Theory 57/Networks & Connectivity/Power grids
Cascades Follow Topology
The claim
The size of a cascading failure is set by the ratio of load to spare capacity at the most loaded cut-set, not by the size of the initial fault.
01Mechanism
Failure propagates when redistributed load exceeds capacity; the cut-set with least margin determines the extent.
02Prediction
Cascade size should track the margin ratio.
03Refutation
Cascade size tracking initial fault would remove the topology.