Theory 28/The rival says the effect is not there/Particle physics
Baseline or Anomaly?
The claim
Neutrino mass ordering requires a long baseline because the matter effect accumulates with distance.
01The rival explanation
Short-baseline anomalies already indicate the ordering, and the long-baseline programme is confirmatory.
02What would tell them apart
Short-baseline anomalies should be reproducible across experiments if real; a matter-effect measurement is independent of them.
03Prediction
The two approaches should agree once both are precise.
04Refutation
If short-baseline anomalies fail to replicate, the rival wins.