Theory 11/The rival is a different mechanism/Seismology
Roughness or Magnitude?
The claim
Aftershock decay reflects mainshock slip heterogeneity.
01The rival explanation
Aftershock productivity simply scales with mainshock magnitude through the stress drop, with no need for roughness.
02What would tell them apart
Two mainshocks of equal magnitude but different slip roughness should differ in decay.
03Prediction
Decay should differ at matched magnitude.
04Refutation
If decay is fixed at a given magnitude, the rival wins.