Theory 90/Inventory cycle/Termination phase
Termination Is a Glut Threshold
The claim
The cycle turns when the ratio of inventory to sales crosses a threshold, triggering order cuts that overshoot in the other direction.
01Mechanism
Excess stock forces cuts; the overshoot begins the next cycle.
02Prediction
Turning points should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Turning points tracking confidence would remove stock.