Theory 07/The rival is a confound/eDNA
Turnover or Effort?
The claim
Community turnover detected by eDNA precedes species loss.
01The rival explanation
Turnover is detected earlier simply because composition is easier to measure than absence, so any method shows turnover first.
02What would tell them apart
Sequencing depth can be held constant while species genuinely decline; detection bias should vanish at high depth, turnover should not.
03Prediction
The lead time should persist at saturating sequencing depth.
04Refutation
If the lead vanishes with depth, the rival wins.