Theory 99/Cosmic/Gravitational waves
Merger Rate Is Inspiral Time
The claim
The observed merger rate of compact binaries is set by the ratio of inspiral time to the formation rate, so a population that forms early merges late and is observed at a lower rate.
01Mechanism
A binary must both form and spiral in; the delay between the two shifts the observed distribution.
02Prediction
Rate should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Rate tracking formation alone would remove inspiral delay.