Theory 05/Physiological deterioration/Continuous wearable monitoring
Deterioration Is a Variance Change
The claim
Physiological collapse is preceded by a rise in the variance of resting signals rather than by a change in their mean, so the warning lies in variability.
01Mechanism
Regulatory systems lose reserve before they lose set point; as reserve falls, the system wanders further around the same average.
02Prediction
Variance should rise before the mean shifts.
03Refutation
Collapse without a preceding variance change would remove the early-warning claim.
04What makes it checkable
Continuous wearable monitoring gives the densely sampled baselines needed to estimate variance change; intermittent clinic measurements sample too sparsely to see it.
05Why it was not testable before
A measurement every few months cannot estimate variability; the signal only exists at continuous sampling.