Theory 100/Veterinary Medicine
Spillover Is an Interface
The claim
Wildlife disease spillover risk is set by the density of the human-wildlife interface rather than by wildlife reservoir prevalence.
01The mechanism
Spillover requires contact; prevalence in a reservoir that never meets people produces no human cases regardless of how high it is.
02Predictions
- P1Risk should track interface density.
- P2Reservoir prevalence alone should mispredict.
03Refutation
Risk tracking prevalence would remove the interface term.