Theory 117/Forestry & Fire Ecology
WUI Risk Is Defensible Space
The claim
Wildland-urban interface loss is set by the ratio of defensible space to ember load rather than by proximity to vegetation.
01The mechanism
Most home loss comes from ember accumulation, which defensible space reduces; proximity sets exposure but not vulnerability.
02Predictions
- P1Loss should track the ratio.
- P2Proximity alone should mispredict.
03Refutation
Loss tracking proximity would remove the space term.