Theory 05/Selection optimises
Bet-Hedging Is Locally Suboptimal
The claim
Bet-hedging strategies are suboptimal in the arithmetic mean and optimal in the geometric mean, so which is 'optimal' depends on the averaging.
01Mechanism
Variance in reproductive success reduces long-run growth even when the expected value is higher.
02Prediction
Hedging should appear where variance is high.
03Refutation
Hedging tracking mean fitness would remove the geometric argument.