Theory 125/Honey crystallisation/Threshold lens
Stability Needs a Moisture Threshold
The claim
Honey resists fermentation only below a threshold in water content, so a small rise turns a stable product into a fermenting one.
01Mechanism
Osmotic pressure inhibits yeast; the threshold marks the point where water activity is high enough for growth.
02Prediction
Fermentation should begin above a moisture threshold.
03Refutation
Fermentation tracking sugar content would remove water activity.