Theory 02/Monsoons/Threshold lens
Monsoons Fail on Recycling
The claim
Monsoon collapse occurs below a threshold in soil-moisture recycling, so rainfall fails abruptly rather than declining with the large-scale flow.
01Mechanism
A large fraction of rainfall is re-evaporated from the land; below the recycling threshold the circulation loses its moisture source and cannot sustain itself.
02Prediction
Collapse should occur at a recycling fraction rather than following insolation.
03Refutation
Gradual decline tracking large-scale flow would remove the recycling threshold.