Theory 46/Fire regime/Onset phase
Ignition Needs a Dryness Threshold
The claim
A fire starts only above a threshold in the ratio of fuel dryness to ignition energy, so the same lightning strike ignites one year and not another.
01Mechanism
Combustion requires the fuel to release heat faster than it is lost; the ratio sets ignition.
02Prediction
Ignition should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Ignition tracking ignition sources would remove fuel state.