Theory 208/Power outages/Rate lens
Outages Propagate at a Rate
The claim
The size of a blackout is set by the rate of cascade propagation relative to operator intervention, not by the initial fault.
01Mechanism
Each overloaded element redistributes load; if propagation outpaces control, the cascade runs to completion.
02Prediction
Size should track the rate ratio.
03Refutation
Size tracking initial fault would remove propagation speed.