Theory 099/Veterinary Medicine
Cold Chain Is Excursion Time
The claim
Vaccine cold chain failure is set by the ratio of cumulative excursion time to the permitted limit rather than by the worst temperature reached.
01The mechanism
Antigen degradation accumulates with time at temperature; a brief extreme and a long mild excursion can be equivalent.
02Predictions
- P1Failure should track the ratio.
- P2Peak temperature alone should mispredict.
03Refutation
Failure tracking peak temperature would remove the time term.