Theory 200/Water networks/Threshold lens
Bursts Follow a Pressure Threshold
The claim
Pipe bursts occur above a threshold in the ratio of operating pressure to pipe strength, so a modest pressure reduction produces a large fall in failures.
01Mechanism
Failure probability rises steeply with the pressure-to-strength ratio; the threshold marks where the distribution's tail is reached.
02Prediction
Bursts should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Bursts tracking pipe age would remove pressure.