# Volume XXIII — 29 ungrouped theories, new file
THEORIES = [
{"n":1,"slug":"tardigrade-vitrification","tag":"Cryobiology","subject":"Tardigrades","title":"Vitrification Needs a Sugar Ratio","claim":"Tardigrade survival of desiccation is set by the ratio of trehalose concentration to cooling rate, so slow drying protects an animal that fast drying kills at the same sugar level.","mechanism":"Protection requires the cytoplasm to vitrify rather than crystallise; vitrification needs the sugar to concentrate faster than ice nuclei can grow.","predictions":["Survival should track the ratio across drying rates.","Sugar concentration alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Survival tracking water content would remove the vitrification criterion.","resists":"It is simultaneously a molecular, cellular and organismal claim, and the protective state exists only while the animal is neither alive in the ordinary sense nor dead."},
{"n":2,"slug":"wood-frog-freeze-glucose","tag":"Cryobiology","subject":"Wood frogs","title":"Freezing Is a Delivery Problem","claim":"Freeze tolerance in wood frogs is set by the ratio of glucose delivery rate to ice propagation rate, so a fast freeze outruns the cryoprotectant even in a fully provisioned animal.","mechanism":"Ice forms in extracellular spaces and must be matched by intracellular glucose before osmotic stress damages cells; the two rates are set independently.","predictions":["Survival should track the rate ratio.","Glucose reserves alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Survival tracking cryoprotectant concentration would remove the propagation term.","resists":"The animal must be partly frozen to survive being frozen — a state that breaks the usual organism/environment boundary."},
{"n":3,"slug":"mussel-adhesion-cure-rate","tag":"Adhesion","subject":"Mussels","title":"Underwater Glue Needs Cure Time","claim":"Mussel attachment strength is set by the ratio of adhesive curing rate to the rate at which the load is applied, so a joint that fails under fast loading holds under slow.","mechanism":"Curing converts a fluid precursor into a load-bearing network; if load arrives before the network forms, the plaque debonds and never recovers.","predictions":["Strength should track the ratio.","Cure chemistry alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Strength tracking adhesive composition would remove the loading rate.","resists":"Adhesion is a materials property, a biomechanical one and an ecological one, and the plaque is an organ that is not part of the organism."},
{"n":4,"slug":"gecko-contact-splitting","tag":"Adhesion","subject":"Geckos","title":"Gecko Grip Is Contact Splitting","claim":"Gecko adhesion is set by the ratio of contact splitting to surface roughness, so the same toe pads grip smooth glass and fail on a rough surface of matching scale.","mechanism":"Adhesion comes from many small contacts; splitting raises the total force until the feature size approaches the surface roughness and contact area collapses.","predictions":["Grip should peak at a roughness matching the setal spacing.","Setal density alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Grip increasing monotonically with setal density would remove the roughness term.","resists":"It is a nanoscale mechanism expressed as an organismal capability, with no intermediate level where the claim can be tested cleanly."},
{"n":5,"slug":"silk-crystallite-ratio","tag":"Biomaterials","subject":"Spider silk","title":"Silk Toughness Is a Two-Phase Ratio","claim":"Spider silk toughness is set by the ratio of crystalline beta-sheet size to amorphous chain length, so neither component alone predicts performance.","mechanism":"Crystals provide strength while amorphous chains provide extensibility; toughness peaks where the load transfers between them at an intermediate ratio.","predictions":["Toughness should peak at an intermediate ratio.","Crystallinity alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Toughness increasing with crystallinity would remove the trade-off.","resists":"The property is a bulk material property that depends on molecular architecture, and the same silk is used for structurally different tasks."},
{"n":6,"slug":"structural-colour-period","tag":"Biophotonics","subject":"Butterfly wings","title":"Colour Is a Period Ratio","claim":"Structural colour in butterfly wings is set by the ratio of nanostructure period to wavelength, so a 5% change in development produces a different hue without any pigment change.","mechanism":"Interference depends on the optical path difference; the period relative to wavelength determines which colours reinforce.","predictions":["Hue should track the period ratio.","Pigment content alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Hue tracking pigment would remove the structural term.","resists":"A photonic crystal is built by a developing organism, so the claim spans physics, development and sexual selection at once."},
{"n":7,"slug":"firefly-coupling-dispersion","tag":"Collective behaviour","subject":"Fireflies","title":"Synchrony Is Coupling Against Spread","claim":"Firefly synchrony emerges only when the ratio of coupling strength to frequency dispersion exceeds a threshold, so a population of well-coupled but variable fireflies stays asynchronous.","mechanism":"Each flash nudges neighbours' phases; dispersion pulls them apart, and the balance determines whether a common phase wins.","predictions":["Synchrony should appear above a coupling ratio.","Population density alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Synchrony tracking density would remove frequency dispersion.","resists":"The phenomenon is neither an individual behaviour nor a population statistic; it exists only in the coupling."},
{"n":8,"slug":"cicada-prime-predator","tag":"Life history","subject":"Cicadas","title":"Prime Cycles Dodge Predators","claim":"Periodical cicada brood intervals are set by the ratio of predator cycle length to developmental time, favouring prime numbers because they minimise overlap with shorter cycles.","mechanism":"A brood emerging every N years coincides with a predator cycling every k years whenever k divides N; primes minimise the number of divisors.","predictions":["Brood intervals should be prime or rarely composite.","Predator abundance alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Intervals tracking climate would remove the number-theoretic argument.","resists":"It is a number-theoretic claim about an ecological strategy, which fits neither the mechanism families nor the ecological frames."},
{"n":9,"slug":"locust-crowding-quality","tag":"Phase change","subject":"Locusts","title":"Phase Change Is Crowding Against Food","claim":"The locust phase transition is set by the ratio of crowding to food quality, so well-fed crowded insects remain solitary while hungry crowded ones gregarise.","mechanism":"Crowding triggers serotonin release while food quality modulates it; the ratio determines whether the gregarious programme is expressed.","predictions":["Phase should track the ratio.","Density alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Phase tracking density would remove the nutritional term.","resists":"One genome produces two animals with different morphologies, behaviours and ecologies — the unit of selection is unclear."},
{"n":10,"slug":"monarch-compass-calibration","tag":"Navigation","subject":"Monarch butterflies","title":"Compass Needs Clock Accuracy","claim":"Monarch navigation accuracy is set by the ratio of circadian clock precision to the rate the sun moves, so a slightly inaccurate clock produces a large directional error.","mechanism":"The butterfly compensates for the sun's movement using a time-compensated compass; error in time maps to error in heading.","predictions":["Heading error should track clock error.","Sun position alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Heading tracking sun azimuth would remove the clock.","resists":"It requires an inherited map, a learned clock and a learned correction, with none of the three sufficient alone."},
{"n":11,"slug":"salmon-imprinting-window","tag":"Navigation","subject":"Salmon","title":"Homing Needs an Imprint Window","claim":"Salmon homing fidelity is set by the ratio of the imprinting window to migration duration, so a fish that imprints late cannot resolve its natal stream on return.","mechanism":"Olfactory imprinting occurs during a narrow developmental window; the memory must be laid down before migration and remain stable for years.","predictions":["Fidelity should track the ratio.","Migration distance alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Fidelity tracking river size would remove the timing window.","resists":"A memory formed in one life stage governs behaviour in a later one, across an ocean and several years."},
{"n":12,"slug":"eel-lipid-distance","tag":"Navigation","subject":"Eels","title":"Migration Is Fuel Against Distance","claim":"Eel spawning migration success is set by the ratio of lipid reserves to distance, so a fish that runs out of fat before arrival dies without spawning.","mechanism":"The migration is powered entirely by stored lipid; the ratio determines whether the fish arrives with enough left to mature gonads.","predictions":["Arrival should track the ratio.","Body size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Arrival tracking distance would remove the reserve term.","resists":"The spawning ground was unknown for centuries because the animals are never observed there — the theory outruns the evidence."},
{"n":13,"slug":"bird-departure-fuel-wind","tag":"Navigation","subject":"Migratory birds","title":"Departure Is Fuel Against Wind","claim":"Migratory departure timing is set by the ratio of fuel load to wind assistance, so birds depart with less fuel when the wind is favourable and wait when it is not.","mechanism":"Flight range depends on fuel and wind; the ratio determines whether the crossing is possible, and the departure rule tracks it.","predictions":["Departure should track the ratio.","Fuel load alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Departure tracking date would remove the wind term.","resists":"A decision made at one place depends on conditions hundreds of kilometres away, which the bird has no direct access to."},
{"n":14,"slug":"whale-song-transmission","tag":"Culture","subject":"Cetaceans","title":"Song Spreads Against Innovation","claim":"Whale song revolutions occur when the ratio of population connectedness to innovation rate falls below a threshold, so a well-connected ocean transmits novelty quickly and a fragmented one preserves old songs.","mechanism":"Songs spread through contact; the ratio determines whether a new variant reaches the population before the old one is replaced locally.","predictions":["Song turnover should track the ratio.","Population size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Turnover tracking population size would remove connectedness.","resists":"Cultural evolution without a genetic substrate, in a population whose contacts are only partly observable."},
{"n":15,"slug":"ant-quorum-recruitment","tag":"Collective behaviour","subject":"Ants","title":"Colony Choice Needs a Quorum","claim":"Ant colony decision accuracy is set by the ratio of quorum threshold to recruitment rate, so a low threshold commits too early and a slow recruitment reaches it too late.","mechanism":"Recruitment amplifies support for one option while a quorum rule ends deliberation; the ratio sets the speed-accuracy operating point.","predictions":["Accuracy should peak at an intermediate ratio.","Colony size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Accuracy increasing with colony size would remove the threshold.","resists":"The decision is made by no individual, and the mechanism is a threshold rule embedded in a network rather than in a brain."},
{"n":16,"slug":"bee-waggle-decoding","tag":"Collective behaviour","subject":"Honeybees","title":"Dance Precision Is Duration","claim":"Forager error in a honeybee colony is set by the ratio of waggle duration to distance, so accuracy degrades with distance because the code is linear while the error is not.","mechanism":"Distance is encoded in waggle duration; both the signal and its noise grow with distance, and the ratio determines the usable range.","predictions":["Error should grow with distance as a ratio.","Waggle duration alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Error independent of distance would remove the encoding.","resists":"An abstract symbol system — duration for distance, angle for bearing — in an insect, which fits no functional category."},
{"n":17,"slug":"web-silk-investment","tag":"Biomaterials","subject":"Orb webs","title":"Web Design Is Silk Against Capture","claim":"Orb web geometry is set by the ratio of silk investment to capture probability, so a spider under food stress builds a smaller web with wider spacing rather than a smaller copy.","mechanism":"Silk is metabolically expensive and must be replaced; geometry trades thread density against the chance of intercepting prey.","predictions":["Geometry should track the ratio.","Web area alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Geometry tracking hunger would remove the cost term.","resists":"The web is an extended phenotype — a structure that computes, in the sense that its geometry embodies the animal's decision."},
{"n":18,"slug":"mycelial-cord-cost","tag":"Mycology","subject":"Fungi","title":"Foraging Is Patch Against Cord","claim":"Mycelial foraging strategy is set by the ratio of resource patchiness to cord construction cost, so a fungus builds cords only when patches are far apart and worth reaching.","mechanism":"Cords transport nutrients over distance but cost biomass; the ratio determines whether a network or diffuse growth pays.","predictions":["Cord formation should track the ratio.","Patch number alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Cord formation tracking resource amount would remove the cost.","resists":"The organism is a network without a body, so growth and behaviour are the same process."},
{"n":19,"slug":"prion-strain-fidelity","tag":"Proteinopathy","subject":"Prions","title":"Strains Are Fidelity Against Stability","claim":"The number of prion strains an animal supports is set by the ratio of conformational stability to replication fidelity, so error-prone replication produces more strains.","mechanism":"Strains are conformations that template their own folding; fidelity determines whether a new conformation persists as a strain or reverts.","predictions":["Strain diversity should track the ratio.","Incubation time alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Diversity tracking dose would remove fidelity.","resists":"Information is transmitted without nucleic acid, and the 'species' is a shape."},
{"n":20,"slug":"capsid-pressure-strength","tag":"Virology","subject":"Virus capsids","title":"Capsids Balance Pressure and Strength","claim":"Capsid stability is set by the ratio of internal cargo pressure to shell strength, so a fuller capsid is more fragile despite being more compact.","mechanism":"Packaged DNA exerts outward pressure while the shell resists it; the ratio determines whether the capsid survives until it is triggered to release.","predictions":["Stability should fall as packaging density rises.","Capsid thickness alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Stability tracking shell thickness would remove cargo pressure.","resists":"The particle is a machine with no metabolism, sitting between chemistry and organism."},
{"n":21,"slug":"biofilm-dispersal-timing","tag":"Microbiology","subject":"Biofilms","title":"Dispersal Follows Nutrient Depletion","claim":"Biofilm dispersal is triggered when the ratio of nutrient depletion to matrix degradation capacity crosses a threshold, so a well-fed biofilm stays put even when crowded.","mechanism":"Matrix holds cells while nutrients sustain them; when depletion outpaces the colony's ability to break down its own matrix, dispersal begins.","predictions":["Dispersal should track the ratio.","Cell density alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Dispersal tracking density would remove the nutrient term.","resists":"A collective that behaves like an organism but is dissolved by its own decision to leave."},
{"n":22,"slug":"enzyme-moonlighting-shift","tag":"Protein function","subject":"Enzyme moonlighting","title":"Second Functions Need a Shift","claim":"An enzyme's secondary function appears when the ratio of secondary substrate to primary substrate concentration crosses a threshold, so moonlighting is a concentration phenomenon rather than a structural one.","mechanism":"The active site catalyses both reactions with different efficiencies; the ratio of substrate concentrations determines which flux dominates.","predictions":["Secondary activity should appear above a concentration ratio.","Structural similarity alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Secondary activity independent of concentration would remove the competition.","resists":"One sequence, two functions, no way to assign the protein to a single functional category."},
{"n":23,"slug":"venom-handling-ratio","tag":"Venom","subject":"Snake venom","title":"Venom Composition Is a Handling Ratio","claim":"Snake venom composition is set by the ratio of prey handling time to prey size, so species that subdue large prey quickly invest in fast-acting toxins rather than in quantity.","mechanism":"Venom must immobilise before prey escapes or injures the snake; the ratio determines whether speed or dose is the binding constraint.","predictions":["Composition should track the ratio.","Venom yield alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Composition tracking prey size would remove handling time.","resists":"A metabolic product that coevolves with prey behaviour, so the unit of selection spans two species."},
{"n":24,"slug":"eggshell-porosity-balance","tag":"Reproductive biology","subject":"Bird eggs","title":"Shell Porosity Is Two Losses","claim":"Eggshell porosity is set by the ratio of oxygen demand to water loss tolerance, so a high-altitude egg must be more porous for oxygen and therefore loses more water.","mechanism":"Gas exchange and water loss share the same pores; the ratio determines the pore density that satisfies both constraints.","predictions":["Porosity should track the ratio.","Egg size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Porosity tracking altitude would remove the water constraint.","resists":"A structure that solves a two-variable optimisation at the boundary between embryo and atmosphere."},
{"n":25,"slug":"elaiosome-dispersal-predation","tag":"Seed ecology","subject":"Ant-dispersed seeds","title":"Bribes Are Distance Against Predation","claim":"Investment in an elaiosome is set by the ratio of dispersal distance gained to seed predation risk, so plants pay ants more where the alternative is being eaten.","mechanism":"The elaiosome is a payment that induces ants to carry the seed; the ratio determines how much payment is worth making.","predictions":["Elaiosome size should track the ratio.","Seed size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Investment tracking seed size would remove the predation term.","resists":"A plant trait that exists only because of an animal behaviour, with the fitness accounting spread across two kingdoms."},
{"n":26,"slug":"whale-fall-lipid-sulphide","tag":"Deep sea","subject":"Whale falls","title":"Whale Falls Run on Lipid","claim":"The duration of a whale-fall community is set by the ratio of carcass lipid to sulphide production rate, so a fat carcass supports chemosynthesis for decades.","mechanism":"Bacteria degrade lipid and produce sulphide, which fuels the chemosynthetic community; the ratio sets how long the supply lasts.","predictions":["Community duration should track the ratio.","Carcass size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Duration tracking carcass mass would remove the lipid composition.","resists":"An ecosystem whose entire existence depends on a single death event, so community and resource are the same object."},
{"n":27,"slug":"vent-symbiont-transmission","tag":"Deep sea","subject":"Hydrothermal vents","title":"Vent Symbiosis Needs Vent Lifetime","claim":"Symbiont transmission strategy at vents is set by the ratio of vent lifetime to host generation time, so short-lived vents select for horizontal acquisition.","mechanism":"Vertical transmission requires the vent to persist across host generations; when it does not, hosts must acquire symbionts from the environment at each new site.","predictions":["Transmission mode should track the ratio.","Host phylogeny alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Transmission fixed by lineage would remove the habitat lifetime.","resists":"The habitat is ephemeral and the symbiosis is obligate, so neither partner can be said to have a niche."},
{"n":28,"slug":"cavefish-eye-cost","tag":"Evolution","subject":"Cave fish","title":"Eye Loss Is Saving Against Cost","claim":"Eye regression in cave fish proceeds only when the ratio of energetic saving to pleiotropic cost exceeds one, so some cave populations retain eyes because losing them would break something else.","mechanism":"Eyes are expensive and useless in darkness, but the same genes pattern other structures; the ratio determines whether selection favours loss.","predictions":["Regression should vary with pleiotropy.","Time in cave alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Regression tracking cave age would remove the cost term.","resists":"Trait loss is the phenotype, and the gene that causes it is doing two jobs — neither 'adaptation' nor 'degeneration' fits."},
{"n":29,"slug":"beetle-fog-bump-spacing","tag":"Biomimetics","subject":"Desert beetles","title":"Fog Harvesting Is Bump Spacing","claim":"Water capture by a fog-harvesting beetle is set by the ratio of bump spacing to droplet size, so a surface tuned to one droplet spectrum captures poorly in another.","mechanism":"Droplets nucleate on hydrophilic bumps and coalesce until they run down hydrophobic channels; the ratio determines whether droplets reach critical size before the wind removes them.","predictions":["Capture should peak at a spacing ratio.","Surface chemistry alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Capture increasing with bump density would remove the droplet-size term.","resists":"It is a physical effect that is also an adaptation, and the animal's behaviour of facing the wind is part of the mechanism."},
]