Theory 19/Exploration vs Exploitation/Seeds
Waiting Costs Establishment
The claim
Seed dormancy trades the chance of a good year against the risk of dying in the soil, so the optimal dormancy depends on the variance of conditions.
01Mechanism
Dormant seeds forgo current establishment for future opportunity; mortality in the bank sets the cost of waiting.
02Prediction
Dormancy should rise with environmental variance.
03Refutation
Dormancy independent of variance would remove the trade-off.