Theory 64/Shivering/Rate lens
Shivering Follows Cooling Rate
The claim
Shivering onset is set by the rate of core cooling rather than by core temperature, so rapid cooling triggers it before the body is cold.
01Mechanism
Thermoregulatory gain responds to the derivative; a fast drop is treated as a larger threat than a low but stable temperature.
02Prediction
Onset should track cooling rate.
03Refutation
Onset tracking temperature would remove the derivative.