Incoprea Theory
Vol. XXXI · 129

Theory 08/Populations are well mixed

Retention Breaks Assessment

The claim

Stock assessments that assume mixing overestimate recovery when larvae are retained near spawning grounds.

01Mechanism

Retention makes local depletion persistent rather than redistributed.

02Prediction

Recovery should lag predictions where retention is high.

03Refutation

Recovery matching mixed models would remove the retention effect.