Theory 28/Glacial lake outbursts/Rate lens
Outburst Timing Is Growth Against Strength
The claim
The timing of a glacial lake outburst is set by the rate of lake growth relative to moraine strength, not by lake size.
01Mechanism
The dam weakens as the lake deepens and the ice core melts; the race between rising water and declining strength sets the failure time.
02Prediction
Outburst timing should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Timing tracking lake volume would remove dam strength.