Theory 07/Speed vs Accuracy/Earthquake warning
Early Warning Trades Magnitude
The claim
Earthquake early warning speed trades against magnitude accuracy, so the fastest alerts systematically underestimate the largest events.
01Mechanism
Magnitude estimation requires a few seconds of waveform; truncating the window biases toward smaller estimates, and the bias is worst for large ruptures.
02Prediction
Fastest alerts should underestimate magnitude most.
03Refutation
Magnitude accuracy independent of warning time would remove the trade-off.