Theory 033/Mind & Behaviour /Affective science
Emotion Is a Prediction Error
Emotion is read from the body's state. It may be read from the mismatch between the state and the forecast.
Emotional intensity tracks the prediction error of bodily signals rather than their absolute state, so the same heart rate can feel calm or anxious depending on what was expected.
01The evidence
Arousal manipulations produce different emotions depending on context and expectation, which is the classic finding that the same bodily state can be labelled differently.
02The tension
Bodily-state models predict that intensity should track physiological deviation from baseline. They struggle with cases where identical deviation produces different intensities.
03The mechanism
The brain forecasts its own bodily state and compares the forecast with afferent input. The error signal is what is felt, and its magnitude sets intensity while its context sets the label.
That predicts intensity should depend on the mismatch rather than on the level, so the same heart rate feels intense if unexpected and mild if anticipated.
04What this is not
Baseline models predict intensity from deviation. This predicts it from unexpected deviation, which separates identical states by expectation.
05Predictions
- P1Intensity should track prediction error rather than level.
- P2Expecting a state should reduce its emotional intensity.
- P3The same physiology should feel different by context.
06Refutation
Intensity tracking physiological deviation at controlled expectation would restore the baseline model.
07What it changes
It would change how emotion is measured and manipulated.