Theory 89/Inventory cycle/Progression phase
Amplification Is a Bullwhip Ratio
The claim
Order amplification is set by the ratio of lead time to demand smoothing, so longer lead times amplify variability more.
01Mechanism
Each tier forecasts from orders; lead time lengthens the loop and increases overshoot.
02Prediction
Amplification should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Amplification tracking demand variance would remove lead time.