Theory 191/Standards adoption/Threshold lens
Standards Tip on a Base Threshold
The claim
A standard takes over above a threshold in the ratio of its installed base to the incumbent's, so a small lead can be decisive.
01Mechanism
Users choose the standard expected to dominate; the ratio determines which expectation is self-fulfilling.
02Prediction
Takeover should occur at a base ratio.
03Refutation
Takeover tracking technical merit would remove expectations.