Incoprea Theory
Volume VIII · 100

Theory 068/Information & Computation /Reliability engineering

Tolerance Needs a Multiplicity

More replicas are assumed to be safer. Beyond a point they add correlated failure modes.

The claim

Fault tolerance requires redundancy of a specific multiplicity set by the failure model rather than by the number of replicas, so adding replicas beyond the requirement adds cost without reliability when failures are correlated.

01The evidence

Distributed consensus requires a quorum, and systems with more replicas than the quorum show diminishing reliability gains and new correlated failure paths.

02The tension

Reliability is often pursued by adding replicas, which assumes independence. Shared infrastructure breaks that assumption and makes extra replicas marginal.

03The mechanism

Tolerance to f failures requires a multiplicity determined by the failure model: crash, omission, or Byzantine. Beyond that, extra replicas do not expand the tolerated set.

That makes the multiplicity the requirement, and predicts that reliability should saturate once the quorum is met, with additional replicas adding correlated risk.

04What this is not

Replica-count reliability

Count models assume independence. This uses a multiplicity requirement, which predicts saturation and correlated risk.

05Predictions

  • P1Reliability should saturate at the required multiplicity.
  • P2Extra replicas should add correlated failures.
  • P3Independence assumptions should fail in shared infrastructure.

06Refutation

Reliability rising indefinitely with replicas would favour count models.

07What it changes

It would change redundancy planning.