yields
  Metastatic shedding is triggered by mechanical failure of the surrounding stroma rather than by the accumulation of mutations, so the timing of dissemination should follow the tumour's stress state and the stiffness of its environment rather than its mutational burden.
• Theory 03 · Resistance Is a Collective Effect
  Drug resistance emerges as a population-level response mediated by paracrine signalling rather than from rare pre-existing mutants, so resistance should appear above a critical cell density and be delayed by disrupting signalling rather than by escalating dose.

Public Health & Epidemiology

• Theory 11 · Effectiveness Estimates Inherit History
  Vaccine effectiveness estimates are biased by prior exposure history rather than only by confounding, so cohorts with different infection histories should yield different effectiveness for the same vaccine, and the bias should be predictable from serology.
• Theory 09 · Herd Immunity Is a Contact Problem
  The herd immunity threshold is set by the heterogeneity of contacts rather than by the reproduction number alone, so populations with the same R0 can have different thresholds, and estimates that ignore contact structure mislead policy in both directions.
• Theory 08 · Screening Works Through Sojourn Time
  The benefit of a screening programme is set by the sojourn time of the detectable preclinical phase rather than by test sensitivity, so a highly sensitive test for a fast-growing cancer produces no mortality benefit, and programmes should be selected by sojourn time rather than by test performance.

Tribology & Wear

• Theory 15 · Implant Wear Is a Kinematics Problem
  Wear of joint replacements is set by the kinematic path of the joint rather than by the material pair, so implants with identical materials can differ several-fold in wear depending on patient activity and implant alignment.
• Theory 12 · Running-In Is a Critical Transition
  Running-in is a self-organised critical process in which surfaces converge on a characteristic roughness rather than simply smoothing, so the steady state should be set by load and material rather than by initial finish, and parts should converge to it from either direction.
• Theory 13 · The Debris Sets the Wear Rate
  Wear rate is controlled by the size and hardness of third-body debris trapped in the contact rather than by the properties of the two sliding surfaces, so identical material pairs can wear at very different rates depending on what particles are present.
• Theory 14 · Wear Is a Scale Effect
  Abrasive wear rates depend on the ratio of particle size to contact size rather than on absolute particle size, so the same abrasive produces different wear in a small and a large contact, and laboratory tests on small specimens systematically mis-rank materials.

Transport & Logistics

• Theory 18 · Last-Mile Emissions Track Stops
  Last-mile delivery emissions are set by stop density rather than by vehicle type, so electrification without route consolidation delivers less than consolidation with conventional vehicles, and policy should target drops per kilometre rather than fleet composition.
• Theory 17 · Freight Shifts on Reliability, Not Price
  Shippers choose mode on the reliability of transit time rather than on its average cost, so modal shift policies that subsidise price fail while those that guarantee arrival windows succeed, and the effect should appear at a variance threshold.
• Theory 16 · Port Queues Are a Berth Problem
  Port congestion is set by berth allocation and handling rate rather than by the number of vessels arriving, so queues can form at low traffic and clear at high traffic depending on scheduling, and adding berths without changing allocation can make queues worse.
• Theory 19 · Rail Capacity Is Terminal Dwell
  Freight rail line capacity is limited by terminal dwell time rather than by track mileage, so terminals that hold wagons longer reduce network throughput more than a missing section of track, and investment should target classification rather than new line.

Index narrowed to the focused science collection. Biological and ecological population dynamics, genetics, physiology and engineering are retained. Source numbering remains historical; no remaining hypothesis has been promoted to a finding.