Theory 036/Mind & Behaviour /Judgement
Risk Perception Tracks the Derivative
Risk is assumed to track how bad things are. It may track whether they are getting worse.
Perceived risk tracks the rate of change of reported events rather than their level, so a declining hazard feels safer than a stable one at a higher level.
01The evidence
Public concern often rises during improving trends and falls during stable high-incidence periods, which is a pattern a level-based model cannot explain.
02The tension
Risk-perception models use event frequency or severity. Those predict concern proportional to level, which contradicts the observed dynamics.
03The mechanism
The perceptual system is tuned to change, not to level. A hazard that is worsening generates a larger signal than one that is high but stable, and concern follows the signal.
That predicts a derivative effect, with the consequence that risk communication which emphasises levels may reduce concern during improvements and fail to raise it during plateaus.
04What this is not
Level models predict concern from frequency. This predicts it from trend, which explains concern during improvement.
05Predictions
- P1Concern should correlate with trend better than with level.
- P2A declining hazard should feel safer than a stable higher one.
- P3Framing the trend should shift concern at fixed level.
06Refutation
Concern tracking level at controlled trend would restore the level model.
07What it changes
It would change how risk is communicated.