Theory 118/Forestry & Fire Ecology
Prescribed Burns Are a Consumption Ratio
The claim
Prescribed burn effectiveness is set by the ratio of fuel consumed to the fuel reduction target rather than by burn area.
01The mechanism
Hazard reduction depends on how much fuel was removed, not how many hectares were treated; a large incomplete burn can achieve little.
02Predictions
- P1Effectiveness should track the ratio.
- P2Area alone should mispredict.
03Refutation
Effectiveness tracking area would remove the consumption term.