Incoprea Theory
Vol. XX · 49

Theory 02/Speed vs Accuracy/Decision making

Confidence Costs Time

The claim

The operating point between decision speed and confidence is set by the reward rate, so the same subject shifts along the frontier when the payoff changes.

01Mechanism

Evidence accumulates toward a bound; a lower bound is faster and less certain, and the optimal bound depends on how rewards trade against delay.

02Prediction

Subjects should shift their bound when reward rate changes.

03Refutation

Fixed bounds across payoff conditions would remove the optimisation.