Theory 01/Monsoons/Rate lens
Onset Is a Rate, Not a Peak
The claim
Monsoon onset is set by the rate at which the land-sea thermal contrast develops rather than by its eventual peak.
01Mechanism
Onset requires the contrast to carry moist convection across a threshold before the seasonal cycle turns; the rate decides whether it gets there in time.
02Prediction
Onset date should track contrast rate more than peak contrast.
03Refutation
Onset tracking peak contrast would remove the rate dependence.